Part 1 in a series on free agency, which begins March 10 at Noon. Today's focus is on safety.
This looked like one of the Patriots' best position groups a year ago. Kyle Dugger got a healthy contract extension (I wouldn't have done it, but I understood why they did), and Jabril Peppers got his big raise during the summertime. Marte Mapu was a third-round pick with some promise, even if Jerod Mayo told us in the off-season that the team wasn't quite sure where Mapu fit best (because of the injuries). They added a player with starting experience in Jaylinn Hawkins, who didn't quite answer the call for a true free safety but gave the team some level of flexibility, and then Dell Pettus showed signs of life in training camp, and this felt like a sure bet.
Then it all went to hell.
Peppers played the first four games before off-field issues popped up, and we didn't see him play again until the start of December. He appeared two games thereafter before injuries ended the rest of his season. That was a debacle.
Dugger got off to a decent start but then injured his ankle, and his entire season careened off the tracks. He missed four out of five weeks and, when he did return, was one of the team's most disappointing players. Teammates appreciated Dugger's toughness and willingness to play through the pain, but not only was he hampered physically, but he was also in the middle of a lot of communication/coverage breakdowns.
Mapu still appears to be a man without a home, although he flashed some traits that made him a day-two pick. He was excellent at Buffalo and then against the Chargers in back-to-back weeks, and also had a solid showing earlier in the year versus Houston. But that body continues to hamper his overall progress.
Pettus was a nice find as an undrafted free agent and could have a future that goes beyond special teams. Brenden Schooler is as good as it gets in that facet but also showed a little on defense. That speed and tackling ability can play a little, although he's still not someone the previous regime trusted in coverage.
Signed for 2025:
- Kyle Dugger (2025 cap hit $15.5/signing bonus $4.5 mil/$1 mil roster bonus/$250K workout bonus/dead cap $23.25 mil)
- Jabril Peppers (cap hit $6.45 mil/$1.5mil signing bonus/$300K roster bonus/$150K workout bonus/$7 mil dead cap)
- Marte Mapu (cap hit $1.51 mil/$261K signing/$523K dead cap)
- Dell Pettus (cap hit $963K/$6K dead cap)
- Brenden Schooler (cap hit $2.25 mil/$475K signing/$450l roster/$100K workout/$1.425 mil dead cap)
- Mark Perry (cap hit $840K)
Per Spotrac, Dugger had nearly $30 million guaranteed at signing (signing bonus, 2024 salary, and 2025 salary) if you're wondering about a potential deal/cut.
SHOOT FOR THE MOON
Jevon Holland: He's going to hit the market. Dolphins GM Chris Grier offered a lukewarm "we'll see how it goes" regarding Holland's potential return to Miami. It's not because Grier doesn't want the former second-round pick to return. It's because there's likely a big ole check coming Holland's way, and his performance doesn't measure up to other players at the top of the safety market. Is he Derwin James? Or Antoine Winfield Jr? Or even an aging rapidly Minkah Fitzpatrick? My answer is no. League sources concur. But even though the safety position took a hit in free agency a year ago (remember how many guys were cut and left to grab one-year deals?), Holland's age (he's not yet 25) and some very strong work in 2021 and 2023 (he was a PFF darling those years) will draw plenty of interest on the open market.
"I wouldn't hate the idea of coming back," Holland said recently about Miami. "I wouldn't hate the idea of leaving..."
Translation: The highest bidder wins.
PFF projects a 4-year deal for $98 million, $57 mill guaranteed.
OUT WITH ONE AND IN WITH ANOTHER?
If Mike Vrabel and company decide their best course of action is to move on from one of the two higher-priced items in the safety room, Talanoa Hufanga could be a worthy dice roll. The only reason I'd consider it risky is because San Francisco's safety has had a hard time staying in one piece. When you watch him play, you understand why. Hufanga is a 'see red, hit red' kind of player, much like Peppers and Dugger. He'd rather go through someone than go around. But he only managed to play 308 snaps last year, and much like the team, he struggled to find previous form.
PFF projects a 2-year, $25 million contract, with $16 million guaranteed (seems absurdly high to me).
CENTER FIELD
Camryn Bynum: I'm not sure he's getting to free agency. Multiple reports have Bynum's reps and the Vikings discussing an extension. That process could get sped up if veteran Harrison Smith calls it a career, as has been rumored. Bynum has eight career interceptions and was a terrific last line of defense in 2023 for Minnesota. His 2024 didn't measure up, but he's started every game in the previous three seasons and is a favorite of DC Brian Flores. Bynum is also on the all-time good vibes team. He's been the driving force behind some of the elaborate dance celebrations the Vikes did after touchdowns.
PFF projects 3 years for $42.5 million, with $28.5 million guaranteed (also seems a little too rich).
HE PROBABLY AIN'T COMING HERE
Justin Reid: The Chiefs safety said post-Super Bowl he would like to return to Kansas City, but based on the contract Budda Baker got from Arizona, you have to believe Reid will be angling for something similar. KC likely won't go to those lengths, but Reid has also indicated that playing for a winner is important. Pats could try and sell him on the future, but back-to-back 4-13 seasons is not the easiest thing to massage
PFF estimated a three-year deal worth $45 million, with $25 mil guaranteed.
Best of the rest: Smith, Justin Simmons, Tre'von Moehrig, Jeremy Chinn
