One quote from Austin Ainge’s intro in Utah stood out to me, and it has me watching this opening to free agency very closely.
“I think some extensions and other contracts will be negotiated a little stronger,” he said when asked about the impact of the second apron. “Every dollar matters a little more. We used to care a lot about expiring contracts. We used to care a lot about holding on to players for potential trades, and really now the trades are easier and it's more about the space and the room under the aprons.”
The business of the NBA is changing. And as much fans might be sick of aprons and money talk, understanding the impact of those things around the league, and watching front offices make good and bad decisions, can provide a clearer picture of which teams are going to struggle in this new reality and which won’t.
For example, Naz Reid getting a five-year, $125 million extension feels a little rich in this economy, especially when contrasted with 22-year-old Jabari Smith Jr. getting 5/122.
The Timberwolves also gave Julius Randle $100 million over three years, which means they’ll be a repeater tax team next year, and they’ll head into the summer of 2026 with more than $193 million committed to just nine players.
They are going to get expensive in a hurry.
The same applies to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they're taking active steps to mitigate that by locking their guys up to descending contracts. They're taking advantage of the team option year on the rookie deals for Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams by front-loading and extension for Jaylin Williams. Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe are also on descending deals.
The soft launch of the second apron era is over. It has now fully taken hold, and there is no room for teams to continue easing into this new financial reality. But of course, there are old school people who are stuck in old school ways, and they're going to be the teams who have to go through hasty fire sales sooner than expected.
A team like the Celtics, which has known their financial fate from day one, can scan the league for these wanton spenders and start figuring out their trade targets in advance. And trades are probably going to be how teams acquire the biggest names moving forward.
The one element missing from this summer is the true superstar free agent. Even if one were available, there aren’t really any teams outside of Brooklyn with the kind of cap space necessary to sign a top-tier player. Luka Doncic has a player option that he can decline next summer if he doesn’t agree to an extension now, but the expectation is that he will re-up with the Lakers. If he does, he’ll be one of many free agents deciding to re-sign.
The biggest reason why players are going back is the removal of acquiring players via sign-and-trade as a viable option. A lack of cap space never mattered because a team that wanted Doncic could just line up contracts and assets, back-channel mutual interest, and force a sign-and-trade. Now, acquiring a player like that hard-caps teams at the first apron.
It’s really hard to make all those moves, get a number one option, and then build a winner around him.
That's why players and agents have to be very mindful of what they're doing as well. LeBron James just opted into a $52 million player option and put out a cryptic statement about his future. It feels like a page out of the LeBron playbook to put pressure on his team to do something or else trade him. But who is going to trade for him at this point?
As much as it’s LeBron James and he’s amazingly productive at 40 years old, he’s still a 40-year-old who is more prone to breaking down and less interested in playing as much defense as he used to. Matching his number at this point is too damaging to a team if it doesn’t work out. All-in moves like that in this system are literally championship-or-bust.
The Celtics played the system about as well as they could, and we can see teams trying to lock up their players in an effort to make their stabs at championship runs. The blueprint is to find the right fits at the right prices, lock them up long term, and hope they can win a championship in their limited time together.
Teams can’t overpay anymore, nor can they miss badly on the wrong fit. Players have to be willing to see things through, because forcing trades doesn’t work the same way as it used to.
NBA teams are operating like ospreys. They are circling trying to spot an opportunity, diving in, and hoping to come away with a big reward. They only have limited opportunities to catch their championship before they have to start circling again.
Building a team is tougher than ever now, and that's by design. Teams are either going to understand that now, or they're going to quickly become food for their competition.