It's been a minute since the Patriots played a regular-season game of real import. Perhaps you recall the December 2021 matchup in near-hurricane-like conditions in Buffalo, a 14-10 win where Mac Jones threw the ball just three times. Or you may think that the Thanksgiving tilt in Minnesota a year later (a 33-26 loss, and the controversial Hunter Henry no-catch at the goal line) qualifies. But since then, none of these games have amounted to a damn thing, unless you were concerned about draft position.
That all changes on Sunday night at Highmark Stadium. The 2-2 Pats visit the undefeated Bills with an opportunity to announce their presence with authority to the rest of the NFL.
"We're going on the road. 8:20, Sunday night," Mike Vrabel told the team in the locker room after beating the Panthers. "Everybody's gonna be watching. Everybody's going to be watching. And I'm kind of excited they are."
The Bills are one of the clear-cut favorites to win the Super Bowl. But they have been guilty of playing with their food in recent weeks, jumping out to fast starts against the Dolphins and Saints, but then allowing those teams to get close or move ahead. It's a dangerous game to play, and eventually, someone's going to take full advantage of that. Can the Pats be that team?
Offensively, this Drake Maye-led unit is capable of moving the ball against this Buffalo defense. Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich are still searching for the right formula. The Bills are 20th in EPA per play (Pats are 25th) and 29th in EPA per rush. If the Pats can't run effectively this week, that's a problem.
Defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Matt Milano's statuses are up in the air for this week, and that has certainly not helped their cause. But with the way the Pats' offense is trending, it feels like they're capable of scoring points on damn near anyone, assuming they keep the turnovers to a minimum.
Defensively, what can Vrabel and Zak Kuhr cook up for Josh Allen, James Cook, and one of the best offensive lines in football? The Bills are tops in EPA per play, total EPA, and EPA per rush. They're also third in overall success rate and EPA per pass. In other words, efficient as all get out.
So, if you're looking to measure exactly where the Pats are in these early stages of the Vrabel era, you're about to get. To quote former NFL linebacker Bart Scott: "Can't wait."
THUMBS UP
Drake Maye is on his way (I think). His efficiency has been otherworldly for the majority of these last three games. My hesitations are a) it's only been a short sample size, and b) this schedule has been softer than my midsection after the Holidays. The Raiders are the best, according to EPA, but even then, they are a middle-of-the-road unit (15th). But if Maye had been middling through this stretch, I'd be asking for a couple shots of Pepto.
Josh McDaniels deserves some love. The offense is now 10th in scoring (25.5), and he's quickly discovering what his quarterback does best, playing right into it. On top of that, McDaniels is making it work with two rookies on the left side of the line (until Ben Brown had to step in for Jared Wilson) and a receiving group that still doesn't keep defenses up at night.
Marcus Jones. He called himself "ruthless" as a returner. I won't argue (but next time, don't let the punter get you).
Brenden Schooler is making a case for All-Pro status. He had three tackles on Sunday, split a double team as the gunner to force a returner to the sideline, and combined with Alex Austin for a lock-down double on Jones' 2nd big return.
Christian Barmore did what he's supposed to do. He was lining up against a backup guard to begin with, and then got some reps against the third stringer as well. Barmore went to work on the game's second drive with back-to-back pressures, and later drew a holding call (and should have gotten another). I had him for four pressures in all.
Khyiris Tonga is a real player. He's been uber-productive with his snaps through the first three weeks, and got more playing time on Sunday as the Pats used some bigger fronts (and had Harold Landry line up as an inside linebacker). Tonga had a pressure and a pass deflection on that same series that Barmore turned it up.
Milton Williams is drawing a ton of attention, and he continues to make an impact. I had him drawing double teams 10 times, and while he told us Sunday night he wants to make more plays, he's making plenty. If he doesn't get at least a half-a-sack for his undressing of the guard in the second quarter, he should demand an audience with the league.
Will Campbell had a clean sheet in pass pro. Against the level of player he was playing against (the Panthers have a talent problem and one sack all season), he should. There's a general calmness to his play, a control that seems next level for a kid who has played just four pro games. But then Campbell finishes a block here or there that has that kind of nastiness you want. If I'm going to nitpick, he has fallen off some blocks in the run game. But again, pretty doggone good.
Back shoulder Stefon Diggs. He's not exploding in and out of his breaks, and his straight-line has been...fine. But there was a little extra juice on that 33-yarder from Maye. He gained a half-step, maybe a full, and got the corner to panic. Maye could have put the ball out in front of him, but went with option B, and Diggs reacted perfectly to it. His effort as a blocker has also improved.
THUMBS DOWN
Keion White has an edge-setting problem. I counted at least three "issues" during the course of his day. The Pats also moved him inside (for the first time, I think) to rush the passer, and he did have one exceptional bull rush rep. However, the consistency that's been absent from his game was missing once again.
Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson left some meat on the bone as runners. Stevenson had a couple of questionable cuts that cost him yards, while the rookie slowed down some, but not enough to find yards that were available to him. I did love his TD run, though. Henderson is a strong dude for his size.
Carlton Davis had his hands full with Tet McMillan. McMillan is more of a three-level receiver than I thought, but he gave the veteran corner some issues. He drew two penalties, and quite frankly, should have drawn a third on the go route near the end zone (lighthouse side).
Christian Elliss is struggling—more of the same from weeks prior. Missed tackles, misreads, and maybe a missed assignment. Jack Gibbens continues to eat into his playing time.