I was recently asked a question about whether Derrick White could become an All-Star, and I thought it would be a good exercise to walk through what that would take, step-by-step.
Let’s start with the most obvious statement: White is good enough to make an All-Star team. He’s made the All-Defensive team twice, and over the past two seasons, he’s basically averaged 16 points and five assists on a stacked team.
But “good enough” to make an All-Star team and “will make” an All-Star team are two different things. Plenty of people worthy of making the team simply don’t because there are only so many slots available. Players not only have to be good enough, they have to compile their stats early and be better than other people at the same position as the voting is going on.
Let’s start at the most important thing: he needs the stats to be considered. He’ll certainly get a chance to compile those on this team.
Last season, White took 12.6 shots per game. That will obviously increase. Jayson Tatum took 22.5% of the shots for Boston last year while Jaylen Brown took 19.6%, Kristaps Porziņģis took 15.2%, and then White was next at 14%. With nearly 38% of the shots from last season now available, those percentages will change.
There are, of course, a lot of other factors involved that we can’t predict. Boston took 90 shots per game last season, but we don’t know if that will go up or down this year. Tatum, Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday are gone, replaced by players, aside from Anfernee Simons, who aren’t exactly volume scorers. Will that mean even more shots for White, or will defenses be able to key on him more and get the ball out of his hands?
That's all “wait-and-see” stuff that will hopefully become clear by the time voting starts. For now, we can just try to make some safe assumptions and adjust from there.
Obviously, Brown is going to get the lion’s share of the shots, but White will probably be second. Brown’s 17.7 shots per game last season represented 19.6% of the FGA the Celtics took. So I’m going to work White into that slot, adjusting a little for the added load he’s going to assume with the loss of firepower this season. To work with round numbers, I’m going to assume a 50% increase in his shot attempts, rounded to 19 per game.
Next, his shot profile is going to change a bit. He won’t be as much of a catch-and-shoot guy from 3, so we can’t just straight up extrapolate the same shots with the increased volume. If we did, he’d average nearly 14 3-pointers per game, and even the most deranged Joe Mazzulla fantasy won’t lead to that many shots from deep.
We’re going to have to play with the sliders a bit. He took nine last season, and that's probably the neighborhood where he’ll live. We can bump it up to 10, not just because White has the greenest light to shoot them, but because the lack of talent on the team might make driving tough. There will be some games where White has to launch because that's his best chance at scoring. Consider the extra 3-pointer a self-preservation tax.
Based on last year’s percentages, that shot spit will equal 11.5 points from 3, 10.7 points from 2, and about 2.5 from the free throw line. That's 24.7 points per game. I’m going to shave a little off because I think (a) 10 3-point attempts might be a little high, and (b) a lot of these shots are going to be pull-ups and White shot 38% on those last season. Pull-ups are generally lower percentage shots.
If I could throw a piece of advice White’s way with almost no time left for him to take it, I’d say find a way to perfect those pull-up 10-15 footers. Teams will try to run him off the 3-point line and there isn’t a big on the roster that teams respect. He’s probably going to get all those mid-range shots he wants, and even though the efficiency is low on those, it might be Boston’s best option for long stretches. At the very least, if defenses have to respect that, he can drop a hesi and go to the basket or draw the back line up to open up lobs.
Also, White has never been a big free-throw guy. Even with an increase in 2-pointers, I would expect a fair amount of floaters and shots that shy away from contact. I’m only adding one per game in this calculation.
At the end of all this, I’m comfortable projecting White to average 22-23 points per game this season, which would easily be worthy of All-Star consideration. However, one thing White has to avoid is a December/January dip. Over his three full seasons in Boston, he has gone through some rough shooting in either December or January. Obviously, that's when the All-Star voting happens, so if he’s going to make this team, he’ll have to stay a little more consistent through the early parts of the season.
Regardless, I think White will be good enough to warrant serious consideration. But will there be a spot for him?
Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson are probably locks to get in. LaMelo Ball is ridiculously popular, so he’ll get plenty of the fan vote. If the Hornets are any good at all, he’ll be in the mix. Tyrese Maxey will have a chance to put up some numbers and make a play. Trae Young always compiles enough numbers to warrant consideration. Tyler Herro has been averaging over 20 points per game and made his first All-Star appearance last year for Miami. Cade Cunningham is the star player on an up-and-coming Pistons team and he made his first All-Star game last year while averaging 26 a game.
The line ahead of White is a long one, and the Celtics aren’t expected to be very good. Not only will the competition be tough for White to get in ahead of some of these names, but a tough start to the season might preclude people from including two Celtics. Assuming Jaylen Brown is Boston’s lock All-Star, White’s either going to need the team to be surprisingly good, or he’s going to have to blast past all these projections and force people to consider him.
Look at the Celtics' schedule to start the season: Philadelphia, New York, Detroit, New Orleans, Cleveland, Philly again, and Houston. I’ve blown off the Sixers in the past, but starting the season with Joel Embiid against Boston’s front line might be messy. I’m not predicting anything, but a 1-6 or 0-7 (Pelicans are on a back-to-back) start to the season wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world.
There are spots on the schedule to go on winning streaks to balance that out, but we could be looking at a long sub-.500 start to the season. First impressions go a long way, and an established “Boston isn’t that good” mentality around the league would really turn a lot of people off to giving them multiple All-Stars.
One thing White has going for him is that he’s never made it yet. At 31 years old, White is up against the tail end of his best basketball. If there's a sentimental case to be made for White, it’s that he’s been incredibly good for years now, and taking advantage of this chance with increased opportunity could result in a sort of lifetime achievement award for him. If the choice is between, say, White and Herro and their stats are similar, putting White in over the 25-year-old Herro could be voters’ way of saying “Tyler will get plenty of chances to make it, but this might be Derrick’s last real shot.”
White will almost certainly put up All-Star-worthy numbers next season. I expect him to set career-highs in points, assists, and rebounds, and I have a lot of confidence in his ability to handle the added pressure of being a primary option, both from the team and what opposing defenses will show him. Still, the road to an All-Star berth is tough because of the level of competition and the expected struggles the Celtics will face.
If I had to make a prediction, I’d say White’s name will end up at the top of the list of snubs when the final voting is done. I think he’ll be great, but the numbers game is too tough to overcome. I won’t rule out an appearance as an injury replacement, so I’m not saying he absolutely won’t be an All-Star, but I don’t think he’ll be able to claw past enough people ahead of him to be voted onto the team.