After not being favored in a single game last season, the Patriots are - as of the writing of this column - favored in 11 for the upcoming season. I'll admit that when I saw someone from DraftKings post that on social media, I spit out my coffee, and I don't drink much java in general, and definitely not in the offseason.
How could that be?
Well, it starts with a schedule that, on paper, is the third-easiest in football. The opposition's winning percentage is .429. Only the Saints (on the Pats' schedule) and 49ers can say their slates are softer.
The Saints, Falcons, Bears, and Panthers were in this position a year ago, looking at the league's easiest schedules at this point on the calendar. That didn't work out so well for any of them. New Orleans, Carolina, and Chicago won five games. Atlanta eight. If the Pats ended up in the former category, I'd be surprised. The coaching staff is better. The roster, though still flawed, is better. Eight wins would be a success, especially when you consider where this team has been, which is to say, mired in the muck at the end of the Belichick era and whatever the hell that was last season.
But because there's desperation for the Pats to become relevant again, I've seen predictions of 10, 11, 12, and, gulp, even 13 wins. As I always say, you do you, but talk about wearing blinders. At last check, the Pats have a short-armed rookie at left tackle, a hole at left guard, a center who was one of the worst in football a year ago, a right guard who got paid and then had his worst season as a pro, and a right tackle's who's 34 years old and has shown signs of his body breaking down. Their presumed number one receiver is on the wrong side of 30 and coming off an ACL repair in late October. Should I continue? I didn't create the rainy day, but I am telling you to have an umbrella handy. This team has won eight games over the last two seasons combined. It's okay to dream big and be excited, but be reasonable. Or don't.
Some additional Pats' schedule nuggets:
- Play 3 straight road games from Weeks 5-7 (1 of 3 teams to do so in 2025: BAL, TEN)
- Play 7 games vs. teams to miss 2024 playoffs in the 8-game stretch from Weeks 6-13.
- Have a Week 14 bye week (tied for the latest bye week of the season)
THEY'LL NEVER LEARN
Nobody creates more drama than the Bengals' ownership.
From Rickey Hunley to Carson Palmer to, more recently, Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, Mike Brown is unwilling to do things the easy way, either by signing players in advance of potential holdouts or by turning disgruntled players into other assets. This business approach has been going on for decades in Cincinnati, so why should this spring be any different?
As we've chronicled for months, defensive end Trey Hendrickson wants a new deal. As teammates took part in OTAs this week, the 30-year-old dressed in his best golfing attire. It wasn't to have a face-to-face with his bosses, but rather to air out his complaints to the media. For someone who doesn't like to talk, Hendrickson felt he had no choice but to go on the offensive several times this off-season.
This latest front-facing foray resulted from a text message from coach Zac Taylor telling Hendrickson that if he failed to show up for mandatory mini-camp, he'd be fined.
“A little bit transpired between me and Zac,” Hendrickson said. “We’ve tried to keep it as least amount as personal as possible, but at some point in this process, it’s become personal. Being sent 30 days before mandatory camp, or how many days it is, that if I don’t show up, I will be fined, alludes to the fact that something won’t get done in that time frame."
And that has been Hendrickson's biggest beef. He knew he was third in the off-season pecking order (behind Chase and Higgins) and was granted permission to seek a trade. Nothing ever came of that, and Hendrickson is entering the last year of his deal dramatically underpaid, slated to make $21 million. During this stretch, his peers, Myles Garrett, Danielle Hunter, and Maxx Crosby, got massive raises.
“With the lack of communication post-draft made it imminently clear to my party — meaning my wife, my son and my agent, a small group of people — that I had (to) inform that this might not work out. I don’t think it was necessary. I think we should have all hoped for the best until proven otherwise.”
Hendrickson has informed the Bengals he will not play on his current deal, but wisely, he didn't close the door completely on remaining in Cincy.
“I think every relationship is repairable, right?” he said. “Like, I think Myles Garrett proved that he’s a great man, and he’s done great things for his family, and obviously providing on and off the football field. He’s tremendous. But I think that relationship will repair with time. And same with this. This is just the uncomfortable business side that we’ve unfortunately had to deal with for the last couple years, and, quite frankly, I think we’re all spent.”
ONE CARR DOOR CLOSES, ANOTHER OPENS?
What an odd ending to an odd career for Derek Carr.
The Saints quarterback retired at 34 after a shoulder injury - revealed a month ago - put much, if not all, of the 2025-26 season.
"In late March, while ramping up his preparation for the 2025 season, Derek experienced pain in his right shoulder," wrote the Saints in a press release. " It was his first time throwing a football at significant volume since recovering from both a concussion and left hand injury sustained during play on December 8, 2024. Derek immediately contacted the Saints Medical Team."
