While everyone in New England is worried about whether or not Christian Gonzalez will be back on the field after being limited late in the week with his hamstring injury, the Saints got a lot of good news on their injury front - which will make this matchup much more interesting than it looks on paper.
The Saints' defense will get top edge player Chase Young back on the line, normally at right end opposite Will Campbell, and former Chiefs safety Justin Reid. On offense, the Saints are set to have their starting line back together for the first time, as Cesar Ruiz steps into right guard to replace undrafted free agent Torricelli Simpkins, who really struggled.
Young was a big problem last season, when he averaged nearly four pressures per game (totals: 7 sacks, 12 hits, 47 hurries). You put Young up there with emerging DT Bryan Bresee (14 pressures so far), and ends Cam Jordan (13), Carl Granderson (8) and Chris Rumph, and this should be a pretty good test for Campbell and the rest of the Patriots' offensive line.
Pairing Reid with impressive third-round rookie Jonas Sanker should tighten up a back end that can get a little loose at times. Ruiz isn't great, but he's steady and calms the unit down.
The Saints getting fortified is probably the biggest headline heading into this matchup, which looks like a mismatch on paper, especially where DVOA is concerned.
Of course, the Patriots are enjoying a resurgence after their big upset over the Bills, and will be seeking validation for the three-point victory, and Drake Maye looks to build off his outstanding second half.
A look at the matchup, including what worries me about the Saints, where the Patriots can take advantage, top matchups, film analysis and my game pick:
What worries me about the Saints
- Speed on the outside: Rashid Shaheed is one of the fastest WRs in the league in terms of play speed, and HC Kellen Moore will use that speed in a variety of ways to get him open, and spring others. Chris Olave is healthy and can still move, and old friend, Brandin Cooks, is still kicking around. If the Patriots don't have Gonzalez, there will be at least one matchup for the Saints to exploit.
- Multiple tight ends: The Patriots are 28th in DVOA against tight ends, and the Saints have a full complement with Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, Taysome Hill and Jack Stoll. Johnson is a tough matchup, and this is not an area of strength for the Patriots, especially if Kyle Dugger is pressed into service for Jaylinn Hawkins.
- Versatile backs with speed: While the Patriots' run defense is great besides the occasional issues on the edge, they also lack in covering backs. Alvin Kamara is still one of the best in the league, and Kendre Miller is no slouch either.
- Spencer Rattler's mobility: The 2024 fifth-round pick has played well enough under more that no one is really talking about rookie Tyler Shough (second round) anymore. He hasn't been great, but he can be tough to defend. He doesn't turn the ball over, and he's tough to sack. Rattler isn't very big (6-foot) so it's better to keep him in the pocket. He can really move and will pick up yards with his legs and throws the ball well on the move. Rattler has a good arm, but this offense rarely uses it (he's 31st in yards/attempt, 34th in yards/completion) outside of the 87-yard bomb last week to Shaheed. But it seems like he's growing a bit in the Moore offense that loves to be in shotgun. .... Rattler has excellent short-range accuracy (76.4% completion rate on passes under 10 yards), solid third down efficiency (57.8% conversion rate), good under pressure (61.4% completion rate when pressured).
- The defensive line: Davon Godchaux is there to only defend the run, but this group should be able to get after it in the pass rush department with Young back (who knows how much he will play). The Saints blitz 35% (9th) and only get pressure on 20% of dropbacks (31st). When they do get pressure, it works (first in pressure EPA).
- The Dome: If the Saints get going, that's one of the toughest places to play in the NFL with the noise factor. But they can also be put into a coma pretty quickly.
Where the Patriots can take advantage
- Throw it: The Saints' run defense is pretty solid, but their pass defense ranks 24th in DVOA. They are a predominant single-high safety team under Brandon Staley, and the Patriots are #2 in EPA against single high coverage. But the Saints don't give up many big plays (4th in explosive play rate allowed).
- Hit the blitz: The Saints are 9th in blitz rate and the Patriots are 3rd in EPA against the blitz. While they're at it, the Saints' passing defense is the worst against intermediate routes. They're better against deep balls.
- Big day for Boutte in return to Louisiana?: The Saints are 32nd against WR1s, which I believe translates to the X spot. It's a little puzzling because I really like RCB Kool-Aid McKinstry. Saints are better against WR2s (Stefon Diggs) at 18th. The Bills were 26th last week.
- Special teams: The Saints are 32nd in DVOA, Patriots are up to 15th. That's the biggest mismatch this week.
- Shut down Chris Olave on third down: Chris Olave is Rattler's favorite third-down target this season with 17 targets, followed by Juwan Johnson (10 targets) and Brandin Cooks (6 targets). Olave has caught 11 of those 17 targets (64.7%) for 79 yards, 1 touchdown, and 6 first downs. Johnson has been similarly efficient, catching 6 of 10 targets (60%) for 54 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 first downs. If the Patriots have Gonzalez, I like this matchup for them.
- Saints are not good in critical areas: The Saints' defense is among the league's worst in red zone and goal to go defense, while the Patriots have been good in those areas. The Saints' offense isn't great in the red zone (5 TDs on 28 red zone attempts). Of course, the Patriots' defense is among the league's worst in the red zone and goal-to-go as well.
- Playaction to take advantage of aggressiveness: I like the Saints' linebackers (Pete Werner and Demario Davis) and edge players, but they can get overaggressive on playaction and run action (19th EPA on playaction. I expect a heavy dose of that from Josh McDaniels again this week (Patriots are second in the league in PA%).
Top matchups
WR Chris Olave vs. CB Christian Gonzalez: If Gonzalez plays, this could be must-see TV.
WR Rashid Shaheed vs. CB Marcus Jones: Shaheed lines up all over the place, but he's mostly a slot. I like Jones' speed in the matchup over Carlton Davis.
LT Will Campbell vs. DEs Chase Young/Cameron Jordan: It will be interesting to see how Josh McDaniels gives help in this game because both tackles could use some. Good test for Campbell going back home.
WR Kayshon Boutte vs. CB Kool-Aid McKinstry: Two physical guys who don't mind mixing it up. This matchup could be fun.
C Garrett Bradbury/RG Mike Onwenu vs. DT Bryan Bresee: The Clemson product is really coming into his own and is a problem on all three downs.
TE Hunter Henry vs. SS Jonas Sanker: The wily vet against the excited young buck.
S Craig Woodson vs. TE Juwan Johnson: I'm hoping they don't let Dugger cover him. Could be a long day.
LB Christian Elliss vs. RB Alvin Kamara: Yeah, I'm worried about this one.
BEDARD'S GAME PICK
Season: 2-3 straight up, 3-2 spread.
Line: Patriots -3.5, 45.5 o/u
Kind of puzzled why the line is so low for this one, but I kind of agree with it. Hard to gauge how much of an impact Chase Young will have in his return, but he could swing this one if he's ready to go for a full game. I'm tempted to go with the Saints outright because the Patriots still have issues defending the pass, and the Saints have all kinds of weapons. Could really use a strong pass rush this week, but I'm not holding my breath. But in the end, I trust Drake Maye a hell of a lot more - he's on a four-game heater - than I do Rattler. But would I be surprised if the Saints win this game? No, I won't. Patriots could have a little hangover, but I'm confident Mike Vrabel is doing good work in that area this week - like he did heading into the Bills' game.
Patriots 27, Saints 20