So it begins.
We're three weeks away from the first Patriots training camp practice on July 23rd. Time to dial up my first 53-man roster projection.
A few notes before we post the list and get into more specifics:
• I'm not thrilled with this version and know it is going to change. Why? Because I have an offensive-defensive split of 26 to 23. That probably won't happen. But if you count Brendan Schooler, it's a lot more reasonable.
• We don't have much real information on, especially, the offensive line, because they haven't been in pads. Really just throwing darts at this point. And we also don't have much information on guys who didn't do much this spring, like Vederian Lowe, Ja'Lynn Polk, Tyrese Robinson, Miles Battle and Marcus Epps. We're just guessing on them.
• I have designated three players to be traded, and you could throw in a few more.
• I kept seven receivers. Yup, seven. The Patriots did the same thing last year before dropping Jalen Reagor during the claims process.
Let's do this, and then discuss:
Let's cut this up into some digestible pieces.
The only name I really debated over was Antonio Gibson. For now, I am keeping him because it's so early for the two rookies that we don't know exactly what they are capable of. Really like Gibson as a player and he's the perfect veteran backup to relieve Stevenson and cover at passing back. But Henderson could easily make Gibson expendable, and I do think the Patriots could ultimately get a late-round pick for him from a contender looking for veteran help. I'm just not ready to go there yet. Practice squad would be a better place for a veteran option should injuries become a factor.
Ok, so at receiver, I am projecting Stephon Diggs will get cleared at some point before the season. As soon as he practices, he can't be put on PUP to start the season (Kendrick Bourne was activated Oct. 5).
Diggs, Hollins and Williams are the stone-cold locks. I am, however, not guaranteeing that Diggs is on this roster, although I would it at about 95 percent. My only allowance: the team isn't thrilled with Diggs, for whatever reason, a legit No. 1 becomes available and Diggs goes out in a trade for the new No. 1 WR. Long shot, but I'm not totally ruling it out.
Bourne and Douglas are the near-locks. I think the team would listen to trade offers on Bourne, Douglas, Polk, Boutte and Baker (good luck).
I'm giving Polk another year to prove himself, but that could end quickly and he could be traded.
Chism makes the team, but we still need to see him in pads. If his film is good in the preseason, they might not be able to get him to the practice squad. And he might like someone else's p-squad offer, like from a West Coast team (hometown Seahawks, Rams, Chargers, 49ers etc).
Boutte's the odd-man out right now, but that could change. I think they could get a late-round pick for him.
Looks like the end of the road for Baker.
Like Webb, Jiles and Bankumsee, and they could be on the practice squad. Especially Jiles.
Don't really have much of a feel at tight end. It's Westover vs. Dippre at the backup Y, and Bell vs. Scott at backup Flex. Westover leads right now but I think Dippre will impress with his blocking. I'm not sure they need another Flex on the 53.
As for the fullback, Lampe will get to show out with the pads on and special teams. I just don't think the Patriots need a fullback on the 53 to start the season, considering how few teams use them (only 16 teams have at least one, and only three teams have two right now). Whether or not Josh McDaniels employs a fullback will be about the player and not the need. He needs to bring real value.
At tackle, Campbell and Moses are locks. After that, it's completely up in the air.
It's between Lowe, Wallace, Jacobs and Bryant for the two backup spots. I picked Lowe because he's the most proven and can get them by at LT if needed. Not sure I can say that about anyone else.
Bryant is intriguing because of his size and athletic ability. Played both tackle spots in the spring. Smart kid. Patriots need to start developing tackles, like the Eagles.
Wallace has all the ability in the world to play both tackle spots, but something is missing. I think he's the only player who could bring a mid-round pick in a trade. Just turn the page, like a lot of the members of the 2024 draft class. There might be one player left (Drake Maye) when things are said and done. Yikes.
I don't think anyone is completely safe at G/C outside Wilson, but Onwenu and Bradbury are close. Wilson would have to overtake Bradbury, and someone would have to show they are a cheaper and effective alternative to Onwenu. Then the Patriots could move on from that contract with their ample cap space.
At the end of the day I went with:
LG: Robinson/Strange
C: Bradbury/Wilson
RG: Onwenu/Conley
If Wilson is needed at LG, then Brown gets back in the mix. I don't rule out Sow pushing Robinson/Strange.
Robinson and Butler face long odds.
The defensive side of the ball was much easier.
Whether Jennings is expendable is directly tied to Swinson and how ready he is, especially against the run where Landry and Chaisson are weaker. I like Jones and Ponder too. I just think Jennings would have some value for teams looking for a strong edge defender.
Patriots could keep five on the edge and keep four inside (the norm). Pharms would be the one to go. I'm pretty intrigued by Ritzie.
UPDATE: I forgot Jaquelin Roy for some reason. I think it's between him, Pharms and Ritzie for the final spot. Good competition.
Still don't see Tavai being a fit here. Rice gets the nod over Riley after being in this system, but Riley is one to watch. Tall and long.
Mapu just can't stay on the field. Time to move on, unless he's an iron man this summer.
At corner, I think the top four are safe, and then it's Bolden, Dial, Battle and minor for the last two spots. Could go in any direction.
A corner spot could go to safety, and that would get Epps or Pettus in the mix. To keep both, which I don't rule out, I would think Dugger or Peppers would need to be traded. Right now, I don't see that as likely but I also don't rule it out.
I'll be doing a Q&A on Thursday to address any specifics.