Breaking down four big plays from the Patriots' loss to the Raiders through video analysis. Looking at the win probability shifts in the game, these were some of the bigger players in the game:
• 2nd and 7 at NE 48 Qtr: 3, (12:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by I.Pola-Mao [M.Crosby] at LV 29. 1.Pola-Mao to LV 29 for no gain (S.Diggs).
• 3rd and 5 at NE 30 Qtr: 3, (5:12) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 28 for -2 yards (T.Wilson).
• 1st and 10 at LV 27 Qtr: 3, (3:56) (Shotgun) G.Smith pass short middle to B.Bowers pushed ob at NE 35 for 38 yards (C.Woodson).
• 3rd and 7 at NE 48 Qtr: 4, (14:22) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short middle to D.Maye to 50 for 2 yards (G.Pratt; K.Kelly).
This was obviously the biggest play in the game as the Patriots were leading and driving for another score to perhaps take control of the game, and put the game on their terms.
Raiders showed zone/Cover 2 before the snap, and that's what they got: Tampa 2. Patriots had a good Cover 2 beater called, where Pop Douglas and Stefon Diggs are running a two-man game to Drake Maye's right. The dig to Diggs was there, and you'd really love to see Maye see this, and throw with anticipation. Instead, Maye kind of pitter-patters his feet up in the pocket and into pressure.
Now, there was certainly pressure on this play, and Maye ends up getting hit as he throws, but my feeling is a more experienced Maye in this system sees this play coming, and rips it to Diggs before the pressure. I just don't think he's there yet.
Raiders are showing an all-out blitz, but no one goes with Hunter Henry in motion, so the odds are high they are going to drop out and play zone. And that's what happens.
The Patriots have an answer, as Henry and Demario Douglas are running a high-low concept. Maye should be reading 45 Devin White, and his shoulders are angling toward Henry, the "low" receiver. When Maye sees that, he should be ripping the ball to Douglas behind White. I will admit that's a high-level read and throw. You're hoping he gets there at some point here soon.
Pressure was also a factor on this play as Maxx Crosby lines up at the 3-technique and gets inside on Jared Wilson. But the three interior guys end up doing a good enough job sort of washing Crosby out. Of course, that's easy for me to say. I don't have The Condor flashing in front of me.
But, like the interception, if Maye rips the ball in rhythm, the pressure is moot. Instead, he runs into a sack.
To me, this was a great route by Brock Bowers. He perfectly and patiently sets up Jaylinn Hawkins, who has to respect an out, and a go route. Bowers does not tip his hand in any way, and that leads to Hawkins getting put into a position where he has to go over TE Michael Mayer. At that point, Hawkins is toast. That's just Bowers being really good.
The other part of this play is the Patriots called an all-out blitz and they didn't come close to getting home, which you're banking on. I would question the aggressive playcall because of the personnel on the field; it was sort of the B squad with Harold Landry: Keion White, Josh Palmer, Corey Durden and Khyiris Tonga. That's three DTs and an edge player who isn't exactly a playmaker, and Kolten Miller easily wipes out White.
This is too aggressive a defensive call for having that rush personnel on the field.
The Raiders made this play because they spied Maye, and the spy just read him and batted the pass.
However, I'm curious why there wasn't a hot answer on this because the Raiders bring an all-out blitz with the slot corner. Normally, Pop Douglas would just immediately flash. Is that his fault for not seeing it? Is that Maye's fault for not alerting Douglas to the possibility of a slot blitz? I'm not sure. I just don't understand why there wasn't a hot answer here. There normally is.
