With Black Monday almost upon us and what should be serious questions about the Patriots' current regime (but are there where it matters most?), now is a good time to explore this cycle's best head coaching candidates.
I spoke to several of my sources in the league and am trying to give you a snapshot of what each guy brings to the table. In a few cases, my guys had nothing worthy of transcribing, so I scoured the web to get you something — a real 'help me, help you' scenario.
Mike Vrabel: Vrabel's time with Cleveland as a consultant was cut short this week to allow the former head coach of the Titans to get a head start on vacancies. He went 54-45 in Tennessee, had four winning seasons, three playoff appearances, and one trip to the AFC Championship game. During his tenure, Vrabel had a major influence over the Titans' defense but worked with the Browns' tight ends and offensive line this season (i.e., he's not a one-trick pony). He will likely bring front office exec Ryan Cowden (GM?) along. It is well-known in league circles that Vrabel wants a stable ownership group that won't meddle but will support (money) the operation. Having lived life primarily with QBs like Ryan Tannehill and Marcus Mariota, having a good one (or being in a position to get one) is essential.
"He's exactly what the Patriots need," said one NFL assistant coach (who won't be leaving his current job, FWIW). "He'll bring them discipline, set a tone, and hold guys accountable. But above all, he's a really smart football mind. One of the brightest in the business."
Ben Johnson: The hottest offensive coaching mind in 2025 after being the hottest offensive coaching mind in 2024. Johnson seemed signed, sealed, and delivered to Washington last year, but something - he's never fully exlained - prevented him from leaving Detroit, and now he has the Lions thriving again. He is said to be intrigued with Chicago's opening, and with Caleb Williams, D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet, and Rome Odunze, plus cap space and draft picks, there's the potential to be good quickly.
"That guy puts on a playcalling clinic every week," another NFL assistant coach said. "Even when you're fully prepared for his offense, he always has a wrinkle or two that catches you off guard. And you can tell the players like playing for him."
Liam Coen: The former UMass star (arguably the best quarterback in school history/holds all the records) has a ton of coaching experience in college and the NFL. He's working some magic with a Tampa Bay offense without one of its best pieces, wide receiver Chris Godwin. The Bucs are the only offense with eight games of 400 yards or more.
"He's taken what (Dave) Canales (now Panthers HC) did with that group last year and bumped it up another level," said one league source.
Joe Brady: Buffalo's offensive coordinator since taking over for Ken Dorsey midway through last year, has helped to oversee a more balanced attack and managed to work around a receiving group that is without a true #1.
"Joe's embraced some of what Sean (McDermott) wants, in terms of being a more physical unit, and it's made them a more effective," said one front office exec. "They don't just need to have Josh (Allen) go into super-creator mode. They're capable of more and shown it."
Aaron Glenn: The Lions' defensive coordinator and former 1st round pick of the New York Jets, is not only considered good with Xs and Os but is one of those "leader of men" types NFL owners like to orate about during the introductory press conference. Glenn had the Detroit "D" flying, even for several weeks after Aidan Hutchinson's broken leg, and that will likely overshadow some of their more recent struggles.
“He keeps me on edge,” Ben Johnson told Yahoo last month. “It’s always iron sharpens iron. He has really challenged me to stay cutting-edge and attack. We’ve gone back and forth during training camp and in the springtime. We’ll make some adjustments, and he’ll make some adjustments. It’s just constant competition between the two of us.”
Ejiro Evero: The Panthers DC has had eight head coaching interviews in the last two seasons and was considered the runner-up in Atlanta and Seattle last year. Carolina's defense has been porous this season, possibly dulling his candidacy.
"Just a good football coach," said that same front office exec. "Well-respected by anyone who has played for or coached with him, Consistent in his approach and how he deals with the players. I'm a believer."
Jesse Minter: First-year DC in LA for the Chargers. How's this for a great first season? The Chargers are just the sixth team since 1970 to give up 20 or fewer points in eight road games in a season. Jim Harbaugh has been gassing up Minter, his Michigan DC, for months. Minter started his career as an assistant in Baltimore under John Harbaugh. Mike Macdonald's solid first season in Seattle - both men run a similar system - should only strengthen Minter's case, as should this bit from his head coach.
