Bedard: Situational execution needs to improve for Patriots to get going; Don't take Panthers lightly

In the aftermath of the disappointing loss to the Steelers that dropped the Patriots to 1-2, and in my various appearances in the aftermath, I took some issue with the game management (among other things) from Mike Vrabel and, by extension, John Streicher, his aide-de-camp during this underwhelming start to the season.

The Patriots had three winnable (and loseable) games to start this season, and could only scratch out one win, thanks to Devon Achane's wayward foot. Close games are where I figured Vrabel and Streicher would have an almost immediate impact. And to this point, they haven't exactly lit the world on fire:

2) Game management hasn't been a strong point, and a factor in losing two games by one score.

On Sunday, the Patriots won the toss and took the ball for the first time in forever. They were down 14-0 in just over a quarter.

There have also been some questionable decisions at the end of each first half, and the end of games — which we'll get to in a minute. But teams often target the Middle Eight — the 4 minutes at the end of the first half, start of the second half — as a critical juncture in each game.

The Patriots are failing in those situations.

The Patriots have gone punt/interception, end-of-half/punt, and interception/fumble in the three games. Zero points and three turnovers.

Their opponents: missed field goal/touchdown, touchdown/field goal, and end-of-half/interception. That's 17 points (and a chance at three more) and one turnover.

The middle eight has definitely not gone well, but as I thought more about it and dove back into the game situations ... was game management really an issue, or was something else at play?

Really, the only two game management issues I've had when I went back through the games, were the decision to kick the field goal on 4th and 10 against the Raiders, and the decision to take the ball to open the game against the Steelers. But even the field goal against the Raiders wasn't all that bad, and the factors there were emblematic of where this team is failing - and what needs to happen for them to come through more consistently to win games.

Let's look at some of the situations, and see if we can draw some conclusions:

Raiders game

• Patriots kick a 35-yard field goal on 4th and 2 at the Vegas 17 to take a 10-7 lead.

Really hard to pass up taking your first lead of the season, so I'm not going to complain too much. Plus, there's plenty of time to get the ball back with 1:51 left in the first half, and that's exactly what happens. 

• Patriots give the Raiders a chance before halftime, although they missed the field goal.

Patriots lead the Raiders 10-7 and end up getting the ball back at their own 26 with 1:25 remaining. The goal here is to get more points (the Patriots also get the ball to start the second half), but you absolutely can't allow the Raiders another meaningful possession.

Drake Maye runs on first down, picks up 4, and stays in bounds. Good. The second down play was the problem. Maye checks the ball down to Rhamondre Stevenson, who tries to run over Jeremy Chinn for the first down but ends up going out of bounds 1 yard short and stops the clock. Stevenson can't go out of bounds. He needs to stay in bounds to keep the clock running at best, or Vegas uses its first timeout at worst.

On third and 1, Mike Onwenu whiffs on his block, Stevenson gets taken down. And then Bryce Baringer only hits a 39-yard punt to the Vegas 26.

• Patriots punt on 4th and 10 at the NE 44 with 4:53 left, trailing 20-10.

Still would have gone for it, but in fairness to Vrabel, the Patriots would have been in position to mount a comeback if a) Baringer didn't hit a 21-yard punt, and b) Carlton Davis/an overaggressive defensive call didn't allow for a 36-yard pass on 3rd and 10 that basically ended the game.

Dolphins game

 • Dolphins take control of the game with 10 points in the Middle Eight.

Miami goes from a 15-7 deficit to a 17-15 lead thanks to a touchdown going into halftime, and a field goal out of it.

Dolphins got the ball with 1:51 before halftime. They pick up 22 yards on an easy out to Tyreek Hill that isn't played well by Craig Woodson or Davis. Robert Spillane was hung out to dry by the coaches with a terrible play call with no help in the middle of the field on the touchdown to Achane, and both safeties were way too wide.

The big blow after halftime was Alex Austin allowing a 47-yard pass to Hill on a busted coverage on 3rd and 13.

 • After Morgan Moses false start, Vrabel elects for a 53-yard field goal to lead by six points with 1:53 to play.

I do not have a problem with this. You have to push the lead to six instead of three. That changes the game. Now, it didn't help that Andy Borregales didn't reach the landing zone, but the FG was the right call.

Steelers game

 • Steelers lose the toss, Patriots elect to take the ball.

Did not like this decision, and the fact that the team wasn't ready to go compounded that. The Patriots were dominated 14-0 in the first quarter, and it could have cost them the game.

 • Patriots turn the ball over to end the first half, and start the second half.

Drake Maye made a poor throw on the interception in the end zone, and Stevenson fumbled going into the end zone.

