Bedard: 8 thoughts on the state of the Patriots/NFL as offseason draws closer (updated with Higgins news)

Eight thoughts on the Patriots/NFL while I wait for the Tkachuk brothers to drop the gloves again ...

1. The next big date on the NFL's calendar is 4 p.m. Tuesday, which is when NFL teams may designate franchise or transition players through March 4.

The Patriots don't have any candidates (I mean, I guess you could make an argument for K Joey Slye at $6.2 million), but this is when fans' dreams of a bountiful free agency often go up in smoke.

But I'm not sure that's going to happen this year with the tag numbers getting a bit out of control.

Some of the key decisions to come:

WR Tee Higgins, Bengals ($26.2 million tag): The bell of the free agency if he gets there. QB Joe Burrow has made waves saying the Bengals can keep Higgins if they want to. Will the Brown family do that? It's doubtful with Trey Hendrickson and Ja'Marr Chase needing extensions. I'm not even sure they'd risk tagging and trading Higgins, which would be the smart thing to do. 

UPDATE: SI.com is reporting the Bengals are planning to franchise Higgins for the purpose of signing him to an extension, to trade him:

Last year the Bengals tagged Higgins and there wasn't much dialogue about a long-term contract. He was the only player that was tagged by his team last year that didn't sign a multi-year extension.

This year feels different. The Bengals plan to sign the star receiver to a long-term deal, sources say.

Like I said, this is the smart move for the Bengals - whether they get an extension done or not. If you don't tag Higgins and he signs elsewhere, you're only going to get a max third-round comp pick. Tag and trade would at least bring a first-round pick, if not much more.

If contract talks break down, you can still trade him.

LT Ronnie Stanley, Ravens ($23,049,000): Baltimore doesn't have much cap space and has two looming fifth-year options to consider. Stanley is likely to hit the market - may allow the Ravens to match - and you figure he'd be high on the Patriots' list. He'd be a perfect veteran player to have as a bridge to a younger drafted tackle, who are often better served by starting at RT for a season or two and then transitioning.

S Jevon Holland, Dolphins ($18.321 million): Cap constraints and a little bit of a step back with changing schemes means that Holland probably won't get franchised.

If the Patriots were able to land Higgins, Stanley and Holland, they would have already filled three huge areas of need.

DT Osa Odighizuwa, Cowboys ($24.745 million): Dallas has a ton of work to do and that price for an interior rusher who isn't great against the run would be too rich for anyone.

CB DJ Reed, Jets ($19.8 million): Hard to imagine former Jets CB Aaron Glenn not wanting to keep Sauce Gardner and Reed together but with Aaron Rodgers' dead cap set to hit with limited cap space, it's hard to imagine that happening. 

DE Josh Sweat, DT Milton Williams, Eagles ($21.7 million, $24.8 million): Two of the stars of Philly's Super Bowl run are set to break the bank on the open market and there's probably not much that even Howie Roseman can do about it.

CB Charvarious Ward, S Talanoa Hufanga, 49ers ($19.9 million, $18.3 million): Ward is older and has slipped a little, Hufanga has durability issues so a tag for either would be surprising.

2. Jason LaCanfora of the Washington Post reported one GM told him that he expected Higgins to sign with the Patriots.

"I think he’s going to New England," the first GM said. Patriots owner Robert Kraft "took a lot of [expletive] for not spending any money, rightfully so, and I hear they really want this guy."

3. Other key NFL dates:

Feb. 24-March 3: Scouting combine
March 10, Noon - March 12 4 p.m.: Negotiation period when all the big free agents are locked up.
March 12, 4 p.m.: League year begins. Free-agent contracts can be signed and trades consummated. 
March 30-April 2: Annual league meetings, Palm Beach.
April 7: Clubs that hired new head coaches, like the Patriots, may begin offseason workout programs two weeks before other teams. (Patriots delayed by a week last year).
April 24-26: NFL Draft, Green Bay.
May 1: Deadline for Clubs to exercise Fifth-Year Option for players selected in the first round of the 2022 Draft (Cole Strange).

4. Nick Caley, who turned down the Patriots last year, was introduced as the Texans' OC last week. He said a lot of nice things about the Patriots, including Dante Scarnecchia's influence. But it will be interesting to monitor how Caley does in his new role, which is a huge leap for a career TEs coach, who only added pass game coordinator last season with the Rams. Caley hasn't really touched a quarterback in his coaching, and getting CJ Stroud back on track is the chief part of his job. Some in New England are surprised he has risen so fast and caution about his readiness. As for the scheme Caley uses, he gave some word salad.

"It is going to be Houston's," Caley said. "It is going to be our scheme based on what we do. I don't say that to throw any curveballs. It really is. I mean, my history, dating back to when I first got in the National Football League under Coach Belichick, is we were going to be a game-plan team. If that meant we were going to run duo and gap schemes and run the ball 45 times to win the game, then that's what we were going to do. We had to run more perimeter plays, wide zone, and we felt that was going to give us the edge. We were going to do that. We were going to ask our guys to do what they do well, but it was going to be based on what we do to help us win."

5. By the way, what a novel concept by Texans to have Demeco Ryans and Caley side by side for 28 minutes to answer questions about the direction of the offense and how Caley came to be hired.

A similar Mike Vrabel-Josh McDaniels venture would have cut through a lot of the bullcrap that's out there.

6. The point I was trying to make last week on radio and my podcast was that I'm not saying the Patriots and Tom Brady would have never been blown out in a Super Bowl like Patrick Mahomes has been twice (both when his pass protection was horrible), it's just we'll never know because you're not playing the same caliber of opponent.

People don't understand how good the Eagles' defense was once they settled down and took to Vic Fangio's scheme after the Week 5 bye. Aaron Schatz explains it better than I can:

That's a list of the best defenses of all time. That's how good they were. (Also notable is that Peyton Manning was blown out by the 2013 Seahawks on the list.)

Outside of the 2001 Rams, which was perhaps the greatest total team victory in NFL history, four of Mahomes' Super Bowl opponents were better than any of Brady's in terms of total DVOA: '24 Eagles (since the bye), '23 49ers, '19 49ers, '20 Bucs.

In terms of defenses, all five of Mahomes' opponents were better by DVOA than Brady's opponents, and the two he lost two were the top two.

Most are right. The combo of Brady and Belichick might never been blown out in the same games. But we'll never know that.

7. Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has been accused by seven more message therapists. What are the Ravens waiting for?

8. Congrats to Patriots legend Troy Brown for landing with the Giants through the NFL Minority Coaching Fellowship. But, man, that's a serious demotion for a man who was the Patriots' receivers coach for THREE seasons under Bill Belichick.