Just about every path to a postseason run for the Patriots included the defense being very effective, especially from a defensive line where the team has invested heavily.
The Patriots are ninth in the league in cap spending at defensive tackle ($34 million), and rank 14th in the league when you factor in the edge players ($55.7 million), according to OverTheCap.com. Just at defensive tackle, Milton Williams is second in the league ($26 million APY) and Christian Barmore is 15th ($21 million). Harold Landry is in the top 25 at $14.5 million APY.
The formula figured to be, basically, let a deep defensive line eat, mostly with four rushers, and cover well starting with two standout man corners in Christian Gonzalez (who is still on the shelf) and Carlton Davis.
It can't be a great sign that by the end of the first drive of the season against the Raiders, Mike Vrabel and defensive coordinator Terrell Williams (who had to step away from the team this week due to a health issue) decided they could no longer just rely on four rushers. This was an absurd playcall that resulted in the first touchdown (notice 97 and 90 at ILB).
And they weren't wrong. The results against the Raiders — who do have a solid-to-good offensive line — were eye-popping and a huge concern. The Patriots, according to NextGenStats, didn't get any of their four sacks without blitzing. The team's pressure percentage was 64.7% with the blitz, and just 22.7% without blitzing. And the best QB pressure percentage individually without the blitz was Harold Landry at 12.5%.
Look at these splits in the game:
Of course, the more you blitz, the more exposed you are in the backend due to fewer coverage players, and if the blitz doesn't get home in time, you could get gashed. Geno Smith gashed the Patriots. He's splits:
Smith had a 137.5 rating and averaged 14.5 yards per attempt against the blitz. His rating was 76.1 with 8.2 YPA with no blitz.
So, ultimately, their choice was wrong. The uberaggressive approach blew up in their face, to some extent. I'm sure a lot of people will take 20 points allowed every week, but sometimes the scoreboard doesn't always tell the tale. After Week 1, the Patriots' defense is 27th in total DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA.
The Patriots ended up blitzing the Raiders on 40% of dropbacks, according to PFF, and 43.6% (NGS). I had the Patriots at 30% because I only count called blitzes (plays where the linebacker goes because the back stays in - green dogs or hug blitzes - don't count for me.
That is totally out of character for a Vrabel defense. In his five years as Titans coach, they blitzed 26.6% of the time.
If the Patriots have to blitz in most games to get enough pressure, they are going to be in big trouble. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel told reporters today that he expects both starters on the right side to be out and will be replaced by backups on Sunday. The Patriots better be able to get home with four in this game, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylin Waddle still dangerous. If they can't, it's going to be a very bad sign for the rest of the season.
Coaches, especially someone like Vrabel who doesn't like to blitz, do not want to have to send extra rushers. That there appears to be questions internally about their ability to get home with four rushers this early has to be a big concern.
Here are the positional ratings against the Raiders:
DEFENSE
Defensive line (2.5 out of 5)
Good against the run, not good against the pass without pressure. ... Harold Landry continued to do what he showed all summer. The guy is just a pro, knows how to set up blockers, and plays bigger than his size. Of course, he had the better matchup over young RT DJ Glaze. On the other side, K'Lavon Chaisson (and others) couldn't do much of anything against LT Kolton Miller. ... Milton Williams showed good power in this game, but he was another that needed the aid of the blitz. ... Christian Barmore was a bit hit and miss, especially in the run game where he got blown out of three gaps and could not get off a block to stop Ashton Jeanty on his touchdown. ... Khyiris Tonga was absolutely terrific against the run. I'm ready for him to play more. ... Joshua Palmer (run) and Keion White (pass) had some tough reps. White looks lost, and he's thinking way too much to the point of brain lock. This is a big worry at this point.
Linebackers (1 out of 5)
Both Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss had a ton of issues in this game, especially in the pass game. The Patriots asked Spillane to play downhill in this game, and that's not really his game. He's more of a read-and-react player. He's someone I expect to be better now that there's film out there. He was probably a little lost in this one with no information on Chip Kelly's scheme. Spillane is a very cerebral player, and his preparation allows him to be more effective than his physical skills. Elliss got benched for Jack Gibbens late when it was clear the Raiders were going to attempt to run out the clock. Elliss is supposed to be good against the pass. He allowed 6 receptions on 6 targets for 69 yards.
Secondary (2 out of 5)
Some good and bad for everyone in this group. I don't really put a ton of blame for the big plays on the likes of Jaylinn Hawkins and Carlton Davis. I put most of the blame on the aggressive blitz calls and then some of those blitzes not getting home. ... The first TD was a ridiculous call on 3rd and 11 where Terrell Williams called a zone exchange where Barmore and Milton Williams dropped to play inside linebacker. I mean, what are we doing here? The secondary players were not put in a position to succeed.
THREE UP
DE Harold Landry: Had almost half the pressures on this defense.
DT Khyiris Tonga: He's my new film binkie. This guy is really good and his technique is great.
DT Milton Williams: For one week, showed that he can still be effective with a higher playing percentage.
THREE DOWN
Mike Vrabel/Terrell Williams: Way, way too aggressive too early with a new group. Nine pass plays of 20 plus yards are embarrassing.
DE K'Lavon Chaisson: Zero pressures is not going to cut it.
LBs Robert Spillane/Christian Elliss: The playcalling put them in a tough position and they were not successful.