Bedard's Breakdown: Drake Maye carried the team over the Bills, who shot themselves in the foot

Let's get this out of the way quickly.

Was the Patriots' upset over the Bills a statement game? Yes, and no. It's great that the Patriots emerged with a victory, and internally, it will continue to get players to buy in, which will pay off down the road. Winning up there on Sunday night is no small feat, especially for a program just five games into its first season. It's a statement that the program is going in the right direction, and a big step forward.

Is it a statement that the Patriots are a good team right now? Not quite yet. In many respects, the Patriots probably should have lost this game. To wit:

Also, advanced analytics were not impressed with the Patriots' victory. Their DVOA largely remained unchanged after facing, by far, the best opponent to date:

Overall: 21st ... they were 20th last week.
Offense: 13th ... 13th last week
Defense: 27th ... 28th last week
Special teams: 15th ... 10th last week.

We all know why, because we watched the game. The Bills were very much complicit in their own demise with 11 penalties - eight in the first half - and three turnovers, two in the first half. Two of the turnovers were largely unforced errors, the end-around fumble exchange and Josh Allen's interception was equally a poor route by Khalil Shakir, and poor pass/decision by Allen. And Allen reverted back to his cowboy ways, passing up checkdowns that were there to run around and try to pull plays out of his rear end.

The Patriots needed all of those things and more to happen, in order to emerge with a three-point victory.

The Bills went through the motions similar to this in their previous two games against the Dolphins and Saints. The Bills wound up winning and scoring 31 each time. They didn't this time because of drive-killing turnovers and penalties, especially in the first half. If the Patriots dropped a home game by three points when they committed eight first-half penalties (team-high 11 total) and lost the turnover margin by two (the Steelers game on steroids), fans around here would rightfully call it a game the Patriots gave away. The same should go for the Bills. 

That ends the wet blanket part of this program.

There's another reason why the Patriots ended up winning this game, when the Dolphins and Saints fell short: the Patriots have Drake Maye, and those other teams don't.

His play from the end of the final drive of the first half until the conclusion of the game was nothing short of outstanding. It was like he just elevated in front of our eyes. He went from middle-of-the-pack-ish QB to elite in the blink of an eye. Yes, he played elite for that stretch of the game against a rival on the road in that environment. Does that mean he's now elite? I'm not sure, but it sure is nice to know he's capable of that level of play, even for a half-plus.

It all started, on the final drive before halftime, on the rollout right and pass to Demario Douglas. He followed that up with a 22-yard pass to Hunter Henry, who made a terrific leaping and twisting catch. What was great about that play was earlier in the game, when Maye was struggling a bit with the Bills' pre- and post-snap coverage looks to the point he was leaving the pocket early and running into pressure, Maye didn't trust the protection on the exact same play and rushed a checkdown to TreVeyon Henderson for 4 yards (8:17 2Q). Josh McDaniels dialed the play up again on 2nd and 15, Maye trusted the protection and layered in the pass to Henry while Mack Hollins took the safeties with him deep. Maye also had a plus scramble on that drive, and would have led the Patriots to their first touchdown of the game if a) Mike Vrabel left him more time by calling a timeout before 18 seconds remained, and b) Henry caught a perfect pass after getting contacted by Matt Milano getting out of his break.

Maye's play at the end of the first half set the stage for his takeoff in the second half, where he played as good as NFL QB. 

Maye had seven plus plays in the second half alone, and five were elite plays (that earned him extra points in my grading):

- 32 yards to Diggs
- 3-7 throw to Diggs with pressure
- 24 yards to Henry over the middle, buying time for the route by staying in the pocket
- 12 yards to Diggs on the final drive when he shrugged off 320-pound DaQuan Jones instead of taking a 10-yard sack
- 19 yards hole shot to Boutte on final drive as he was about get hammered. The arm strength was not the most impressive part of that throw. It was the anticipation he threw it with. Boutte was not open when he threw it. Most decent NFL QBs make the actual throw. His timing and confidence to throw it is what stood out.

