Giardi: NFL Notebook - Patriots path is clear, and March matters less than it ever did. Plus, is Stafford on his way out?

Free agency ain't what it used to be.

Gone are the days of piss-poor salary cap management and adherence to primitive contracts. Now, organizations have shown a willingness to eat massive amounts of dead cap and, in some cases, reached the playoffs (see the Broncos post-Russell Wilson).

Void years are all the rage - what's old is new again (Leigh Steinberg and the Patriots used them as part of Drew Bledsoe's massive contract in the 90s). Popularized in recent years by the Saints, embraced by the Buccaneers in the Tom Brady era (he signed a one-year deal and added three dummy years to it to spread out the signing bonus), and weaponized by the Jeffrey Lurie/Howie Roseman Eagles, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team in the league not using void years (in fact, I couldn't find one).

Now comes Wednesday's news that the salary cap increase this year — it will fall somewhere between $277 and $281 million for 2025-26 — is significantly higher than initially projected ($265 million). That should give you some insight into why the Bengals can entertain the notion of extending Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and even Trey Hendrickson and not be overly concerned about being in 'cap jail.' Whether it's wise is a different conversation...

It's also why all this talk about how much cap space a team has - I'm looking at you, Patriots - doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot. Yeah, it beats the alternative, but what if there are no players worth spending it on? I don't mean in general - you can always find solid pieces to throw some cash at that will help raise your floor (if you do it right) - but who's truly worth the mega-buck deals to chew up large chunks of said space? 

Is it Josh Sweat, who's never been the best player on that Philadelphia defense (or even a top-5 player on that unit)? How about Milton Williams, someone who's never played over 50% of the snaps on that same Eagles 'D'? Is Davante Adams worth that kind of cake at this stage of his career (probably)? LT Ronnie Stanley (ditto)? Guard Trey Smith (it wasn't his best year)? 

Oh sure, I wouldn't say no to any of those guys, and if you 'overspend' on a few pieces, the organization can easily absorb the additional dollars because of what I've written above. But the way the league is structured now and how these franchises are run means the true difference makers - think Reggie White back in the day or Peyton Manning in 2012 - never get to the highest bidder.

That means the true pathway for building a good, contending team that doesn't burn hot for a year only to crumble the next (2021 Patrots to 2022 Patrots) is to draft, develop, and then supplement the roster in free agency. The days of going from also-ran to instant contender are rare. Don't throw Washington at me this year. Yes, they added a bunch of solid pieces in March, but Jayden Daniels being a supernova is why they ascended to unforeseen heights.

This off-season feels more like a 2020 to 2021 Patriots scenario, where you throw money at a bunch of spots (that year, it was TE, DT, Edge, WR) and see a return to respectability, perhaps even a playoff spot (as that team did). That's more than okay. Needed, even, but for the Pats to become viable year after year, it will be about what happens during those three days in April, not only this year but the next and the one after that (and so on and so forth).

BIG SWING FORTHCOMING?

Packers running back Josh Jacobs ruffled some feathers in his locker room while making the media rounds during Super Bowl week. While praising Green Bay's collection of talent in the wide receiver room, Jacobs added, "We need a guy that’s proven to be a No. 1 already.” That prompted social media reactions from teammates Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. They expressed displeasure with those words, but perhaps Jacobs had a point.

The Packers fell short in the playoffs after a strong regular season, and that deep collection of pass catchers didn't elevate in the biggest moments. In addition, Christian Watson may be lost for the entirety of the 2025-26 season after blowing out his knee late in the year. So what do you think, GM Brian Gutekunst?

“Certainly, if there’s somebody outside of our building, whether it’s the draft, free agency, that makes some sense for us, we’ll certainly look to do that, but we’re also looking for these guys to continue to grow and hopefully grow into that space," he said.

The latter part of the statement seems more likely. The Packers have invested heavily in the draft and development model, especially at wideout, using six draft picks on WRs in 2022 and 2023. Going outside the organization to sign Davante Adams or trade for the likes of D.K. Metcalf would signal quite a philosophical shift.

"I will tell you, I think our collection of receivers is pretty darn good," said Matt LaFleur at his season-ending press conference. "I think we’ve got six guys we definitely feel like we can lean on.”

That said, the Adams-back-to-Green Bay has picked up some steam, partly stoked by Adams himself. He has expressed an interest in returning to the place where he became a star, and guys like Jacobs, CB Keisean Nixon, and safety Xavier McKinney have been making googly eyes at the 32-year-old.

