It’s never too early to look ahead and make some regular-season predictions, right?
It may only be the beginning of March, but Opening Day on March 27th in Texas will be here before we know it.
The key additions for this Red Sox team have been well-documented: Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler and Alex Bregman. Add Aroldis Chapman into the mix, and you’ve got a nice little handful of pieces.
But those four former All-Stars won’t be alone in deciding the Sox’ fate. Much of it will come down to the contributions of the cast around them, and particularly the progression of the team’s former top prospects like Triston Casas, Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela.
I would argue that those three players hold the key to turning this expected playoff roster into a true contender.
If Casas puts up the kind of power season we’ve long expected (let’s set the target at 30 homers and at least 75 RBIs), Bello becomes more consistent and can post an ERA well south of 4.00 and Rafaela can bump his average near .270, we could be talking about quite the team here…
That is, of course, contingent on Crochet being Crochet, Buehler being Buehler and Bregman being Bregman. We already know we can count on Rafael Devers for a 30-100 type season when healthy. Then whatever you get from the likes of Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida is gravy, and perhaps another step forward for Wilyer Abreu, you’re in business.
Of course, it’s rare for everybody to be firing on all cylinders (and staying healthy) in a given year. There will be some pleasant surprises, and there will be some down years. The best teams are able to thrive in spite of that because they’ve assembled enough good talent to survive the ups and downs, and I believe the timing may be right for these Sox to do just that.
The final teams to make the cut last October won 86 games, and I believe that’s a fair expectation of these Red Sox. Put me down for 86 wins on the record. World beaters they likely won’t be, but that represents a significant step forward from last year’s 81-81 affair.
One positive thing we can say about last year’s Sox is that they were pretty close — five wins away close, in fact. Their three key offseason additions coupled with consistent and developing contributions from others should be enough to bridge that gap…
Closer look
A good closer is the always cherry on top of any memorable team. Ideally, they’re the last person you want to see on the mound before ending a successful season with a World Series championship.
Keith Foulke was a folk hero in 2004. Jonathan Papelbon embraced the role and the city unlike any other. Even Craig Kimbrel, who many knocked for a shaky postseason (yet he never blew a save during that 2018 postseason run), put his stamp on a championship team.
Will we be able to add Liam Hendriks or Aroldis Chapman to that list?
Hendriks and Chapman both made their spring Sox debuts this week, each logging scoreless appearances in non-save situations during Wednesday’s game against Tampa Bay. Chapman tossed two-thirds scoreless with a pair of walks and a strikeout. Hendriks allowed one hit and struck out one in a full inning of work.
Only one has pitched since, with Chapman again walking a pair but striking out two in a scoreless fourth inning to pick up the win Sunday against Minnesota.
Personally, I’m not so much interested in their good stats during the spring, but their bad. If anything, we’ll learn which of the two can’t cut it in the role anymore, although I doubt that either is going to bottom out over the course of the coming month.
I would lean Hendriks to start the year for a couple of reasons. Number one, I think it’s safe to say he’s likely to be less wild than Chapman. Apples to apples, though, Chapman’s fastball is more untouchable than Hendriks’ best effort, which has topped out at (a still pretty solid) 96 mph this spring.
Chapman had the benefit of staying healthier and is coming off a decent season in his own right, but Hendriks strung together a solid run in his early- to mid-30s before a shaky start to 2023 and ultimately getting injured.
The second reason is this: frankly, he’s a more likable guy with a better story than Chapman, whose flaws are well-documented. Going back to the Foulkes, Papelbons and Kimbrels above, I’d actually like to be able to root for my closer…
Yet having Chapman waiting in the wings seems like an ideal Plan B.
The high road
Roman Anthony's first Sox spring is off to a good start in one key metric: handling the press.
After his defensive prowess was questioned on local radio this week, the 20-year-old had the opportunity to do what some of his teammates have had no problem doing in chirping back at the media.
Instead, he chose to take the high road.
“They’re always there and they hold us to a standard,” Anthony told MassLive.com. “And I love that. I think playing in Boston, you’re playing meaningful baseball 24/7. So just taking on challenges like that is something I’m super excited to be a part of and to learn about when I’m actually there.”
That sounds like the response of a leader, to me. To a T, that is how you should respond when someone is critical — rightly or wrongly — of you as a professional athlete. Take the negative and spin it into a positive.
There will be times when Anthony faces unjust criticism — it comes with the territory of being a pro athlete and a top prospect to boot — and as he ages, he’ll earn more of a voice to speak back against those types of remarks.
But for now? Anthony is making the smart play and de-escalating instead of making inflammatory comments.
Above all else, let your play do the talking…
NESN’S 360
The oft-maligned television broadcasting arm of the Red Sox has made a bit of an about-face.
NESN’s streaming endeavor, NESN 360, has announced a “pride reduction” of its annual subscription cost from $330 down to $240.
That’s a win for fans, and it’s likely indicative of something we’ve all recognized from the get-go: the price was just way too freaking high.
I mean, come on. Not even Netflix and its more than 5,000 movies and 2,500 TV shows charges $29.99 a month for its service. You’re expecting me to pay double that for a product with less to offer?
You can still pay $29.99 a month for NESN 360 if you choose to do so on a monthly subscription, but a one-time annual fee of $239.99 nets out to about $20 a month. That’s better… but still not where it should be. This thing really should cost $15 bucks or less.
It’s not exactly a smooth experience, as we’ve come to learn too…
Amazing Bruins goal!
— Savage (@SavageSports_) February 26, 2025
Must watch!
Good job NESN! 🔥
🎥: @eastonman03 pic.twitter.com/ZssBogoGLz
Farewell
Finally, it’s time for me to say goodbye.
When Greg Bedard reached out to me about a year and a half ago, I wasn’t exactly looking to get back into the print journalism game. I was firmly entrenched in radio, my first love, and was several years removed from my last writing jobs.
But the opportunity and situation seemed like a good one, so I rolled the dice and took a chance.
I am so very glad that I did.
I have found my time at Boston Sports Journal to be personally and professionally fulfilling, refreshing ... and downright fun. Our time together has been great, even though much of it came with the Red Sox playing some mediocre baseball.
I take pride in being someone who grew up a diehard Boston sports fans and has had the opportunity to live out my childhood dreams covering these teams. It's that spirit that has formed my voice and writing style. I have used my voice in an attempt to hold this organization to the highest standard that you, the fans, deserve.
I’d like to think that, together, we have held ownership and the front office accountable up to the standard they have set for themselves and have made a difference with our demands to bring winning baseball back to Boston. With their response this offseason, I am certainly optimistic.
I have been blown away by the BSJ community, which includes some of the smartest and most loyal Boston sports fans I’ve ever encountered. I still maintain that this is the best online community in Boston sports bar none. Interacting with you on a weekly basis has been a treat.
I made my decision to walk away for a number of reasons, including a desire to branch out beyond sports. Sports will always be a part of my story and I will remain active in the field, but I have a shifting sense of direction in a new season of my life.
I truly appreciate and respect each and every one of you, and from the bottom of my heart, I say thank you.
And to Greg, I also share a heartfelt thank you for taking a chance on me and extending me this opportunity to work for you and your site. I remain humbled and will always be grateful.
Please do feel free to stay in touch on social media or shoot me an email at gethin@gethincoolbaugh.com.
I’ll still be around the old ballpark…
Go Red Sox.