The Oklahoma City Thunder are a win away from winning their first championship. And if the Celtics want to have a chance next year, everyone should be rooting for the Thunder to finish the job on Thursday.
The Celtics and the rest of the NBA want things as wide open as possible next season. Boston in particular is hoping to squeeze another year or two of championship contention out of this roster before it’s swallowed by the black hole of the second apron. The last thing the league wants is a 68-win team blowing this lead and coming into next season with unfinished business. We don’t want this to be their version of the San Antonio Spurs losing to Miami in 2013 and then returning the next year to lay waste to the league.
But this is more than just hoping that the young Thunder don’t know how to handle themselves as champions. Sure, it would be nice if they just simply fell into the same second-round curse as the all these other recent champs, but I think the Thunder could be complicit in their own demise if they win it all this season.
There are a few different elements to consider here. The CBA is indiscriminate, so the Thunder will be prone to financially-motivated decisions just like the Celtics are. They have an owner who has historically only taken quick dips into the tax pool, a GM who has mastered the art of getting the most out of trades, and a trove of picks that could probably restart two or three different franchises.
That takes me down a different road than most.
The first thing I look at nowadays is the cap sheet. I see the Thunder with one more year under the tax next season before salaries start to explode. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams will be in the final years of their rookie deals and some other key reserves will be on expiring contracts. The Thunder will have one more season to truly run it back before the money really starts getting outrageous.
From an outside perspective, I’d rather have next season be a hangover year for the Thunder than one motivated by an embarrassing loss. I want to see a summer-long party followed by some losses that used to be Thunder wins and maybe a few uncharacteristic moments of selfishness from the guys who are looking to score massive deals. I want to see some “I got my ring, now I’m going for my money” kind of stuff from a Thunder team too young to avoid that kind of temptation.
Having the most dominant team in the league knock itself down a notch or two is the easiest way for the rest of the league to seize its moment. Boston would have a lot of work to do to get out of the East, and we’ll have to see how things shake out over the summer, but there's a credible path out for them if they stay healthy and if they can get Jayson Tatum back for a playoff run.
The Celtics will still be really good next season, they’ll just be forced to rejoin the pack a little bit. But they should still have enough to take advantage of an open year where the Thunder trip and fall out of the playoffs.
After that, the financial decision-making will come for Sam Presti like it has for Brad Stevens. Holmgren and Williams on max deals gets them close to or past the second apron, depending on what other moves the Thunder make. Clay Bennett has gone into the tax bill before, but never for very long, and not under these circumstances. Considering who he has running his ship and how many draft picks they have, I can see the Thunder starting to move some of their bigger names in order to chase younger replacement talent in the draft.
Presti could be tasked with recreating a new version of the Thunder while trying to hold onto some, but not all of what he’s already built. The two-timeline approach could keep OKC in the mix, relying on the talents of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to elevate whatever players remain. But it would also force them to give up on some talent in the name of money in order to keep floating from draft to draft to hit on the next big young star to join the group.
The Thunder are a small market team that can’t play by the same rules as the bigger market competition. They are expertly run, but they still can’t make the money other teams do, which puts pressure on their bottom line. They might step into the tax for a couple of years, but I would never expect them to become a repeater team that spends time over the second apron. That's not sustainable for them.
If they finish off the Pacers and win a title, Oklahoma City fans will be satisfied with finally breaking through for their first title. They’ve filled the arena no matter what because the Thunder are the only game in town, and they understand that the rules are different for them. I think making a tough financial decision on a good player is an easier sell there than it would be in New York, Los Angeles, or Boston.
The second apron will come for everyone, and OKC is closer to it than people realize. A championship hangover leading into impending financial complications is the best way, from a competition perspective, to keep this championship window open a little longer for Boston.