Adams has flirted right back, admitting he would consider a return if "they Packers) felt like that was a possibility."

"Obviously, this is going to be an interesting offseason," he added while speaking to Kay Adams. "Different from any I've had in the past, talking about potential landing spots is a little bit different this time. I don't know, we'll see. Definitely keeping an open mind."

Adams has yet to be released by the Jets, but that's a formality. He has an onerous cap charge of $38.3 million, although none is guaranteed. The Jets would clear $29 million once they cut Adams.

"I came here with the hopes that I wouldn't have to find a new home, so it's kind of bittersweet, I guess," Adams said of New York.

But there will be a market for him, whether the Packers jump in or not (Chargers, Rams, and 49ers have been mentioned). Considering the unlikelihood that Higgins and Chris Godwin get free agency, Adams becomes the most popular kid at the party.

As for the Patriots, there is mixed reporting on whether or not Adams and Josh McDaniels vibe (Bedard says they do, but I have heard otherwise), although a lot of guaranteed dollars can always make the heart grow fonder. 

REALITY CHECK

Deebo Samuel asked for and was granted permission to seek a trade. However, if the 49ers make a move with their hybrid wide receiver/running back, it would likely be a release.

The trade option seems illogical (not that franchises don't love to dabble in that playground), even with the increasing cap. Why? GM John Lynch has restructured Samuel's contract to the point where the dead cap hit is $31.55 million and would jump to $47 million if traded after March 22 (his option bonus kicks in). For a team that a) thinks they can win next year and b) must decide what to do with quarterback Brock Purdy and 25 additional free agents, including safety Talanoa Hufanga, guard Aaron Banks, and cornerback Charvarious Ward, that doesn't make a lot of sense.  

What does is designating Samuel as a post-June 1st release, minimizing the dead cap hit to $10.55 million this year and then $20 million in 2026. It's still not awesome, but it's significantly better than the alternative, allowing Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan a little more flexibility as they re-tool for the upcoming season.

"You can't really replace Deebo," said teammate George Kittle earlier this week. "I think he's one of the most unique players in the NFL because of what he can do. ... he's so good when he gets the ball in his hands. 

"The fact that you can line him up in the slot, out wide, in the backfield and do all the fun stuff with him, and he breaks tackles, he runs like a running back, and he has the burst, he has the speed, he has the agility to get away from guys too."

Samuel hasn't been nearly as productive since earning Pro Bowl honors in 2021 for his 77-catch/1405-yard receiving/365-yard rushing/14-touchdown performance. The 29-year-old has dealt with several injuries that have slowed him down, costing him some games in recent years and affecting his productivity. Perhaps a change of scenery and the promise of new guaranteed money will give him a jolt for the upcoming season.

BIG DECISION

Only one team pushed the Eagles in this postseason, and it wasn't the Chiefs in the Super Bowl or the Commanders in the NFC title game. That team was the Los Angeles Rams, who did so on a snowy Lincoln Financial Field in mid-January. If you've forgotten by now - I can't remember what the hell I just ate for breakfast five minutes ago, so I don't blame you - the Rams had the ball inside Philly's 20 in the game's closing minutes. That's when Jalen Carter took over, preserving a 28-22 victory. But the Rams were thisclose.

But after winning six of their final eight games, including a Wild Card weekend victory over Minnesota, LA is at a crossroads with its most important player, quarterback Matthew Stafford. The team's brass did not commit to the 37-year-old as their signal caller for the upcoming season despite Stafford's continuing to be a high-level player - "We’ll talk about all those things at the appropriate time,” said Sean McVay at his season-ending press conference. Part of this stems from last off-season, when the two sides couldn't reach an acceptable contract extension and instead frontloaded his 2024 deal (his 2025 cap hit is $50 million). Now, after conversations before the Super Bowl went nowhere, the two sides promise to reconvene shortly in hopes of working something out. But the lack of public commitment also sends out the Bat signal to QB-needy teams across the league that - perhaps - Stafford could be had for a price.

Yes, Stafford has one year remaining on his deal, but aside from a $4 million roster bonus due on the third day of the league year, he has no guaranteed money remaining. If the Rams deal him post-June 1st, they can save $27 million. If they choose to cut him with the same designation, that's $23 million in savings. But doing so almost certainly means weakening the position in the short term - Jimmy Garoppolo and Stetson Bennett are the backups - and for a team that is now built on the backs of a young and improving defense, it would seem short-sighted of McVay and GM Les Snead to move on when they could be a legit title contender. But if we've learned anything about the Rams, they aren't afraid to buck the norm.