This could be the national coming-out party for Drake Maye and the Patriots' offense on national television against the Bills on Sunday night.
It could be a national embarrassment for the Patriots' defense.
A matchup of two ascending offenses and two struggling defenses will come down to which of the latter units makes the better adjustments.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
On paper, this matchup heavily favors the Patriots - especially coming off the Panthers game. Against Carolina, Josh McDaniels mostly stayed away from the middle of the defense and took advantage of the young and undisciplined edge players with a series of runs and boot actions that pressed the issue. The Patriots could do a lot of the same things against the Bills, as their run defense is terrible - especially on the edge.
Bills' opponents are averaging 8.13 yards per carry around left end (mostly Joey Bosa's side), 12.71 ypc to right tackle, and 7.64 ypc around right end.
That could set up some boots and deceptive plays/screens, which the Patriots used well in their 24-21 loss at Buffalo last year.
The Bills will get a boost this week with the expected return of MLB Matt Milano and DT Ed Oliver. But that really won't change the fact that the Bills have one of the league's worst run defenses, although the Patriots' offense has been terrible at running the ball.
With Oliver back to pair with Daquan Jones and rookie Deone Walker at DT, the Bills are fairly formidable in the middle of the line and will give the Patriots' interior line some issues. Outside of that, the Patriots should be pretty comfortable.
Bosa is far from his prime and is very undisciplined - a combination McDaniels usually toys with. The other edge players, Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa, are solid and will pop on occasion, but they are not formidable.
Milano will certainly help at linebacker but Terrel Bernard should be a target, and Shaq Thompson is well past his prime. The Bills' defense overall is fairly small, so the it would be nice to see the Patriots play some bully ball if the line can get downhill and out onto the linebackers.
The safeties and corners are not good. FS Taylor Rapp has all sorts of issues in coverage. SS Cole Bishop is an ascending second-year player with good speed, so the Patriots will have to be careful with him. The cornerbacks - Christian Benford, Tre'Davious White and Taron Johnson - are small, don't tackle well and part of the issue with their terrible edge run defense. White holds all the time and was benched last week.
The Bills are weakest against No. 2 receivers, and tight ends. Both should help the Patriots.
You do wonder how Drake Maye will react to this environment, if he'll be too pumped up. It's a different atmosphere than last year — Patriots were 3-11, Bills 11-3 in a 4:25 p.m. start - but Maye came out on fire, going 7 of 9 in the first quarter with a dot touchdown to Kayshon Boutte as the Patriots took a 14-0 lead. The Patriots then disintegrated with basically the Steelers game — Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson both fumbled, Maye threw an end zone INT, and had a lateral to Stevenson recovered by the Bills for a touchdown.
If Maye continues to play with poise and is complemented by a good ground attack, he should have no issues. But if he's jumpy in the national spotlight and is erratic to start the game, it might put the Patriots in a hole they can't afford against Allen and the Bills' offense.
WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL
This might be the best Bills offense I've seen in the Allen era. They have the best rush offense in the league and the No. 3 passing attack, according to DVOA.
It all starts with an excellent offensive line, which has been together for a few years. It looks like they will get a very good RT Spencer Brown back from injury. Not only are they great at blocking up the run (and the scheming from OC Joe Brady), but this is probably the best pass protecting unit in the league (just 22% pressure rate).
The good news for the Patriots is that they have been great against the run, but this is a big step up in competition, and James Cook is one of the league's best backs.
The Bills don't scare you at WR with the likes of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Josh Palmer, but they're all at least solid and Allen has confidence in all of them. He'll throw to the open receiver.
The Bills' tight ends are excellent, from veterans Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Know, to rookie blocking TE Jackson Hawes. He's been so good the Bills don't use a sixth OL at TE anymore. The Bills will put 3 TEs on the field, and that's a matchup issue.
It would be great if the Patriots could play man coverage against the Bills' receivers, but there's two problems with that. For one, it allows Allen to run the ball if he doesn't see anything. And two, the Patriots would have to play man against the tight ends and Cook, and that is not a strength.
Patriots used Brenden Schooler as a spy against Allen last year and that was effective (6 rushes, 30 yards). Could be Marte Mapu this year, but Allen will run him over if given the opportunity. I'd be more worried about the Patriots having to play man coverage against the tight ends and Shakir inside. He is Allen's go-to player on money downs.
Between the offensive line, Cook and Allen's greatness, I'm really not sure how the Patriots stop this Bills offense. Maybe New England found something last week against the Panthers.
BEDARD'S PICK
Season: 2-2 straight up and against the spread.
Line: Bills -8.5, 49.5 o/u
As you can tell, I love the Patriots' offense in this matchup, provided they don't turn the ball over (a big if up there, like last year). I think they will be able to run the ball, and Maye/McDaniels will pick apart this porous secondary. I just don't trust the Patriots' offense to play flawlessly in that environment quite yet. I wish this matchup were later.
I just don't know how the Patriots are going to stop this offense, which is the best version we've ever seen. Hopefully the Bills play with their food a bit, like they did against the Dolphins and Saints. But with this being Sunday Night and a whiteout game for them, I have a hard time seeing that. Hopefully Mike Vrabel comes up with a great defensive plan, but the Patriots have been 0 for 4 in that department so far.
Still, I love Maye to go toe to toe with Allen for a while.
Bills 34, Patriots 27.