***I can confirm Tom Pelissero's report that the Patriots and Mike Vrabel's agent are discussing a contract. We've been headed in this direction the moment the team moved on from Jerod Mayo.***
In many ways, the league is in the beginning stages of the coaching cycle. Who makes the most sense where? I'm taking an educated stab at it.
Chicago: Ben Johnson - I think that will be a mistake on his part unless the Lions OC gets a better sense of the power structure in the building. GM Ryan Poles wouldn't address whether he got a contract extension, and team president Kevin Warren did all the yakking at a press conference several weeks ago, declaring this would be the best job on the market. All while Poles just sat there. There's also the matter of the quarterback, Caleb Williams. He is undeniably talented, but some of his advanced numbers this year were alarming. The early season switch in coordinators didn't help his cause, and the belief that the Bears will want an offensive-minded HC to ensure this kid doesn't bust. As an aside, even though the Bears could interview several candidates in person, they opted to do round one virtually. Unserious organization.
Marcus Freeman, the Notre Dame head coach, who now has the Fighting Irish in the NCAA title game, is a darkhorse candidate with some support in that building.
New York Jets: The smart choice is Aaron Glenn. The Lions defensive coordinator just conducted a masterclass on Sunday night football, attacking a red-hot Vikings offense with zero blitzes, simulated pressures, and owning Kevin O'Connell in the red area (four trips, zero touchdowns). Considering the number of starters/contributors Glenn has had to coach around this season (13 are on injured reserve), it's quite an accomplishment for that team to have finished the regular season 15-2. He certainly has Dan Campbell's seal of approval.
"Aaron Glenn is -- he's as good a coach as you're going to find; he's an even better human being," Campbell said via the team's official transcript. "Look, if nobody wants him, I'll take him again. I can tell you that right now. The thought of going through another cycle and he's not somebody's head coach is ridiculous. I mean, this guy is as good as they come, and he can do it all. He understands how to manage a game, he understands offense, defense, special teams, he knows how to communicate, he understands discipline of players and he's motivating, he's inspiring."
Glenn is also considered a terrific leader. Robert Saleh wasn't that, and Jeff Ullbrich was put in an untenable situation (there's that word again). Glenn had a 15-year career in the NFL — he was the Jets' first-round pick in 1994 — and is good with the media. You need that in the NY/NJ market. This makes sense to me, which is probably why Woody Johnson will do something different.
And what will that be? Brian Flores. He has a real shot here. I think he would be a mess with that sort of media attention, and because of the rules, can't interview in person until the 20th of January (at the earliest), but
Las Vegas: They've tried the offensive genius type (Gruden, McDaniels) and a player's coach (Pierce). Where do they go now? Despite being a 5% owner, Tom Brady already wields considerable clout. Johnson wouldn't be interviewing for that job if not for Brady. They don't have a quarterback, it's not a good quarterback draft, and there's been incessant chatter linking the team to Shadeur Sanders, even if that may require a trade-up. So, the obvious approach is to let Johnson bring Adam Newmark with him as the GM and back whatever money Mark Davis has left (he's paying two head coaches not to coach for him, plus their staff), and hope that does the trick. When/If it doesn't, a young and probably not ready-for-primetime Joe Brady ends up as the fallback plan. He's done a nice job in Buffalo helping that offense evolve, but I think I'm becoming more and more of someone who would prefer the coach who makes chicken salad out of chicken poo than the guy who just buffs up a star.
Jacksonville: Liam Coen - Jags owner Shad Khan fired offensive-minded Doug Pederson, saying his team was entirely too predictable. To me, that immediately eliminates the defensive side of the ball as the HC. There is a strong feeling league-wide that Johnson is the top choice, but will Khan pay upwards of $15 million a season? And will Johnson be fine with Trent Baalke remaining in a position of power? Coen will come cheaper, and his influence on the Buccaneers may be just as impressive.
The Bucs ranked first in third-down percentage, were third in total offense (399.5 yards per game) and passing offense, and finished fourth in scoring (29.5 points per game), rushing offense, and red zone offense (66.7%). Mike Evans missed three games, and fellow wideout Chris Godwin played only seven before being lost for the season. The former UMass star has opened my eyes.
New Orleans: So when the Jets screw up the process, this is where I think Glenn actually lands. They want someone who is the polar opposite of previous HC Dennis Allen, i.e., a leader. As referenced above, that Glenn. He's got Drew Brees talking him up (Glenn also played for the Saints and coached DBs there before leaving for Detroit). Brees shouldn't have sway, but I'm told he does. In this case, though, I can't knock the choice. Glenn makes sense.
I also like the idea of Brady here. He was the passing game coordinator at LSU when Joe Burrow/Ja'Marr Chase/Justin Jefferson and company steamrolled the entire country, winning the National Title. He became the OC in Carolina under Matt Rhule and was dismissed 12 games into his second season there. The Panthers were 5-7 at the time. His quarterbacks during that time were Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, and Cam Newton.
AWARD WINNERS
As a Pro Football Writers Association member, I had to turn in my ballot for the major awards and an All-NFL ballot.
I'll share the first part with you in this week's Notebook.
