Dear Robert and Jonathan,
Hope the holiday season is treating you and your families well.
Enough of the pleasantries. Too much to do for all of us, too little time.
I don't know who you are or aren't talking to, and whether they're telling you the truth about the state of your franchise. But I'm here to offer to give you my unbiased opinion about the landscape on the ground with Patriots Nation, and hopefully a cold dose of reality.
To cut to the chase: you guys are on a long losing streak with the fanbase, and you are on the precipice of losing all the goodwill you built up for more than 20 years. The choices you make in the next month will determine whether this franchise ascends back to its rightful place as one of the strongest in the league, or you're going to join the likes of the Jets in terms of utter futility.
That's the reality. Yes, it's that bad. If people aren't telling you this, you need to find some new people to advise you.
This all started when you allowed Bill Belichick to run Tom Brady out of town. You could have stopped it, you could have parted ways with Belichick instead. You didn't, and then Brady went to Tampa Bay and won a Super Bowl in his first season. That crushed many in this fanbase.
Meanwhile, Belichick faded toward the end of his career like he told you Brady would. You both couldn't have been more wrong. Belichick went straight downhill with his choices of assistants, ruined a good asset in Mac Jones, alienated coaches and the quarterback. It ended in a dysfunctional mess. Your instinct was to right an obvious wrong by firing Belichick after the Matt Patricia/Joe Judge debacle. You instead hung on and it only got worse. I hope you heeded that lesson in not admitting a mistake, and continuing on out of loyalty or however you justified that.
There was The Dynasty documentary. I'm sure your heart was in the right place - and I know it would have been done at some point - but I can't tell you how much damage that did to you in the eyes of the fans. They see you as needy of attention and adulation, and some will never forgive you for pillorying Belichick in it.
Along the way, you made the unbelievable choice to put succession language into Jerod Mayo's contract while still under Belichick. Mayo had only been an assistant for five years, and never called a defense. No one has ever ascended to a head coach with such a flimsy resume outside of Jeff Saturday and Antonio Pierce, both former players adored by the owner like Mayo. Even Jason Garrett had more experience when Jerry Jones groomed him to be, ultimately, a mediocre head coach. You'd never put a person in charge of one of your other businesses with so little experience. Why you thought it wise to do it with your crown jewel is beyond me. Mayo wasn't close to getting a head coaching job anywhere else. I'm not sure if he pulled one over on you, but that decision was just flat-out wrong. You should have told him to go find an offer, and then we'll talk. And even if you did think Mayo had great potential as a head coach, why didn't you have him go out and gain valuable experience elsewhere in the league and work with different people who could join his staff when he did ascend? He was a complete neophyte when he took over. He had no idea what he didn't know. The succession language also created a dysfunctional mess on the coaching staff in 2023. That was your doing.
When you fired Belichick, you had an opportunity to conduct an extensive search for the first time in 25 years to make sure your franchise was operating on par with the rest of the NFL. Instead, you just promoted from within with Mayo and Eliot Wolf. Maybe they were the best candidates at the end of the day. How do you know if you don't even look? In the end, you only subtracted Belichick ... and you thought that was going to be the answer? Of the teams that changed coaches in the offseason (Atlanta, Carolina, Seattle, Washington, Tennessee, Chargers, Raiders), only the Patriots, Titans and Raiders have gotten worse or stayed the same. You could have been the Commanders and Chargers, which conducted wide searches for GMs and head coaches. Both combined to have nine more wins over last season with three games left. The fanbase largely couldn't believe you moved on from Belichick without conducting a search and, ultimately, hiring from within. It made zero sense, especially given your history hiring coaches.
So the reality is you and your franchise have been on a steep decline since Brady was allowed to walk out the door. Enthusiasm among fans is at its lowest since before Bill Parcells came aboard and prior to you buying the team. The amazing thing is you have a young, dynamic quarterback in Drake Maye that people want to be excited about. But everything else has declined and there's very little belief things are going to improve under your stewardship. All that goodwill you built up over 20 years is gone. No one is trusting your instincts anymore. The blind faith and belief are gone. I'm sorry that's harsh, but it's just the reality.
And so is this: if you don't make the right choice in the next month, the fans that are casually hanging on are going to tune out in droves. Do you see what's going on with the Red Sox? You're next into irrelevancy if your losing streak continues.
As for what to do next, I'm not going to tell you what to do. You are both extremely smart and have been inside the game of football longer than I've been covering this league. But I am going to offer you advice on how to arrive at these big decisions.
