After a subpar opener against the Raiders, Drake Maye and the Patriots' offense look like a new unit as they outlasted the Dolphins in Miami to get their first win of the season.
Maye played his best game as a pro, and looked in complete command. A lot of people want to say an altered approach from Josh McDaniels was the reason for that but, like I told you previously, that's not what happened. The wide zone and boots that we saw were worked on constantly this summer on the practice field, as McDaniels worked to take advantage of Maye's athletic ability, but also in an attempt not to expose an offensive line that might need some time to get their feet under them with two rookies and a center not known for holding up well in pass protection. The zone blocking scheme was basically invented to overcome a weaker offensive line, mostly due to a lack of size.
Don't believe me about that approach always being part of what the Patriots can do? Listen to Brian Hoyer.
"I think the one thing that people make the assumption like, 'Oh, he's not running his offense.' He's running his offense. Those plays are in the offense," Hoyer told WEEI this week. "I don't know if you were playing, but they used to send (Tom) Brady on some of those boot legs and naked and things. And the story that I was told was one day, he took a shot to the chin, and Bill Belichick said, 'Never again are we running those plays in this offense.' So they are in there.
"When I was playing in the preseason, or when Mac Jones was playing, we had those in the offense, you just have to make sure you call them against the right defense. I think that's the key, and that's why Kyle Shanahan is so good at it, and Josh is figuring out what teams to run them against and whatnot. I don't think you want to run those against a Max Crosby. Now, you go into Miami with these guys who are roaring off the edge, selling out to chase the run. Now you can pull that ball.
"The thing that I loved on the one to (Austin) Hooper was they motion Hunter Henry from out wide so he'd have the angle to pin that defensive end so Drake could pull up and throw it back. So it all has to tie together. And I think with Josh, it's all there for him, it's just a matter of determining what is my quarterback feeling good with, what are the players feeling good with, and what can we expose the opposing defense with? Look, the Steelers are a totally different scheme than the Miami Dolphins, so we will see them expose them in different ways, especially with the injuries that they're dealing with."
What will the Patriots' approach look like against the Steelers? Let's take a look at the opponent, also with video analysis:
When the Patriots have the ball
Can the Patriots run the same offense as last week? Yes, and no. The Seahawks were able to run and pass the ball with some outside zone stuff. You just have to be really careful with TJ Watt, much like the Patriots were with Maxx Crosby in Week 1. Get too cute, and you're at 2nd and 15 too often. I do think they'll do more zone because the interior of the Steelers still features Cam Heyward, who isn't the same player after missing a lot of practice in a contract dispute. But he also tipped a pass for an interception against the Seahawks. The two other DL can be run on and duo'd to death.
Steelers like to blitz - they're third with a 43% blitz rate - and they're fairly good at it. Sam Darnold had to take some shots to make the Steelers pay. Will the Patriots want Maye to do that all that often? Could see a lot of extra blockers.
The good thing is that Steelers' defense, which is missing four starters (DE Derrick Harmon, OLB Alex Highsmith, SS DeShon Elliott and CB Joey Porter), is horrible up the middle at linebacker and safety in pass coverage (like the Patriots). Darnold killed the Steelers in the middle of the field through a blend of scheme and just blown assignments (sound familiar)? Steelers are worse at LB than the Patriots. LBs Payton Wilson (41) and Patrick Queen (6) are only good at blitzing. If you can motion them into pass coverage, they are ripe for the taking.
CB Jalen Ramsey is still dangerous, but he'll give up pass plays if you can block it up.
When the Steelers have the ball
This offense mostly operates out of the shotgun and looks like a college spread offense, probably because Aaron Rodgers prefers it and doesn't want to get hit all that much. Under pressure, he'll escape to space to make a throw but he gets into a defensive position very quickly.
Rodgers prefers to throw quickly to the open guy. Short area coverage will be a premium. When he gets under center, they usually run, and they'll do an occasional boot action.
Pressure is the key with Rodgers. He's completed just 31.3% of his passes under pressure (32% of snaps). He's pretty good against the blitz (only 22% of the time).
I like Jaylen Warren, the running back. He's a small jitterbug type, but he's strong in the lower body. He's caught 6 of 6 passes as well.
DK Metcalf doesn't look like the same player and he has two drops while catching 7 of 13 targets for 103 yards. WR Calvin Austin is next in usage. He's more of a slot. TEs Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith are next in usage. Nobody scares you.
This line gets very little push in the run game, and is leaky at tackle and left guard in pass protection. LT Broderick Jones (7), RT Troy Fautanu (5) and LG Isaac Seumalo (4) have given up the most pressure. RG Mason McCormick and C Zach Frazier are solid.
BEDARD'S PICK
Record: 1-1 vs. spread and straight up
Line: Steelers -1.5, 44.5 over/under
This line went from Patriots -1.5 to Steelers -1.5, and I have no idea why. Both defenses have been terrible so far, but I do think the Steelers' pressure packages are better than the Patriots. They have an edge there and could cause some negative plays, but I like Josh McDaniels to come up with a sound plan to keep Maye safe, and torch the linebackers and safeties.
The Patriots' defense is a complete unknown, especially with Christian Gonzalez downgraded to out. If they simplify things and just play bend but don't break, I like New England. I'm hoping Rodgers being on the other side makes them simpler, because you don't want to blitz him, and you're not going to fool him. I'd take fundamental and sound. I think that's what we're going to get.
Patriots 30, Steelers 23.
