Conversations around the NFL are flowing like wine in an Italian restaurant (mmm, bolognese and a nice Chianti) and will continue for the next two and a half months. That's what happens when you get the prominent decision-makers all in one place, as we had with the Senior Bowl last week. Ideas get floated in the stands, hotel lobbies, and late-night watering holes. Would you be willing to trade your pick? What about this player? Agents are lurking. I think I saw Drew Rosenhaus call a play in practice. (I'm kidding, I guess.) You know the whole nonsense about tampering?
— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) February 5, 2025
These discussions will take on a higher level of seriousness as we approach the combine at the end of the month, but we've already had a trade request from Myles Garrett, and Cooper Kupp is on the block. Who's next? T.J. Watt? D.K. Metcalf? Calvin Ridley? As one front office exec told me via text Sunday, this has the potential to be a "spicy" off-season.
"There are going to be opportunities in the trade market to acquire star players, maybe more so than we've seen in recent years."
A look back at some recent big-name trades reveals the likes of Von Miller (2021), Russell Wilson (2022), DeShaun Watson (2022), Matthew Stafford (2021), Jason Pierre-Paul (2018), Orlando Brown (2021), and AJ Brown (2022). Miller was the only trade-deadline acquisition. The remainder were off-season moves centered mainly around draft picks. Considering the lack of high-end talent in this year's draft class, will more teams be motivated to go for the proven talent instead of the unknown, especially the ones that are either playoff teams or right on the doorstep (say Atlanta)?
"These are questions every organization asks themselves: where are we in terms of our build? What do we think we're capable of winning? And, in some cases, how desperate are we to save our jobs?" opined the same exec (AFC). "If you're in the back half of round one, would you want a 'B' prospect or someone like Garrett who can push you to the next level?"
So, how should the Patriots approach this period? By having irons in every fire, although league sources invariably look at the offensive and defensive lines and say that's where they have to start.
"Look at how they built out the Titans when Mike was there. At first, I know it was more Jon (Robinson, the GM), but Mike got more personnel control as they went along. Follow the breadcrumbs."
I did. The Titans had 18 top-100 picks in Vrabel's six seasons. Five of those picks went toward the offensive line: Nate Davis (2019), Isaiah Wilson (2020), Dillon Radunz (2021), Nicholas Petit-Frere (2022), and Peter Skoronski (2023). Two of those guys were first-rounders (Wilson was a disaster, Skoronski was a short-armed collegiate tackle who has become an All-Pro caliber guard. Cough cough, Will Campbell maybe). The two defensive linemen - Harold Landry in 2018 and Jeffery Simmons in 2019 - are different degrees of studs and are both still on the roster (though Landry could be a cap casualty). Building blocks, both.
The interesting thing regarding the Titans' DL approach was the comfort with their main pieces and then the swings in free agency to supplement. Denico Autry (hit), Teair Tart (hit), Bud Dupree (meh), DaQuan Jones (hit), and Jadeveon Clowney (miss).
Of course, these are not apples-to-apples comparisons, but when you look at where the Pats are - and their inability to put together a competent offensive line for three years - and a defensive line that couldn't find the quarterback with a GPS tracker last season, it makes all the sense in the world to start the return to respectability by addressing those areas.
"They have the potential to upgrade their roster in a real way this March and April," said another front office executive (NFC). "It's not just the vets that will be out there, but you just saw it at the Senior Bowl. The DL class is legit. Lots of good pieces there."
Will there be big names available on the OL? That's where everyone immediately turns (because who doesn't like shiny, expensive toys?). Perhaps LT Ronnie Stanley or RG Trey Smith will get to the market, and I'm sure the Pats would at least kick the tires, but the more logical approach will be to try to find a foundation with the mid- to lower-level free agents. Think more like Jedrick Wills (Cle), Will Hernandez (Az), Aaron Banks (SF), Justin Skule (TB) and Patrick Mekari (Balt). Combo platter that with a couple of draft picks and holdovers like Mike Onwenu, Layden Robinson, David Andrews, Cole Strange, Caedan Wallace, and Vederian Lowe, and perhaps the Pats can go from the bottom of the barrel to the 16th or 17th best-line. That would be a massive improvement, considering where they're coming from.
There's a need for at least one serious player on the DL, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Christian Barmore. You can't ask the likes of Daniel Ekuale to play as much as he did, and the absence of Matthew Judon was felt - even if he looked like he was on his last legs in Atlanta. Hence, why my mentions were filled with trade proposals for Garrett.
On the surface, I'd want to be in the Garrett business, even if he wants to be the highest-paid non-QB in NFL history. So it's not just trading assets for the player but writing a massive check. The Pats were willing to at least explore the possibilities of such a transaction last season (Brandon Aiyuk) and should be willing to do so again this winter. But a) trading the #4 overall pick for this roster feels like trying to jump the line when the roster isn't good enough, and b) Garrett says he wants to win championships. The hope is the Pats get to that point in a couple of seasons, but can you sell the player of that potential promise?
"You want to build something that can sustain," said the AFC exec. "Mike is smart enough to go about it in the right way. If he wins 8 or 9 games next season, it will signal to the rest of the league that they've got their shit back together (in Foxborough)."