"He's a humble warrior; I mean, his picture could be right up there next to it," Harbaugh gushed on the Pat McAfee Show. "And a jackhammer. I'm about to go into a meeting with Jesse, and it's gonna be 'we played this,' and he's gonna want 'we can get better at this.' 'We had this many missed tackles, and we had the two defensive offsides penalties back to back.' He's always ... more is more for Jesse. He's just intuitive. He knows offensive football almost as well as defensive football. He knows how an offense is going to try to attack."
I'll have what he's having.
Kellen Moore: Hard to believe he's just 36. Moore has been in the spotlight since leading Boise State to great collegiate success as its QB and then as a competent backup in Dallas for the Cowboys. He's only been coaching since 2018, and after a season coordinating the Chargers, is working some magic in Philly with that talented Eagles team. He, too, has been interviewed a bunch (seven times in the last four years).
"He's been a football brainiac dating back to his days at Boise," said a head of college scouting. Detroit had Moore doing projects as their third-string QB during his rookie year. "And look what he's done with (Jalen) Hurts. Kellen's gotten him to play cleaner and faster from the pocket, and I bet if you asked those who came before him, they'd tell you that's not always the easiest thing to do with that QB."
Zac Robinson: The second-worst training camp quarterback I've ever seen come through New England (Tim Tebow) yet managed to hang around for several seasons elsewhere. He used to work for Pro Football Focus before transitioning to coaching. Robinson found his calling as an offensive assistant working under Sean McVay and is now the OC in Atlanta. If he keeps evolving, the former Oklahoma State signal caller will be a head coach soon. The Pats interviewed for the OC gig last year.
"(Kirk) Cousins hamstrung him, and you're already seeing what his real vision is now that they've gone to the rookie (Michael Pennix)," said an NFC scout. "It's varied and borrows from a lot of different schemes. I love that a young coach (he's 38) is willing to be flexible like that. It's one of McVay's best traits, too."
Anthony Weaver: Another former player in the league (7 seasons), Weaver was Baltimore's assistant head coach before moving on to be the DC in Miami this year. Without his two best pass rushers (Chubb and Phillips), the Fins have been surprisingly good on that side of the ball. He had second interviews with both the Commanders and Falcons last year.
“He’s great at breaking down tape to a whole defense, as well as units. It helps the players see the vision through the same lens,” said defensive lineman Zach Sieler to the Miami Herald. “The respect he gets from being a player can’t be understated. He understands the daily grind. He gets it.”
Jon Gruden: This name has come up quite a bit recently when I talk to folks around the league, and now Gruden's name is wholly in the circuit, at least when it comes to the media talking about him. The dude has a lawsuit against the league and Roger Goodell. I don't know how that would go over. My buddy Tom Pelissaro believes Gruden could have been the Saints OC this year had he wanted it, but that's a different level to me.
Brian Flores: In other words, Gruden and Flores are in the same camp (lawsuit). His three seasons as the boss in Miami were rife with issues, from ownership to the coaching staff (five play callers in three years) to his treatment of the players. I'm not arguing that he's able to scheme it up defensively. Flores has repeatedly proven that, including his two years as the DC for the 14-2 Vikings. But has he learned, as you would hope? When he held his press conference shortly after Tua Tagovailoa eviscerated him in an interview, two of Flores' players came to the podium to support him.
"Look, I'm human," Flores said in response to Tua's critique. "So that hit me in a way that wasn't ... positive for me. But at the same time, I've got to use that and say, 'Hey, how can I grow from that? How can I be better?' And that's really where I'm at from that standpoint. Do I feel like that's me? No. But how can I grow from that situation and create a world where that's not the case that anyone says that about Brian Flores?"
If he genuinely has grown - and that won't be easy to decipher - his resume is worthy of another shot, but we know how these owners operate.
Kliff Kingsbury: Talk about rewriting your story. Kingsbury washed out in Arizona, partly because he couldn't reach Kyler Murray. But after spending a season at USC, he's back and thriving with Jayden Daniels as his quarterback. One of the knocks on Kingsbury's offense was that teams figured it out in the second half of the year. That hasn't been the case in D.C. During his brief time with the Trojans, Kingsbury made an impression on Bears QB Caleb Williams.
