This is the part of the job that gets a little two-faced…
I’ve long suggested Walker Buehler as an option — and an option I would like — to address their rotation needs heading into 2025.
Now, I’m going to roast them a little for it…
Breaking: Walker Buehler and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a one-year, $21.05 million contract, sources tell @JeffPassan.
— ESPN (@espn) December 23, 2024
One of the Dodgers’ World Series heroes and a two-time All-Star will join a rebuilt Red Sox rotation. pic.twitter.com/ZTDD8oWRBe
Buehler is fine. Good, even. OK, pretty good. You don’t get to be a multi-time All-Star by being mediocre. In the 30-year-old right-hander, the Red Sox are getting a two-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion — including the man who closed out the rival Yankees to win this year’s World Series.
But he wasn’t the best on the market. He wasn’t even the best available on the market, either. Remaining on the market still is another 30-year-old who happens to be a former Cy Young Award winner with an ERA title and four All-Star appearances to boot.
No, Buehler is no Corbin Burnes. Yet it isn’t all too surprising that John Henry’s team has decided to sign the next best (more like third- or fourth-best, really) option instead of ponying up for the biggest fish in Burnes.
Instead of signing the likes of Blake Snell or Burnes, the Sox are settling for the next tier down — even when starting pitching was far and away their biggest need. It’s a hard sell to suggest that you’re “back” and contending again when you can’t be bothered to pay the best of the best.
Are we really surprised? No, of course not…
Alright, here’s where the criticism shifts to praise…
Buehler is a pretty solid get. Looking at the rotation now, it's shaping up to be Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello and Tanner Houck. That’s not too shabby. Four former All-Stars — including two last season — and another in the making in Bello.
Compared to last season, when all the Sox really did was add Giolito into the fold, that is a marked improvement. For that, Craig Breslow and the front office (and ownership to the extent of allowing them to make some actual moves) deserve credit.
It hasn’t been the “sign Juan Soto, sign Snell or Burnes” offseason we had all hoped for, but it’s been far better than in recent years past — and (potentially, hopefully) far from over.
The pitcher
As for the actual pitcher himself, Buehler sports a career record of 47-22 with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 754 strikeouts in 131 major league outings (including 122 starts) across seven seasons, all with the Dodgers.
At his best, Buehler finished top ten in National League Cy Young voting twice — including fourth as recently as 2021 — in his two All-Star seasons.
In 2019, Buehler went 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP and a career-best 215 strikeouts. In 2021, his second All-Star campaign, Buehler won a personal-best 16 games in compiling a 16-4 record while posting a career-best 2.47 ERA a 0.97 WHIP and 212 punchouts.
His primary pitch is a four-seam fastball, which he throws 29 percent of the time per Baseball Savant. In 2024, his velocity on that pitch averaged out at 95 miles per hour.
Then we have the elephant in the room to discuss: his Tommy John surgery. Actually, make that his two Tommy John surgeries — most recently in August of 2022, causing him to miss the entirety of the 2023 season. Add in a flexor tendon procedure that year too, for good measure…
In just 12 starts before the injury in ’22, Buehler was not at his best while pitching to 4.02 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Since returning, Buehler’s regular season numbers have been pretty rocky. In 2024, he went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. Not the most encouraging numbers in the world…
Come the postseason, Buehler performed better while going 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in four appearances and three starts. He made one start in the World Series, powering L.A. to a 4-2 win and a 3-0 series lead after tossing a respectable five scoreless innings with two hits allowed, two walks and five strikeouts.
The contract
Buehler’s mixed bag of results in recent years is likely what led to the contract he ultimately took and what Boston was willing to pay him: $21.05 million over one year.
That number might ring a bell as it’s the qualifying offer figure throughout baseball for the 2025 season. The Dodgers declined to extend the QO to Buehler, so the Red Sox did it for them.
Essentially, this is a “prove it” deal for Buehler. I’d imagine he received some offers for more years and a greater total amount, but this seems like former multi-time All-Star who will turn 31 next summer betting on himself.
It could turn out to be a decent bet, as a bounce-back season would put him in line for a multi-year deal — a deal that I can already tell you now that Boston probably won’t be interested in offering him.
And from the Sox’s perspective, it fits their MO. A short deal and relatively inconsequential. Clearly, Breslow and the Sox didn’t love Buehler — if they did, they would have signed him to a multi-year deal. And clearly Buehler didn’t love Boston either, because he wasn’t willing to take a discount to be here long-term (nor should he).
On the bright side, this means the Sox opted not to bring back Nick Pivetta. I don’t mean to be ragging on him all the time, as I never had a personal relationship with him. I just didn’t think the guy was the best pitcher and the best pitcher for this market.
I had said his salary was money better spent elsewhere. It turns out, that “elsewhere” will be Walker Buehler’s pockets….