If Maye didn't take his play to another level in the second half, the Patriots aren't winning that game against a depleted Bills team that was really missed DT Ed Oliver (inactive) and Milano (out second half with injury).

But Maye did, the Patriots won, and now we see what he/they can do for a follow-up.

Here are the positional ratings against the Bills:

OFFENSE

Quarterback (4 out of 5)

If he can do that for a half, I have to leave room in my ratings for Maye to do this for an entire game. ... I'm sure some people don't want to hear it, but Maye was a bit jittery mess leaving the pocket early and not letting plays develop for about 29 minutes in the first half. I had him for one plus play (backshoulder to Boutte) and five minus plays (two sacks, knockdown, a hurry, and the checkdown to Henderson on max protect when Henry was coming open). ... Starting with the sideline pass to Douglas on the final first-half drive, I had maye for a +11.5/-2 with five of the plays being outstanding top-level quarterbacking. .... There could be some context to Maye's first-half struggles. If Rhamondre Stevenson doesn't fumble after a 7-yard gain, Diggs doesn't drop a perfectly placed ball by Maye (he led him away from the linebacker) on third down, and Vederian Lowe doesn't jump offsides, maybe he's better because he can get a rhythm as the play count piles up. ... Not sure why the Bills started blitzing Maye more in the second half (seven times - five straight times on second TD drive) when he scuffled against no blitz (once) in the first half. Maye averaged 11.7 yards per attempt against the blitz, 8.3 when not blitzed. ... Don't think Maye even put the ball in harm's way ... that's huge. He doesn't have a turnover-worthy play the past two games, and the team is 3-0 when he doesn't turn the ball over. Didn't think that was possible after Week 1. Amazing progress in a very short period of time.

Running backs (1 out of 5)

Stevenson fumbled on the same type of play. He had two hands on the ball, but when he was going to the ground, he reached his left hand out to brace his fall. Can't he just go to the turf on his chest? This continues to be a huge problem, but they have no alternative with Antonio Gibson lost for the season. ... More Henderson is not a great answer, but the more he plays, the more the game will slow down and he'll be better. But he is not going to be an every-down back, at least not yet. ... This group is among the worst in the league with yards after contact. That also has to do with the Patriots' terrible run blocking from tight ends, and the lack of execution on the second level. The line is doing a decent job before contact (13th in the league).

Receivers (2.5 out of 5)

Stefon Diggs was just outstanding in this game, as his legs looked to have more jump going against his former team (probably a factor). Will be interesting to see if he has the same burst against the Saints. Diggs had two plus-plus catches, another really good one on Maye's first throw of the second half (which was not good, left yards on the field), and his YAC of 62 was almost double the rest of the team combined (38). ... Henry had two of the best catches of the game, and he's great, but he and Austin Hooper are struggling to be consistent in blocking. Henry, who had a dropped TD and a penalty, allowed two hurries and factored into three stuffed runs. Hooper had a half-stuff and another poor run block. ... Demario Douglas sliding catch near the sideline is the type of play that could lead to more chances. ... If Maye didn't bail out of the pocket a little early and turn in that ridiculous playground pass to Diggs, Kyle Williams might have had his first big play as he was open on a deep in-cut. 

Offensive line (2.5 out of 5)

The offensive line was just so-so. McDaniels continues to hide the line in pass pro when the scoreboard allows him to. Just 13 of the 40 dropbacks were true dropback sets (33%). The week prior, it was 39%. If they had to pass block like the Chiefs, I'm not sure that would be for Maye. Seems like McDaniels is buying time for the rookies and Garrett Bradbury (clean sheet) to get more playing time together by moving the pocket at times and mixing in deceptive plays ... This was the roughest game from Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. There's film on them now, and good defensive coaches are figuring out how to attack them. And Campbell's getting a decent amount of help. It wasn't bad or anything, it was definitely acceptable, but the Bills threw a lot at them. ... This line and the tight ends can't run block worth a crap. The only good runs they get are schemed (Stevenson TD, Henderson 13 yards). All five of them struggled in the run game. This offense is not sustainable, at least against good teams - if they even face any the rest of the season. They can't devolve as an offense into just hoping for Maye to pull plays out of his rear. That leads to bad habits and bad offense - just look at the Bills and Allen. Patriots offense might have to go get a blocking TE and/or a real fullback (in addition to, now, a RB). I would use the next couple of games to work on the run game against the Saints and Titans. It HAS to get better for this team to be a real threat. It can't just be the Maye show.