MVP: Josh Allen
I have gone back and forth on Allen and Lamar Jackson for the last month. Statistically, Lamar had the better season (not by a wide margin). But I went with the Bills quarterback because this was supposed to be a reset year for Buffalo, but Allen didn't let it happen. He was the only guy to beat the Chiefs in a game that mattered, threw touchdown passes to a league-high 13 different receivers, and, by nerd numbers, was a more successful runner than Jackson (despite a nearly 400-yard difference in their totals). But to say it was a flip of the coin is fair (though I can't remember the last time I carried change).
Offensive Player of the Year: Lamar Jackson
Lamar became the first player in league history to throw for over 4,000 yards and rush for more than 800 (he finished with 915). The Ravens QB also threw 41 touchdowns and just four interceptions, leading the league in both yards per attempt and yards per rush (the first to lead both in the same season). Wait, can I change my vote? The league really needs to come up with a non-QB award, too, because Saquon Barkley and Chase have excellent cases.
Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt
Gave strong consideration to Patrick Surtain, but despite being the league's most dominant cornerback, he doesn't move into the slot to follow receivers. Meanwhile, the Steelers tell you where Watt is going to be on damn near every play, but teams still can't block him. He had double-digit sacks (11.5), led the league in forced fumbles (6), and tied for the lead in strip sacks (3). This was the award I felt the least excited about, and had Micah Parsons been healthy for the entire and producing at the clip he did, he would have been an easy winner.
Rookie of the Year: Jayden Daniels
What a season.
69.0 completion %, 3,568 pass yards, 25 pass TDs, 9 INTs, 100.1 passer rating, 891 rushing yards, and 6 rush TDs in 2024. The Commander's signal caller set the all-time qualified rookie record for completion percentage, the all-time rookie QB record for rush yards, and had the 4th-most offensive yards by a rookie in NFL history (4,459). Any questions?
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Daniels
See above. Vegas tight end Brock Bowers deserves something, and again, we may need to tweak the rules. In my process, he was a close second to Daniels as ROY
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Quinyon Mitchell
Jared Verse will probably win because he has the counting stats (sacks, QB hits, etc.), but Mitchell helped transform that aging Eagles secondary (along with fellow rookie Cooper DeJean). Vic Fangio had no problem sticking him on the opposing team's best receiver (and what a collection he faced), and yet the kid was taking names and kicking arse. A great nugget from PFF is that Mitchell gave up 61 yards after the catch, the fewest by any corner who played at least 50% of the team's snaps.
Comeback player of the year: Joe Burrow
Missed seven games last year with a rare wrist injury, and it looked like it was still bothering him in the week 1 loss to the Pats. About that...Burrow led the NFL in passing yards and TDs and, if not for a crappy defense, could have won the MVP.
Most Improved Player: Sam Darnold
He looked like he was going to be a forever failed top-3 pick and a career backup. Instead, after a season rehabbing his game in San Francisco under Kyle Shanahan, Darnold had a career year after signing a one-year contract in Minnesota. He finished with the 5th most passing yards (4,319) and pass TD (35). Both set new highs for Darnold (previous: 3,024 & 19 in 2019). And he's about to get really rich.
Coach of the Year: Kevin O'Connell
The Vikings were projected to win seven games. They won 14 and played for the NFC's #1 overall seed last weekend. Speaking of rich, O'Connell has one more year left on his contract. If Minnesota doesn't pony up, he will be the belle of the ball next off-season.
NERD NUMBERS
- Ladd McConkey had 50+ receiving yards in each of his final 10 games played. That's tied for the longest rookie streak since 1970 with Malik Nabers. He's also the first player not drafted in the 1st round to do so in 8+ games since 1970.
- Justin Herbert is the 3rd player in NFL history to have 3 or fewer INTs with 400+ pass attempts. He joins Aaron Rodgers (2018) and Tom Brady (2016).
- C.J. Stroud will be the 4th QB in NFL history to start a home playoff game in each of his first 2 seasons. Brock Purdy (2022-23), Lamar Jackson (2018-19), and HOF Dan Marino (1983-84) are the others.
- Only Ja’Marr Chase (12) has more rec TDs than the Ravens' Mark Andrews (11) since Week 6. Andrews didn't catch a TD in the first five games.
- The Bills have a +24 turnover margin in 2024 (best in NFL; PIT is 2nd at +16). It's also the best turnover margin by any team in a season since the 2012 Pats (+25).
- Josh Allen has a 21-4 pass TD-INT ratio and 1.1 INT% in the playoffs in his career. Those are the best among QBs with 10+ playoff starts in the Super Bowl era.
- The Broncos have 6 players with 5+ sacks in 2024 (most in NFL). Nik Bonitto (13.5), Jonathon Cooper (10.5), Zach Allen (8.5), John Franklin-Myers (7.0), Jonah Elliss (5.0,) and Dondrea Tillman (5.0).
- The 2024 Packers are the 4th team in NFL history to finish 3rd or worse in their division despite winning 11+ games (1984 Raiders, 1985 Patriots, 2020 Browns all 11-5).
- The Eagles have allowed 17.8 PPG in 2024 (2nd in NFL behind LAC: 17.7). That's the fewest in a season by PHI since 2004: 16.3 PPG allowed, lost SB XXXIX vs NE).
- The 2024 Commanders improved their record by 8 wins from 2023 (4-13 to 12-5), the most significant year-over-year win improvement in Washington franchise history.