I believe Will Campbell will be the Patriots' pick at #4 tonight and will have his name written in Sharpie as the left tackle. Nothing I've learned in the months and months I've studied this draft, and this player, in particular, has changed my mind. I wouldn't do it.
Just this week, I spoke with not one, not two, but three teams drafting in the second half of the first round. None view Campbell as a long-term fit at tackle, despite that being the position he played at LSU. Oh sure, he could get you by was the general gist, but all three told me they'd draft him to play guard.
Dovetail that with the Schefter report that most teams would say the top tackle in this draft (and there's no consensus) would have been the 5th or 6th off the board last year, and I hope you can understand where I'm coming from on this front. I'd consider it later in round one, assuming I am picking up another second-day pick that gives me even more flexibility. As we've written, you can't choose what draft you are in, but it feels like we've hit the acceptance stage of this process. 'Well, the Pats need a left tackle, and he played left tackle in college, so sure, it's gonna be awesome..." Or something like that. And yes, Campbell is everything you want in a player - a leader, tough as a $2 steak, and intelligent.
A reminder from one of my reports earlier this off-season:
Campbell does use what length he has, say those who have studied his tape. His foot speed is excellent, although some scouts noted that he's not as flexible as you'd like him to be (his kick-step/recovery needs work). Campbell allowed 18 pressures this season, and one exec told me the common thread for most of those was - wait for it - "His length. Gets beat inside when he opens the gate because he can't reach the defender, and gets beat outside because he can't get his hands on a speedier edge to keep them off his outside shoulder." It should be noted that the same person wanted to hammer home that Campbell is "a stud" but "just not at tackle."
Which is why I'd say that if Campbell ends up being a guard, he'll need to be a Zack Martin/Quenton Nelson type for me to deem the pick a success.
TRADE WINDS BLOWING?
I've heard a lot of chatter about how no one wants to make moves in round one. I've been calling bullcrap for a while now. Teams fall in love with players, and while certain position groups (DL, RB) are deeper than others when you get googly-eyed for someone, you take action. There's been plenty of that in the last couple of days, including the Texans, who reportedly don't want to be left at the altar without a top-level offensive lineman, the Broncos and Dolphins.
Add that to the report that the Browns (at #2) and Giants (#3) are getting calls for their picks, and take it to the bank: There will be multiple trades on Thursday.
On that front, the Pats have received some calls, but from what I can gather, nothing that would prompt them to move. A league source informed me that at least one of those teams wanted to know what it would take to move up to #4, but only if a specific player remained on the board.
Also, in talking to several of the teams in the first half of the first round, there did remain some noise that the Pats could go Armand Membou, the tackle out of Missouri. They did a lot of late work on him (it could be as simple as a re-check). I view that more as a late ploy to generate some trade calls from the Membou hive (Vegas, NO, possibly SF).
MY GUY, MYKEL
Full disclosure: When I first studied Mykel Williams, I thought he was a souped-up Anfernee Jennings. Not that there is anything wrong with that. You know that you're getting a ready-made NFL run defender. But the more I watched, the more people I talked to, the more I think he can be a consistent 10-sack-a-season player. Combine that with his penchant for setting an edge like a boss, and I wondered aloud why he was being mocked in the late teens and 20s. Well, this last week, everyone's caught up to how the league thinks, and the former Georgia Bulldog seems top-10 bound.
As for the rest of 'my guys,' here's the list (and it's delicious):
Jalon Walker, Edge/LB. Georgia, top 10 pick: He would be my pick at #4. Vrabel will know how to use him, and this kid could be a weapon.
Josh Conerly, T, Oregon, 1st round: Bedard thinks he's a little light and maybe a guard. The big boy must have taken a softball off the head. Conerly's best football is ahead of him.
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State, late 1st/early 2nd: Is pro-ready and capable of playing inside and out. Has been overshadowed at OSU because of the players around him, but that means you missed out on how good he is.
Jaylin Noel, WR, Iowa State, early round 2 pick: I've written about him a ton. Not much more needs to be said. He's my second favorite receiver in the draft (behind Travis Hunter)
Nic Scourton, Edge, Texas A&M, day two: His Purdue tape is awesome. I'm betting on that being who he is.
Andrew Mukuba, S, Texas, anywhere from 2nd through 4th round: Another player I've opined on. He is a true free safety who thinks he's 25-30 lbs bigger than he is. He's an animal.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, OSU, late 1st, early 2nd round - Would be a perfect fit in the McDaniels offense.
R.J. Harvey, RB, C. Florida, 3rd round: Productive, Tough. UCF's entire offense, and he carried the load.
D.J. Giddens, RB, Kansas State, 3rd/4th round: Explosive.
Demetrius Knight, LB, S. Carolina, 3rd/4th round: He's a badass who will take your head off. Probably too big for the Vrabel scheme.
Omarr Norman-Lott, DT, Tennessee, 3rd/4th round: Interior pass-rushing beast. Not a big fella, but he sure is in the backfield a lot.
Thomas Fidone, TE, Nebraska, 4th through 6th: There's something there. Would need some patience.
Fadil Diggs, Edge, Syracuse, Day 3: Has all the measurables, was productive at both A&M and Syracuse, and could be one of those day three finds who becomes a sub-rusher and a good one at that.