DEFENSE

Defensive line (4 out of 5)

Really liked the Patriots' defensive plan for the first time all season. They took away the run/James Cook in this game, and they largely limited Allen's running by squeezing the pocket and using spies. The Patriots were not afraid of the Bills' passing weapons (they shouldn't have been), so they stacked the box a bit more - the anti-Steelers plan. Bills are very good at their multi-TE sets, and the Patriots matched them with a heavier line and more LBs (Jahlani Tavai) and kind of kicked their ass up front with 2+ TEs on the field. ... I thought all the defensive tackles were really good in this game (aside from the two personal foul penalties), starting with Christian Barmore, who dominated for the first half of the game. Barmore is really coming on. In the past two games, he has had 12 impactful plays and zero minus plays. ... Khyiris Tonga continues to be a stud in the middle - centers have a hard time with him - Milton Williams flashed a few times (although he was lost on a 17-yard pass when he was called on, improbably, to drop into coverage at LB), and Cory Durden and Joshua Farmer were impactful in this game. ... Edges were just OK. Keion White continued to look lost at times. They need K'Lavon Chaisson back.

Linebackers (2.5 out of 5)

Robert Spillane has now played really well in three straight games after his slow start. ... Tavai (two stuffs) was a real factor with his physicality and tackling after blowing the run edge on his first snap of the season. ... Christian Ellis and Jack Gibbens still continue to struggle, especially in coverage - which I can't believe the Bills didn't exploit more.

Secondary (3.5 out of 5)

For the most part, the coverage was really good as the Patriots had their highest rate of man coverage on the season (37%), although these Bills aren't any sort of measuring stick. They have very little. ... Marcus Jones was outstanding with a huge third-down pass breakup against the much bigger Keon Coleman. (Allen should have thrown it back shoulder). ... Josh Allen was reverted back to Cowboy Josh Allen. On those final two passes where he's running around, I was saying to myself, "If he played more like Maye and just took the checkdown to Cook more (2nd down), he'd be playing better." Whoever thought we'd be here in Maye's 17th start? On third down, Coleman was wide open in the end zone but Allen just took off and didn't see it. ... I asked a coach who has played the Bills about how Allen reverts back to old self at times and he said, 'there's a reason why he's never been to a Super Bowl and just one conference championship game." Hmmm. ... I thought the Bills got jobbed on the Shakir OPI call, which was huge (would have been 3rd and 1, they would have sneaked it) and led to the interception. Christian Gonzalez was also early on the final pass to Shakir - even Gonzalez was looking for the flag to come out, but it was close and don't mind no flag. ... Carlton Davis (bad eyes) and Jaylinn Hawkins (lost in motion) allowed easy touchdowns. 

THREE UP

WR Stefon Diggs: Only played 50% of the snaps (that's ideal at this point) and he basically carried the receiving crew. Just a great clutch performance.

QB Drake Maye: I think if he played a full game like the second half, it might break my grading system.

DT Christian Barmore: Also considered Marcus Jones, Khyiris Tonga, Garrett Bradbury and Cory Durden, but the big fella is on a roll right now.

TWO DOWN

RB Rhamondre Stevenson: Another fumble.

DB Brenden Schooler and OT Vederian Lowe: The one play, one big penalty club.

Hunter Henry, Will Campbell and Austin Hooper were eligible for a third spot, but I couldn't bring myself to do it. They weren't bad or anything.

PS: Can we stop giving the kicker game balls (two in three wins) for just doing his job? Maye has zero.