The doctors and training staff estimated it would take at least 6 to 9 months before Carr could throw a ball, but instead of taking that route, the veteran signal-caller said enough is enough. With career earnings of nearly $200 million - including a $10 million signing bonus he gets to keep - he should be okay with whatever his post-playing career plans are.
Meanwhile, the Saints were preparing for life without Carr anyway, drafting Louisville's Tyler Shough in the second round. Shough will be the rare 26-year-old rookie, a full year older than one of the players he'll be competing with for the starting job, Spencer Rattler. He's so old that as a freshman, he backed up NFL vet Justin Herbert at Oregon before transferring to Texas Tech and then Louisville. Because of injuries - he had two season-enders - Shough has only one full season as a starter. He later impressed at the Senior Bowl (I wrote that he was the best QB there) with his live arm and good athleticism. What's ironic is a comp often given for him was...wait for it...Derek Carr.
"That's all you can ask for is an opportunity, at any position," Shough said at the team's rookie mini-camp. "And I'm going to treat it the same way, as if whoever is on the roster, I've got to continue to grow and get better and do my best to elevate the QB room and the team. For me, I was going to come in regardless of him (Carr) being here or not and try and continue to grow.
"I think he's been such a high-level player for so long, I think it would be a great opportunity to learn from him. It's also a great opportunity to grow myself and be on this team with a lot of great coaches and guys on the team that we have already. I'm just excited for what's forward and the rest of our offseason."
FITS THE MOLD
After letting Najee Harris leave via free agency (he signed with the Chargers), the Steelers took running back Kaleb Johnson in round three of the NFL Draft. The former University of Iowa star fits the perfect Pittsburgh mold - a bigger back with the requisite physicality to endear him to the Steel City - but he also has big dreams.
“Najee had 1,000 yards all four years,” said Johnson. “I want to be next up. I want to come in, (and) I want to get more. … Win Super Bowls. Rookie of the Year. All-Pro. I want to do all of that. I feel like they can support me here, and I can do it.”
While the 6'1', 225-pounder will bring the thunder, there's also a surprising amount of lightning in Johnson's game. He had 32 runs of 20 or more yards during his final year with the Hawkeyes, and that appealed to offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, especially because most came in the wide-zone scheme that the former Falcons head coach prefers.
“We want explosives,” said Smith after the Johnson selection. “You’re not just plodding, not just 2, 3, 4 yards (with) multiple third-and-2s and third-and-3. You’d like to get those chunk plays.”
Harris didn't bring that to the Steelers offense. He was a plodder who averaged 3.9 yards per carry. I won't put that all on him; the Steelers have had a quarterback problem since Ben Roethlisberger's arm gave out on him, but more was expected of the 2021 first-round pick. Johnson, meanwhile, has questions about his long speed after clocking a 4.57 in the 40, but his tape shows him consistently running away from defenders in the Big 10. But as part of the backfield-by-committee with Jaylen Warren (he's in the last year of his contract), Johnson will get some time to get up to speed before possibly assuming an every-down role.
"I can't wait to work," he said. "I am excited right now."
FIRST TIME FOR EVERYTHING
Several years ago, Cleveland owner Jimmy Haslem drew the ire of 31 other franchises by guaranteeing the entirety of quarterback Deshaun Watson's contract. The effects of that decision are still being muttered about from one coast to the other by fellow NFL billionaires.
I doubt what Nick Caserio is doing in Houston will get the same attention, but the Texans GM did agree to a league first. He signed second-round pick Jayden Higgins to a fully guaranteed deal.
The wide receiver from Iowa State will get $11.7 million over his four years. Generally, second-rounders get almost all of their cash, but there tends to be some wiggle room in that final season. Not so with Higgins, who had 87 catches for the Cyclones in 2024-25 and is expected to play opposite one of the league's best in Nico Collins. The Texans also did something uncommon in round three, taking Higgins' teammate, fellow WR Jaylin Noel. Noel should assume snaps in the slot because of the void caused by Stefon Diggs' departure and Tank Dell's knee injury.
SOME NOTABLE SCHEDULE STATS
- The Eagles and Lions both have 11 games vs. 2024 playoff teams on their 2025 schedule. That is tied for the most in a season in NFL history, excluding years following a strike-shortened season.
- Since 1990 (35 straight seasons), at least 4 teams have qualified for the playoffs in every season that were not in the postseason the year before. The 2020 playoffs were the first under the 14-team format.
- In 2024, all 8 division winners made the playoffs the season before. That's the first time every division winner made playoffs in the previous season since 1976.
- At least 1 team has won its division the season after missing the playoffs 53 of 55 seasons since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.
-At least one team has gone "worst-to-first," winning its division the season after finishing in or tied for last place in 20 of the previous 23 years. No teams did so in 2024 (the first time since 2019).
- In 2025, there will be at least 11 teams with a new starter at quarterback from Week 1, 2024.