The Celtics kick off the final third of their regular season schedule tonight in Philadelphia. With the first two-thirds of the year giving us two distinct versions of the Celtics, the third will go a long way in letting us know who they will be heading into the playoffs.
So with that in mind, let’s look at the remaining schedule and find out where the tests will be and what kind of light they might shine on the Celtics.
END OF FEBRUARY: Feb. 20 @ Philadelphia, Feb. 23 New York, Feb. 25 @ Toronto, Feb. 26 @ Detroit, Feb. 28 Cleveland
The Sixers, as of now, are expected to have their three stars, Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey. They also signed Lonnie Walker, bringing him back after a short stint in Europe. I still feel like this should be a Boston win because there's no way Embiid is in any kind of shape. Walker could be a wild card, though. He might be motivated to show the Celtics something, so we’ll see if he can make things more difficult.
Still, I like Boston in that game. I also like the matchup against New York at home on that Sunday afternoon. That's an ABC game so Boston will be up for that one.
The Raptors/Pistons back-to-back is our first interesting situation in this portion of the schedule. The Celtics will have just played the Knicks on national TV and they have the Cavs coming up at home on Friday. This is a back-to-back and the second and third games of a three-in-four stretch, so one of these games could be a letdown. If Boston smokes Toronto, will they give in to some fatigue and struggle against Detroit? If they do struggle, will they still win?
There will be a couple more stretches on the schedule where this question is asked: Are the Celtics past giving in to easy excuses? Are they still going to be saving themselves for later, or are they going to start ramping up and coming with more focus? They should beat Toronto and Detroit, even with it being a back-to-back and three-in-four stretch.
Of course, Detroit is no pushover. It’s no longer shameful to lose to the Pistons. The key, as always, is how they play and not whether they win or lose. I’d be less encouraged by a garbage effort that still leads to a win than a great effort that just runs up against a great night by the opponent. I want to see them playing well, and that should work out in their favor most of the time.
So for now I’ll just say this stretch to end February should be the beginning of a healthy winning streak. I think they’ll be up for the Cavs at home and they’ll win that game, giving them five in a row out of the break and eight in a row overall. I’ll leave room for one slip up in there, but my expectations are high.
TOUGH HOMESTAND TO START MARCH: Mar. 2 Denver, Mar. 5 Portland, Mar. 6 Philadelphia, Mar. 8 LA Lakers, Mar. 10 Utah, Mar. 12 OKC
Counting the Cavs game, this is a seven-game homestand that presents some serious challenges, including maybe the biggest test of the remaining schedule.
They’ll be up for the Denver game, which is another Sunday matinee on ABC. But at this point the games are starting to pile up, and the opponents are getting tough.
Two days off before the Portland/Philly back-to-back will be nice, and again, I expect good things here. But here’s where it gets really tricky.
The Lakers will be the third game in four nights, the Jazz will be the fourth in six, and OKC will be the fifth in eight.
If they can get up for the Lakers game, then I can see a complete letdown against the Jazz ahead of the Thunder game. Boston owes OKC a full 48, so a weird beat LA, lose to Utah, beat OKC stretch isn’t out of the question.
I can see a 5-2 homestand here. Losses to the Jazz and Blazers but wins over the Cavs, Nuggets, Sixers, Lakers, and Thunder.
This will be an important stretch for Torrey Craig. One way the Celtics might find more success is by strategically sitting certain guys so they can rest while pushing the active players to play harder. Craig gives Joe Mazzulla a reliable vet who can either keep minutes down for his stars, or even give one a night off. Some strategic resting in this stretch could not only keep legs fresh, it could push the active players to try harder.
A TOUGH BACK-TO-BACK: Mar. 14 @ Miami, Mar. 15 @ Brooklyn
The Heat game tips at 7 p.m., then Boston has to make the three-hour flight from Miami to New York, and then they play the Nets at 6 p.m. They won’t get into their hotel rooms until past 4 a.m. This is one of the toughest back-to-backs in the league in terms of travel. Luckily those are both winnable games.
Again, can they find something in them to power through the fatigue? This is going to test them.
A REPRIEVE, THEN HEADING WEST: Mar. 18 Brooklyn, Mar. 21 @ Utah, Mar. 23 @ Portland, Mar. 24 @ Sacramento, Mar. 26 @Phoenix, Mar. 29 @ San Antonio, Mar. 31 @ Memphis
Two days off before and after facing Brooklyn at home will be nice, but then things start to ramp up one last time.
Utah, Portland, and Sacramento isn’t the toughest trio of games, but the three-in-four stretch will test them again. Finishing a four-in-six stretch in Phoenix makes it a little tougher, but that's another winnable game. They might drop one in this group, but I think they can run this whole stretch in the west at 5-1. Memphis might give them a challenge, so 4-2 is also reasonable.
AN UNCERTAIN APRIL: Apr. 2 Miami, Apr. 4 Phoenix, Apr. 6 Washington, Apr. 8 @New York, Apr. 9 @Orlando, Apr. 11 Charlotte, Apr. 13 Charlotte.
If they need to go 7-0 for seeding purposes, they have that within their grasp with this schedule. I think the worst-case scenario will be needing to beat the Knicks to hold them off for the second seed. All of these games are winnable, but I don’t know where Boston will be in relation to the rest of the East, so a bunch of these games could be run by a skeleton crew.
I’ll just note that a New York/Orlando back-to-back is almost as bad as the Miami/Brooklyn one. The flight to Orlando is 20 minutes shorter and the drive from the airport to the hotel is probably quicker.
In the end, I don’t think Boston reaches 60 wins. I’m betting they end up somewhere around 57. I don’t think they're focused on getting the top seed, but beating Cleveland gets them a full game closer and any sort of Cavs slide might change their thinking.
At this point, though, I think the two games against New York are the most important remaining games in terms of seeding. Win those and I think we’ll see the Celtics coast a little bit more in April. I’m not sure if they’ll try any engineering of the standings, which could impact how seriously they take some of these games.
There are a few tough stretches that I’ll be watching closely to see if they show us more than they have in the middle of the season. Those three-in-fours will be telling, as will the end of that big homestand. I would like to see some more signs of them gearing up for the stretch run.