The Celtics roster is apparently set for the time being, so this is probably a good time to take a crack at what the rotations will look like for this upcoming season. There are some debates over who should start and what the bench rotation will look like, so let’s dive in.
DEFINITE STARTERS
Derrick White, Jaylen Brown
We don’t need to get into this any further.
ALMOST CERTAINLY STARTING
Neemias Queta
Considering his size, his EuroBasket performance, and the current state of the frontcourt, I’m having a hard time justifying anyone else starting at center.
POSSIBLE STARTERS
Payton Pritchard, Anfernee Simons, Chris Boucher, Sam Hauser
Two of these guys are starting, two are coming off the bench. At the very least, this is your top seven rotation.
Argument for Pritchard: He’s earned it. He’s the Sixth Man of the Year, there's an opening on the perimeter, and he can handle the job of being the team’s starting point guard. This would shift White to more of an off-guard role, which he has mostly been with the Celtics since he’s gotten here. A perimeter of Pritchard, White, and Brown would have enough shooting to give the Celtics space, and it would allow Simons to come off the bench and stagger with Brown for most of the game to keep a high-level scorer on the floor at all times.
Argument for Simons: He’s a pure scorer who will take a lot of pressure off Brown, meaning fewer double-teams for Brown. He’s an underrated passer so he can handle the ball, leading to some semblance of the dynamic White and Jrue Holiday shared on offense. Bringing Pritchard off the bench would allow him and White to stagger the point guard duties and it would keep Pritchard in a familiar role where he’s thrived.
Argument for Boucher: It would give Boston a double-big look that was successful for them last season. If Simons starts, a double-big lineup with two adept shot blockers would help cover for defensive mistakes. Even if Pritchard starts, there will be a need to for a strong front line. He can space out to the corners and be somewhat dangerous, so he’ll still require some defensive attention, thus keeping the spacing where it needs to be. It would also allow for some more shooting off the bench with Hauser in a reserve role.
Argument for Hauser: Obviously his shooting would create necessary space, which would allow the drivers to get into the paint. He has improved his off-the-dribble game and can attack a closeout effectively. He has good size and is an underrated defender, which would allow for more switching 1-4, which could help mitigate some deficiencies. Pushing Boucher to the bench would stagger Boston’s best shot blockers and give Boston a change of pace if they wanted to switch 1-5 and fly around.
Verdict: I’ve been arguing for Simons and Boucher as starters for so long that I’m going to stick to it, but I think these are all compelling. If you want to advocate for Pritchard and Hauser, then I think there's plenty of validity to that as well.
I think when something like this is the case, we end up with situational starting lineups. Because any of these four guys are worthy of starting, I think all four will start a fair share of games depending on the matchups. We might see Queta and shooting against the Sixers and double-bigs against the Cavs.
BENCH ROTATION CANDIDATES
(Two previously mentioned non-starters), Baylor Scheierman, Luka Garza, Josh Minott, Xavier Tillman, Jordan Walsh
So whichever two guys don’t start on a given night become the sixth and seventh men. Generally, an NBA rotation is no more than 10-deep. So that gives us three more players who we can expect to get some minutes and a couple who will likely be on the DNP-CD side of things.
I think Scheierman is poised for a bit of a leap this season. He has the size, great passing ability, and a jumper that can be really dangerous when it’s working. If he can get the 3 to fall more consistently, then he has a chance to become a solid eighth-man this year.
I think Garza and Minott will get a lot of reps, mostly because the Celtics need to see what they have in those guys. Garza is the only other true center on the roster, so he’s going to be forced into some situations due to the lack of center depth (unless the Celtics decide to go small). Much like Simons, the Celtics will need to see if Garza can show them anything defensively. If he’s able to pick things up and be at least serviceable on that end, then the Celtics can feel comfortable with Garza moving forward. If he can’t, then they will have to move on.
Minott might actually be the most interesting guy on the roster. People don’t know much about him, but he has a chance to be a disruptor off the bench. Boston is missing an energy guy who will fly around and do the dirty work. Minott can be that guy, and at 6-foot-8, that would be an incredible weapon in Joe Mazzulla’s bag.
That doesn’t leave much time for Tillman and Walsh. I’m not out on those guys, but they have a little bit of an uphill battle.
Tillman, first, has to be healthy enough to compete for a spot. If his knee remains an issue, he might not be worth keeping on the roster. If he’s healthy, then he needs to find a consistent jumper to stay on the floor. He has the potential to be a strong defender and part of a switching defense, but if his knee won’t hold up, then he’s too much of a liability.
Walsh need to show not only a more consistent jumper, but sound decision-making. I still hate his ejection from the summer league game, mostly because he forgot he had his first technical foul. Sure, the fire was nice, but how about some situational awareness?
I think Walsh’s biggest problem over his whole tenure has been mental. He has played too fast, he’s tried to do too much, he forgets where he’s supposed to be. If he can’t get his brain where it needs to be, then there won’t be a place for him on this roster … and maybe even in the league.
THE FINISHERS
This will definitely be situational. I’d expect two different lineups for when they are up 10 coming out of the last TV timeout versus down 10.
Again, White and Brown are your obvious closers. There will be a shooting lineup for trying to make up a deficit, which would probably include Hauser, Simons, and Boucher. They might go with Pritchard instead of Simons or Hauser, but that would be even smaller. This might actually be on of Mazzulla’s biggest conundrums this season. Is it at all possible to play Pritchard and Simons on the floor together, and if not, who closes games?
The Celtics' best defensive lineup might be White, Minott, Brown, Boucher, and Queta. That could be an “up 10” lineup that cracks down defensively and looks to Brown and White to score enough to close things out.
Ultimately, the Celtics might actually have a few different options throughout these games … more than I originally thought. They can go 10-deep if they want, and if things click early on, they can use that depth to have a “greater than the sum of their parts” kind of season.