"I know what type of guy he is," Williams said Wednesday. "I know he loves football. I know he wants to win. He's a competitor.
"A man of his word. A discipline coach, meaning whatever his rules are or whatever he's gonna bring rule-wise, how he's going to control the team and manage and control the team, things like that."
Todd Monken: Did excellent work as the playcaller for the University of Georgia and is doing the same in Baltimore for the Ravens. It's possible he could coach Lamar Jackson to MVPs in back-to-back seasons. He also managed to feed Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman while incorporating three new starters on the offensive line. Impressive.
Vance Joseph: His head coaching stint in Denver was poor. 11-21 over two seasons. But his return to the Mile High City as the DC has gone swimmingly well. That unit is damn good.
“The guy’s got tremendous poise,” Broncos offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi told the Denver Post. “Whether things are going great or you’re in a rough patch, man, he’s the same guy. It’s a tough business and when you’ve got someone that’s got that kind of demeanor, who’s the same guy every day, I think that’s a big plus."
Other names being bandied about: Rex Ryan (somebody please make this happen), Chiefs OC Matt Nagy (34-31 as HC in Chicago), Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo, Steelers OC Arthur Smith, Rams DC Chris Shula
PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES
In the AFC, the Chiefs (1), Bills (2), and Texans (4) are locked into their seeds.
The Ravens can clinch the AFC North with a win over the Browns. Their divisional foe, the Steelers, who have already qualified for the playoffs, can clinch the AFC North in Week 18 with 1) a victory over the Bengals (Sat) and a Ravens loss.
The Broncos are still teetering but earn a spot with 1) a win vs. KC or 2) a Bengals loss and a Dolphins loss. Speaking of the Fins, they get in with a win at the Jets and a Broncos defeat.
Finally, Joe Burrow and the Bengals need to beat the Steelers and get losses by the Broncos and Dolphins.
Over in the NFC, only the Eagles are locked and loaded (2-seed). As for what's at stake, a massive game in Detroit between the Lions and Vikings. Whoever wins earns the #1 seed, that first-round bye, and the NFC North title.
The NFC South remains up for grabs. The Buccaneers can win it by beating the Saints on Sunday. The Falcons must handle the Panthers and see New Orleans score the upset.
NERD NUMBERS
- The Patriots have selected #1 overall five times in franchise history - Picked a QB 3 times (1964: Jack Concannon, 1971: Jim Plunkett, 1993: Drew Bledsoe). Others: DE Kenneth Sims (1982) and WR Irving Fryar (1984)
- The Texans have allowed 54 unblocked pressures in 2024, the most in the NFL (per NGS). They have also allowed 117 ‘quick’ pressures (under 2.5 seconds), tied for third-most behind NE and SEA.
- Najee Harris joined Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson as the only players in the last 20 years to have 1,000+ rushing yards in their first 4 NFL seasons.
- The Commanders have won 11 games in a season for the first time since 1991 (went 14-2), snapping what was the NFL’s longest active drought of seasons without 11 wins (32 years). Every other NFL team from 1992-2023 had won 11+ games in a season at least twice.
- Jayden Daniels is the first player in NFL history to have 200+ passing yards, 2+ passing TDs, and 65+ rushing yards in 3 straight games. He did so at NO, vs. PHI, and vs. ATL, all in one-score wins.
- Brian Thomas Jr. leads all rookies in rec yards (1,179) and rec TDs (10) in 2024. He's the 4th rookie in the Super Bowl era to have 1,100+ rec yards & 10+ rec TDs.
- Josh Allen (76) is one win away from tying Joe Ferguson (77) for 2nd most QB wins in BUF history. HOF Jim Kelly (101 career wins) has the most QB Wins in Bills franchise history
- The Buccaneers' +96 point differential since Week 12 leads the NFL and is their best in any 6-game span within a season in franchise history. This is the third time TB has had a point differential of +85 or better. They won the Super Bowl in each of the two previous such seasons.