This should have been 14 points, and the Patriots should have led 21-14, while scoring 21 consecutive points. They would have had complete control of this game. But both players failed.

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So what's the through line here?

Let's look at the players/coaches involved:

Stevenson (two)
Onwenu
Baringer (two)
Coaching decision (three)
Davis (twice)
Woodson
Austin
Moses
Maye

So we have five holdovers responsible at least partially for seven critical plays. Two veteran newcomers for three. Coaching decisions for three. And a rookie for one.

When I see the holdovers, I think of a lot of guys who either haven't learned how to win, or maybe have forgotten how to win.

The veteran newcomers, defensive playcallers, and a rookie are all new.

Not sure if this is going to be a great answer, especially to those who want and expect immediate results, but what I see is a bunch of players and coaches who haven't really been to war enough together yet, and they are learning what each other are capable of or aren't capable of. Even the defensive coaches, I think they got a bit over their skis with some of the aggressive playcalls early. Vrabel was too aggressive in taking the ball against the Steelers.

I'm sure he wants to be that team, but they just aren't right now. Don't try to force the issue if you're not exactly sure what you're going to get.

But I also think there's some aspect of Vrabel, who took over a Titans team that had gone to the playoffs, needing to do a bit more work teaching these guys situations — some of whom have never been in those situations before, or it's been a while. Maybe the Titans were a little more turnkey. These Patriots are Extreme Makeover: NFL Edition. Time for everyone to roll up their sleeves a bit more, and quickly.

Because until the Patriots start getting better in the crucial situations, the winning ways aren't going to return like everyone expects.

PANTHERS PREVIEW

• Do not sleep on this Panthers team, which has outscored their opponents 49-0 in the last four quarters they have played. They are well-coached, and are pretty good scheme-wise in all three phases.
• This is the best defense (15th in DVOA) the Patriots have faced so far, especially against the pass. The Raiders (26th), Dolphins (31st) and Steelers (27th) were in the bottom six of the league. The Panthers are 11th.
• The defensive scheme of Ejiro Evero, who has been viewed as a rising star and future head coach, looks simple but they will do a lot with the blitz, and post-snap coverage changes can confuse a young quarterback (ask Michael Penix). There's a lot of experience and talent in the secondary with CBs Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, safeties Tre'von Moehrig and Nick Scott, and second-year slot Chau Smith-Wade is quick and will jump passes. They use Moehrig in a variety of ways and he's a ferocious blitzer and tackler.
• DT Derrick Brown is one of the best players in the game, especially against the run. He dominated All-Pro Chris Lindstrom last week. Brown will mostly be over Mike Onwenu this week. Beef on beef. Fellow DTs Bobby Brown and A'Shawn Robertson are solid veterans and tough to move. With DJ Wonnum out, the Panthers will have to go with two rookies, Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen, on the edge. They've been underhelming.

• MLB Trevin Wallace is a quick little bugger who can drop into space easily. WLB Christian Rozeboom is really slow and terrible in coverage. Look for the Patriots to stress the edges in the run game, and target the middle of the field in the passing game.
• Not sure the Patriots can win the game on offense in this game, but they can certainly lose it. This defense can cause issues and turnovers.
• Panthers' offense (30th in total DVOA, 29th pass, 25th run) is down two starters in WR Xavier Legette and TE JaTavion Sanders, and they basically only have rookie WR Tet McMillian, who is dangerous big body, and RB Chuba Hubbard. TE Tommy Tremble is solid.
• Bryce Young, who is just 5-11 and you want to keep him in the pocket, can make all the throws and elude pressure - if he's comfortable. The first job in this game is to make Young uncomfortable. The Patriots' defensive line should be able to do that with just four rushers, as the Panthers' offensive line is subpar. The interior is especially weak. RG Chandler Zavala is the weak link. Whoever goes up against him, thinking Christian Barmore and Khyiris Tonga, should be able to eat all day back into Young's lap.
• The Panthers' special teams are terrific and basically swung the Falcons' game. Their kickoff coverage, between the dirty ball from Ryan Fitzgerald and coverage players that look like a pack of piranhas on film, is some of the best I've ever seen. Credit to special teams coordinator Tracy Smith.

BEDARD'S PICK

This season: 1-2 straight up and against the spread

Line: Patriots -5.5, 43.5 o/u.

This game is not going to be a walk in the park, especially for the Patriots' offense against a good Panthers defense. This game is going to have to be won by a dominating defense and, considering the injury situation for the Panthers, I like their chances. It's just not going to be easy. But I can't see the Patriots falling to 1-3 and possibly 1-4 heading to Buffalo for Sunday Night Football. 

Patriots 20, Panthers 13.