(1) BOSTON CELTICS vs. (8) ORLANDO MAGIC
FIRST ROUND
Favorites: Boston -8000
SCHEDULE
Sun. 4/20, 3:30 p.m. - ABC
Wed. 4/23, 7 p.m. - TNT
Fri. 4/25, 7 p.m. - ESPN
Sun. 4/27 7 p.m. - TNT
Tue. 4/29 TBD - TBD
Thu. 5/1 TBD - TBD
Sat. 5/3 TBD - TBD
Bold-Home
Italics-Road
SEASON SERIES
The Celtics bolted out of the gates, playing aggressively on both ends behind Jaylen Brown (15 pts) to go up 11 after 12 minutes. Things slowed down with Brown out to start the second but they picked up on his return and the lead grew to 15 at the half. The Magic opened the third quarter on a 26-11 run to tie things back up and then started the fourth on a 7-0 run to take the lead. The lead grew to 10 and things got chippy, but Orlando got huge performances from two-way player Trevelin Queen (17 points) and rookie Tristan da Silva (18 points and the dagger 3-pointer) to upset the Celtics.
The Celtics carved out a seven-point lead with a little bit of everything that's been missing lately in the first quarter, especially their 5-5 start from 3. Jayson Tatum dropped 15 in the second quarter to extend the lead to 12 at the half. It got up to 21 in the third quarter behind a big Jaylen Brown performance, and that's where it stayed through the fourth as the C’s cruised to a much-needed easy win.
The Celtics started out well enough to take an early lead with their effort, but their sloppiness led to 13 points off turnovers in the first quarter. A six-point deficit after one turned to 19 at one point, but the Celtics defense settled down and Boston went into the half down only eight. It got back to 19 thanks to Orlando’s hot shooting, and it got no better in the fourth as Orlando cruised to the win.
The Celtics sat their entire starting five and Al Horford.
STATS (league rank)
Offensive rating - BOS: 119.5 (3) | ORL: 108.9 (15)
Defensive rating - BOS: 110.1 (4) | ORL: 109.1 (2)
True Shooting - BOS: 59.1% (8) | ORL: 55% (28)
Offensive rebounding rate - BOS: 29.1% (18) | ORL: 30.2 (12)
Defensive rebounding rate - BOS: 71.7% (7) | ORL: 72% (6)
Turnover rate - BOS: 12.2% (2) | ORL: 14.7% (20)
Opponent FT rate - BOS: 19.8% (1) | ORL: 28.7% (30)
HOW ORLANDO WINS
Luck.
HOW BOSTON W…
… okay, there's a way they win without just pure luck. But let’s be clear, they’ll need some luck along the way.
Everyone has been throwing out the stat that Orlando is the best team in the NBA in opponent 3-point attempts allowed at 31.4 per game. They allowed three fewer than Houston, who were second best. But another stat that highlights the Magic defense is that they were also number one in opponent assists at 22.8.
“They switch. They have a lot of great defenders,” Jayson Tatum said this week. “They kind of funnel you into the paint. They're a big team. They have a lot of guys that will go at you, especially guys off the bench that make it difficult. So something that you gotta be ready for."
Orlando’s best chance of pulling an upset will follow this formula:
- The 3-point defense is as advertised and the Celtics average in the low 30s per game.
- Tatum and Brown are drawn into isolation mismatches, hunting because Orlando switches and refuses to help off shooters.
- The supporting cast goes ice cold because of the defense.
- Orlando’s role players have a ridiculous, outlier, Caleb Martin-like shooting series.
We’ve seen this stuff happen before, so as unlikely as it is, it’s not impossible. Orlando is not a great offensive team, but they're going to need some outlier offense to be able to force a half-court battle. They are a tremendous defensive team, but they're going to need incredible discipline to maintain that.
This could simply come down to Tatum and Brown beating their matchups, relentlessly piling up points in the paint, and forcing the Magic to help when they don’t want to. The key here will be attacking early and not getting too deliberate with the mismatch hunting. Both teams play at a slow pace in terms of possessions, but Boston can play with good tempo and beat the Magic’s half-court defense.
Okay now …
HOW BOSTON WINS
Defense, defense, defense. Their best offense will be their defense forcing misses, clearing rebounds, and getting out in transition. This is the easiest way to negate their defensive advantage.
Orlando does not shoot well. Their four highest-volume shooters are Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Cole Anthony. Anthony is the best of them, hitting 35% of his shots. Wagner hits 29.5% and Banchero 32%. So the Celtics will try to funnel the Orlando offense behind the 3-point line and then clear the rebounds.
That, of course, opens them up to the variance game, but the Magic’s m.o. is long offensive droughts when their offense grinds to a halt. It’s hard to imagine four games of hot shooting against Boston’s engaged defense.
The Magic shot better than 40% from 3 in 14 games this season. Boston had 27. The Magic shot less than 30% from 3 in 37 games. Boston had 12. No matter what happens in one game here or there, the Celtics sticking to what they do best will work.
PREDICTION
All the talk is about Orlando’s stout defense but Boston’s defense is also top-five, and that going against a mediocre offense is where this series gets ugly for Orlando.
I wouldn’t rule out a single-digit scoring quarter for the Magic somewhere in this series. I can see a first-half slugfest turn into a 25 point lead heading into the fourth quarter. I’ll give Orlando a game because their defense is that good and I like Banchero’s ability to carry the team for a long stretch.
But without Jalen Suggs and Mo Wagner, they lack the depth to give themselves a better shot. Jaylen Brown’s knee isn’t much of a concern because the Celtics have enough firepower to win even if he needs some extra rest. I think the Celtics are focused and hungry, and we’ll see the best version of them starting with this series.
Boston in five.