Kristaps Porzingis might have played his last game for the Celtics. That can be said of a lot of guys, maybe most guys, on this roster. Not that they’ll all go, but we know that everyone except for maybe Jayson Tatum is available for some price starting this summer.
A few guys, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White in particular, won’t be moved unless Brad Stevens is floored by an offer. A few guys, Jrue Holiday first and foremost, could be moved at below their true value because the league’s financial rules demand a pare-down.
Where Porzingis stands in all of this is interesting. On one hand, he’s a unique big man whose ability to punish mismatches and hit deep 3-pointers makes him a true unicorn on the offensive end while his rim protection can be part of an elite five-man defensive unit. On the other, he’s played in 99 of 164 regular-season games and 18 of 30 playoff games over two seasons. He hasn’t just suffered injury and illness, he had one of the rarest ankle injuries in NBA history and an illness that first sidelined him in March, never truly went away, and rebounded to knock him off his feet in May.
It’s not just that Porzingis is prone to missing time, the things that force him out have been bizarre and unprecedented.
“Doctors are trying to help as much as possible,” Porzingis said after the loss to New York. “It was just extremely weird, and many symptoms that were kind of super weird. So I think nobody has a clear answer. I'll see how I go from here. Maybe I do some extra testing and some extra stuff and see if we find something. If not, maybe just a reset. Reset for my whole system and that will give my energy levels hopefully back up."
It’s easy to talk yourself into what Porzingis can give you on the floor. His best basketball is All-Star-level stuff. He can be a game-changer on the floor while being a great locker room guy. Players love him. Fans adore him. He eats up every moment of love he gets, pumping his fist and flashing a million dollar smile.
There's value to having Porzingis on the team. The question is, does that value make more sense to the Celtics or to someone else?
The motivation to trade him is obvious. There is a certain expectation of someone making nearly $31 million, and if he can’t live up to it, whether it’s his fault or not, then he becomes one of the players you can live without when forced to make a financial decision.
At the same time, his contract is expiring and all the reasons we can lay out to keep him are the reasons why another team might want him. The knowledge of Boston’s salary-cutting motivations, combined with his injury/illness history will make teams think they can snag a potential difference-maker at a low-risk/high-reward price.
The Celtics could play wait-and-see with Porzingis, getting themselves far enough under the second apron to cut their tax bill to a level the new ownership group can tolerate. They could see if things stabilize or if the time he misses is tolerable. If they can get through the season, hopefully with him available for the playoffs, they could choose to let him walk next year and watch $31 million come off the books, or bring him back on a more appropriate deal for someone who gives what he gives.
As much as there's value to moving him this summer to experience some financial relief, there is value to keeping him until next summer to potentially get even more. There is a consideration to weigh with Porzingis that doesn’t exist with Holiday.
A Holiday trade has always been discussed first because he’s older and he’s under contract for longer. It’s the most logical first step for the Celtics no matter which road they take. Porzingis has been lumped into the discussion because of his salary and lack of availability, but moving him isn’t a no-brainer.
How much they get in return for him matters, so any trade discussions regarding Porzingis have to be a bit more in-depth. Boston can’t take back longer-term bad contracts for him just get him out of Boston. That doesn’t make much sense. If all Stevens is getting for Porzingis is bloated contracts, then keeping him and allowing him to become a free agent is probably more beneficial. If Porzingis is needed to make a bigger deal work for salary-matching purposes and Boston is rewarded with a useful player or two, then he can go.
Stevens’ decision with Porzingis is a bit more nuanced than others. Even with the risks involved, there's is as much reason to keep him as there is to let him go. What the Celtics do goes much deeper than saving a few bucks.