No. 1, this isn't about you. This isn't about your gut, and it's not about loyalty or being proven right. This is solely about what's best for the New England Patriots. If you wind up with the next great Patriots coach, no one is going to care if you have to take a mulligan. 49ers fans don't hold it against Jed York that he fired Jim Harbaugh, had consecutive one-and-dones with Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly before becoming perennial contenders (with two Super Bowl appearances) after arriving at Kyle Shanahan. Eagles fans don't care that Jeffrey Lurie fired Andy Reid, hired and fired Chip Kelly before winning a Super Bowl with Doug Pederson and being perennial contenders. If you fire Mayo after one season, no one is going to care if you arrive at the right choice for the franchise.
No. 2, the price tag can't be an issue. If the issue of buying people out is a consideration of what you decide, you need to sell the team. And that's using your words, Robert. I asked you about spending in 2023, and you told me: "Money spending will never be the issue, I promise you, or I’ll sell the team." Time to back up your words, in terms of spending what you need on coaches, front office and when it comes to player procurement this offseason. It's now or never.
No. 3, use your eyes and ears. You inherited Parcells, and hired Pete Carroll and Belichick. All three have won Super Bowls and will go into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Unlike Mayo (making your decision on him even more puzzling), all three had extensive NFL experience, were highly successful coordinators and were previously head coaches.
You know what it looks and sounds like when your head coach knows what they are doing, has a plan and knows how to get their teams to play at a winning level. Don't overcomplicate this: does Mayo measure up to your previous head coaches? You made the decision to move on from Carroll after three seasons despite two playoff berths, not one losing season and a 27-21 record. Why? You must have thought he didn't have it, that he wasn't going to get there. You were probably right. Carroll probably needed to learn hard lessons at USC before becoming a Hall of Famer in Seattle.
I'm not going to tell you what you should do when it comes to Mayo. You should be seeing what I'm seeing. Name one area where this team has improved or even hinted at improvement. Have you seen him imprint this group positively? Do you see any signs that, given another season, you can see a path to improvement? How has Mayo done with the areas that were in his wheelhouse: defense, media and culture?
Those are the questions you should be asking. Oh, and if you think adding a few people here and there is going to yield improvement, that's a Jetsian line of thinking. That never works in the NFL. Either you need to admit your mistake and blow the whole thing up, or you should stay the course and see this through.
Again, I'm not going to tell you what to do. I'm just here to give you the reality of the situation, and make you aware of the stakes if you make the wrong decision: you will set the franchise back at least five years, possibly damage Maye to the point he needs a Harbaugh to rescue him, plunge the franchise into total irrelevancy and you will have zero goodwill among fans. Yes, it's that bad.
Good luck and godspeed,
Greg A. Bedard
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. I sure hope the Patriots are not entertaining putting a claim in on WR Diontae Johnson, who was waived by the Ravens. Yes, he's talented but he's been a locker-room cancer and ousted by the Steelers, Panthers and Ravens. The Patriots don't need to entertain that type of trouble, especially with a shaky receiver room. Mike Tomlin had enough of him. That's not a good sign.
2. Just to make things clear, Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels are in no way tied to each other going forward, at least at this point. It's believed that Vrabel has a handful of candidates on his potential hires list should he get a job this offseason and that's as far as it's gone. League sources believe McDaniels will have options in the NFL after the season concludes.
3. Some fodder for the belief that Drake Maye was just really good and hasn't needed a ton of development came from QB coach TC McCartney to reporters, via MassLive: “I think his development happened very quickly. We knew he was sharp, but I think he may be the smartest person in this building. He really might be. He’s a super-fast processor. Maybe that has surprised me a little bit - just how quickly he picks things up, understands things.”
4. Sounds like Cole Strange is still a little bit away from making his debut this season. "Cole has definitely battled his way back," Mayo said. "I don't want to say I'm sure, but hopefully we get to see him at some point. Now, we feel good about where we are up front, and that's what we're going to roll out there with."
5. BEDARD'S PICK
Season: 5-7-2 spread, 9-5 straight up.
Line: Bills -14, 46.5 o/u.
The Patriots have no shot of winning this game, outside of an injury to Josh Allen and the Bills having a total letdown after playing the Chiefs, 49ers, Rams and Lions. What I am interested in seeing: how Drake Maye plays in the bitter cold (7 degree real feel during the game) for future knowledge, whether the Patriots can show improvement and play competitively, and if there's any checkout factor. A tough opponent and brutal cold is a recipe for players to quit. That would be a bad sign for Mayo.
Bills 30, Patriots 13.
