Now that we know the Patriots' schedule, what the hell, let's toss in our two cents with a predicted record, which will be revised at least one more time on the eve of the season opener against the Raiders. And I'm going to throw in an added twist: a look at Will Campbell's likely matchups (using OurLads and ProFootballFocus as a source), which could be a key factor each week, at least as he gets acclimated to the NFL.
One thing I forgot to include when talking about Campbell and season prep ... the players he will be going against in practice. He'll get some good work against:
Keion White (34 inches)
K'Lavon Chaisson (32¼)
Bradyn Swinson, rookie (33 3/8)
Truman Jones (33½)
Elijah Ponder, rookie (32 7/8)
Back to the rest of the schedule/predictions (6-2 to this point) after Part I.
Week 9 vs. Falcons, 1 p.m.
Right edges: Rookie James Pearce Jr. (32 ¾), Leonard Floyd (33 1/8)
Big rookie matchup, potentially, with Jalon Walker on the other side, and Pearce. But this matchup, length-wise, is in Campbell's wheelhouse. I think this is a tough game for the Patriots. Vrabel is going to have to work his magic to get the guys up for this one, and I think the Falcons are a frisky team - depending on Michael Penix's health.
Result: Patriots lose (6-3).
There was always a dumb loss on the schedule, even when Belichick was here. I'm going to stick with that until proven otherwise. Falcons have a lot going for them, are in the second year under Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson, but are young on defense. You could easily say the Falcons are way more talented than the Patriots. A loss would not surprise me. Drake Maye might need to win this one - and this may be the start of his "prove-it" stretch.
Week 10 at Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Right edges: Yaya Diaby (33 7/8), Chris Braswell (33 ¼)
Tough place to play, and Diaby is an ascending edge player (9th in total pressures last season). Plus, we're not sure what kind of effect on a game plan Haason Reddick is going to have on the other side - and the Bucs' defense is a lot to deal with, especially down there.
Result: Patriots lose (6-4).
This could be a shootout and another test of how much Maye can take on. This might be back-to-back weeks where the Pats' fortunes rest on whether Maye can outduel an NFC South QB (Baker Mayfield this time). I'm going with the vet at home. Two straight losses for New England.
Week 11 vs. Jets, 8:15 p.m. (Thursday)
Right edges: Jermaine Johnson (34), Michael Clemons (34 7/8).
This is probably the toughest length matchup for Campbell to date, with both Johnson and Clemons. Plus, the Jets have ascending Will McDonald on the other side, Quinnen Williams in the middle, who must be taken care of. Plus, new coach Aaron Glenn is not afraid to send blitzes all over the place. This is not an easy matchup for Campbell, Maye and the offense.
Result: Patriots win (7-4).
The Jets have the makings of a really good offensive line and some excellent playmakers, but I have no faith in Justin Fields, no matter what he did to Belichick's defense in the Zappe game years ago.
Week 12 at Bengals, 1 p.m.
Right edges: Trey Hendrickson (32 ¼), Myles Murphy (33 ¾), Rookie Shemar Stewart (34 1/8)
Will Hendrickson still be on the Bengals? That's a huge question because we all know how good he is. Stewart is a physical beast, but he isn't refined at this stage, and Campbell handled him in college.
Result: Patriots lose (7-5).
This isn't the Week 1 or 2 Bengals, this is normally when Cincy goes on a run and is at its best. Huge test for Vrabel's defense.
Week 13 vs. Giants, 8:15 p.m. (Monday)
Right edges: Rookie Abdul Carter (34), Kayvon Thibodeaux (33 1/8)
Campbell and the Patriots may have gotten a taste of this in the preseason finale, but it's unlikely. I'd be more worried about taking care of Dexter Lawrence and rookie Darius Alexander on the inside, and Brian Burns on the other side. Campbell might not get much help against Carter in this huge battle between top draft picks.
Result: Patriots win (8-5).
I'll believe in Rusell Wilson/Jameis Winston/Jaxson Dart when I see it.
Week 15 vs. Bills, 1 p.m.
Right edges: Joey Bosa (33 3/8), AJ Epenesa (34 ½), Rookie Landon Jackson (33 ¼)
The Patriots finally get a bye week to rest up, figure out the best way to play the rest of the way. As an added bonus, the Bills host the Bengals at 4:25 p.m. while the Patriots are watching at home. And Bills fans are already complaining about it.
Result: Patriots win (9-5).
If Mac Jones could come back and beat the Bills at home in 2023 (his last and best moment with the Pats), then Maye can do it with Vrabel and McDaniels with a bye week.
Week 16 at Ravens, 1 p.m.
Right edges: Odafe Oweh (34 ½), Rookie Mike Green (32 ¼)
Ravens' defense made strides at the end of last season, and they got a lot younger through the draft. Of course, this is going to be about the Ravens' offense, stopping Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and how healthy Jackson is.
Result: Patriots lose (9-6)
At the very least, this will be a very good indicator of how far the Patriots have come under Vrabel, and whether they should be taken seriously in the playoffs.
Week 17 at Jets, 1 p.m.
Second meeting in seven weeks, this time at MetLife in likely nasty weather. This will be about whether or not the Jets have something to play for, and if Aaron Glenn still has their attention.
Patriots result: Patriots win (10-6).
If the Jets had a better QB than Justin Fields, I would not pick the Patriots to sweep them. By this time (and maybe the first matchup), he will have been skewered by the Gotham media, and Tyrod Taylor could be starting.
Week 18 vs. Dolphins, TBD
Is Tua healthy or do we see Zach Wilson once again? Is Mike McDaniel still employed? Are the Dolphins in it, or are they spending the week making travel plans?
Patriots result: Patriots win (11-6).
This has all the makings of a game where 35 Dolphins players are standing by the heater most of the game.