Trade Analysis: Miami sends Jimmy Butler to Golden State for Andrew Wiggins in multi-team deal

The Miami Heat have traded Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors. According to ESPN, Miami is receiving Andrew Wiggins and Kyle Anderson from the Warriors and PJ Tucker from Utah. They're also getting a top-10 protected first-round pick from the Warriors. Dennis Schröder is going from Golden State to Utah. Josh Richardson is heading from Miami to Detroit. 

It’s a confusing mess that is still being finalized with some moving pieces yet to determined. 

Karalis’ analysis

I see three chapters in this analysis: Miami finally re-tooling and comfortably being eliminated from seriously challenging in the East, the potential for Anderson to become available on the buyout market, and this not moving the needle much for the Warriors. 

Let’s start at the top. 

I know there's a play-in tournament so this isn’t how things exactly work anymore, but the current 2/7 matchup is Boston vs. Miami. And as much as I’d like a business trip to Miami in April for a drawn-out first-round series, I don’t feel like this is going to make it likely. I know Butler has been a weight around the team’s neck for a while, but his departure for basically just Wiggins has to be disappointing.

Miami dumped Butler off to the only team willing to give him some money and they took back whatever they could to make it happen. There is an outside chance that the pick becomes valuable because it’s reported to flip to an unprotected pick if it doesn’t convey the next two years, but that would require things to go terrible wrong between now and then for Golden State. 

Bottom line: Miami made this move for the future. They got under the aprons and tax and have opened up some future cap space, so they're clearly not interested in making any kind of push this season. They are hoping for a quick re-tooling rather than a full rebuild. 

I won’t, however, rule out a short-term bump for Miami as they dance and sing “ding dong the witch is dead” on their way to a few surprising wins. Just look at how invested they are in a fan telling them the details of the trade: 

Tyler Herro doesn’t seem broken up about it, does he?

I still don’t think it means much in the long term, but I wouldn’t be shocked by Miami galvanizing around this for a little while just because the distraction is gone.

Kyle Anderson was rumored to go to Toronto as part of the deal, but that fell through. He’s staying in Miami … for now, but they have no need for him. They can move him to a team with some cash so he can get bought out without it affecting their books, so that's still possible before the Thursday 3 p.m. deadline. 

If he gets moved, I’d expect Boston to be interested in his services. He is under contract for $8.7 million right now, so he’s within the financial limits that allow him to be signed by a second apron team. He is a capable 3-point shooter who makes good decisions and can be part of a good defense. He’s smart and plays within a system, so I think he can be a valuable piece on a team like Boston. 

At the same time, he’s 31 and hasn’t played on a champion yet, so this could be his best chance to get a ring while still making an impact. I think he’d get minutes regardless of the circumstances, and he could be a guy Joe Mazzulla trusts to maybe sneak Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown an extra minute or two of rest. 

And finally, there are the Warriors, who did well enough in this trade for me to view it positively. Wiggins wasn’t doing anything for them anymore, so why not roll the dice on Butler harnessing some magic for a season or two? I’m very much out on the “Playoff Jimmy” stuff, so I don’t think it’s going to happen. 

Butler is still good, but nowhere near what he was. I still think the reason he postured so hard is because he know he doesn’t have it like he used to and this was his best way of tricking a team into giving him some money. If he still had it, he would have taken the floor and shown it. If he still had it, he would have flexed some of it and showed teams what they might be getting. 

The Warriors might get Butler on his best behavior for a little while, but I’m not sure how long it will last. He’s joining the Warriors … Steph Curry’s team … and he’ll have to conduct himself as a secondary option. I’m not sure he has that in him. 

He is getting a two-year extension at about $60 million per year as part of the deal … a shocking amount for a player like him. That should keep him in line in the short term. The Warriors can tell Curry and Draymond Green that they tried their best given the circumstances, and if it doesn’t work, then so be it. 

I don’t expect it to work.