Let's just cut to the chase: the Patriots' first-half offensive film against the Cardinals was atrocious. The worst of the season.
After a bye week to rest up and get prepared.
After an extra practice, and another in pads.
We can certainly lob shots — like Jerod Mayo did — at Alex Van Pelt's playcalling in short-yardage situations, and his outright refusal to use Drake Maye's full arsenal of physical weapons (can you imagine if Brian Daboll decided to do the same with Josh Allen?!).
But that wasn't the biggest issue in this game, at least to me.
In reviewing the film, I was struck by two bigger factors:
- The failure to prepare the offense for what they might see from the Cardinals;
- His plan in this game was way too complicated for a challenged group playing on the road.
Both of these are directly under his purview.
The Cardinals entered this game with the second-highest zone coverage rate (75%) in the NFL, just behind the Colts - the Patriots' last opponent. Great news for the Patriots and Maye, as they showed their best offensively against the Rams and Colts, two big zone teams. However, a deeper dive into the film and stats - which was pointed out to me by an NFL assistant coach late in the week - showed that Jonathan Gannon will play a lot more man if he isn't afraid of an opponent's weapons. He did that in Week 1 against Buffalo (39.7%, 6-point loss on the road) and Week 5 at the 49ers (30.2% in a 1-point win).
Van Pelt should have been expecting more man coverage, but he didn't. The Cardinals ended up playing 43% man coverage - by far their highest rate of the season and more than double their season average.
The Patriots were not prepared for that and it showed in their anemic passing game.
New England was obviously not prepared along the offensive line for the Cardinals' variety of alignments. This wasn't the Colts, where you know exactly what you're going to get along the defensive line. The Cardinals were constantly changing gaps, they had overhanging linebackers on the edge often spread way out. Some of the Patriots' linemen didn't know who to block and when, and that comes through practice preparation. They were not properly prepared for this team.
And then Van Pelt exacerbated the issues even more with his blocking decisions in this game.
We all know about the talent issues along the Patriots' offensive line. They basically have backup-level talent at every position outside of Mike Onwenu, who is starting to play like his old self. That happens in the NFL, just about every week. You don't just throw your hands up and toss in the towel, saying you can't block this week. It's on the offensive coordinator and offensive line coach to determine what exactly the linemen at hand can execute. If that means you can't run everything you want to run, then so be it.
Like they say in A Few Good Men, "It’s the difference between paper law and trial law." There’s a difference between what you can execute on the practice field against what you think you’re going to get from the opponent, and what your players can actually execute, especially in a road environment where bad lines will struggle.
Van Pelt basically eschewed the most basic blocking scheme, duo - which they've actually been OK at executing this season - and went almost solely with wide zone and complicated power runs with two pulling blockers from the other side of the formation.
Using those two blocking schemes against an unpredictable front like Arizona's - especially after being off for a week and not being ready for full game speed (another preparation issue) - was a recipe for disaster, which is what we got on Sunday. Basically, they were asking guys like Vederian Lowe, Layden Robinson and Ben Brown to hit a moving target on every play. Is anyone surprised they played their worst collective game of the season?
For example, the big Robinson holding penalty on the first series came out of shotgun wide zone. That was putting a lot of stress on a young, inexperienced player on the road off the bat.
On the second series, the Rhamondre Stevenson -2 run on first down came when they pulled two players and Lowe didn't block down - he was confused by the standup end. This should have been easier. Did they practice against this look? Doesn't look like it.
On the sack, yes, Lowe got beat but it was against shotgun empty with no one in to chip. And Drake Maye got fooled again, like he did on the previous third down, when he changed the play and the Cardinals dropped into a different coverage.
Later on the fourth-down toss play that Stevenson gutted out, both Hunter Henry and Ja'Lynn Polk (no shock) were confused about who to block and didn't really block anyone. Another play that was way too complicated.
There are plays like that all over the first half film. Including this one, where the handoff and blocking made absolutely no sense (someone messed up - would have made sense for Gibson to take an underneath handoff into that huge freaking gape hole to his right).
We know the Patriots are not good on offense, but they aren't that bad, especially on the offensive line, and haven't been that bad this season, all things considered
It's just the offensive coordinator hung them out to dry by using blocking schemes that were way too aggressive on the road and against a more complicated opponent than he anticipated.
A look at the host of issues in the first half as I graded the film:
Here are the positional ratings against the Cardinals:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (4 out of 5)
Drake Maye actually had my highest-graded game, eclipsing the Colts game. He just didn't have much work because of the wider issues on the offense, which we discussed. ... Maye's plus plays were a 3-yard scramble, a throw to Kayshon Boutte against pressure, his dime to Kendrick Bourne, shovel TD to Demario Douglas, and cool-as-a-cucumber TD run against the Cards' all-out blitz. He made it look like kid's work. Loved his reaction to the TD - he just tossed the ball to the ref and jogged off, no celebrating. I think part of it was his disappointment that Van Pelt refuses to design runs like that for him, when this offense needs easy plays like that, especially on third down and in the low red zone. ... His two minus plays: getting duped into a bubble on the first third down that went nowhere, and the overthrow of Boutte on the run. It appeared Maye tried to get a little too cute by trying to execute a near no-look pass, and it screwed up his mechanics. That was UNC Drake. ... But a really nice job by him overall. Every week I'm amazed at how advanced he's playing yet the Patriots get nothing out of it. It's almost impossible (I would blame the coaching overall, which I'm sure you would guess).
Running backs (5 out of 5)
Outstanding game by both backs, especially Antonio Gibson, who is the best they have in this scheme. Had a great blitz pickup that knocked out old friend Mack Wilson, and a nice block to spring Marcus Jones. Plus three big plays in the game. Gibson actually caught one ball off his right hip. Nice hands. ... Rhamondre Stevenson was much better in this game. I think the week off did him good.
Receivers (1 out of 5)
Not much work for this group in this one, and they couldn't get open. Cardinals were the first team to shut down the little spot routes from the tight ends. ... Austin Hooper had a nice run block on an 11-yard gain, and added a 26-yard catch later. ... Ja'Lynn Polk is completely lost. The slow speed in which he runs his routes makes it look like he's running in a different offense. Maye's already made a decision like 3 seconds earlier. Whatever the coaches are telling him is just not getting through. They might have to entertain moving on from him after the season. It's that bad. But only they can assess the root of the issue. It could be Tyler Hughes but I don't know. ... Kayshon Boutte dropped the interception. That pass was not as bad as the Hunter Henry interception. Boutte was too worried about running after the catch. He really needs to stop mouthing off about the playcalling. Worry about yourself and getting better. ... Kendrick Bourne had two good catches, but he also missed a key block on the 3rd and 19 little pass to Demario Douglas. If Bourne was making his block instead of looking to where the ball was, that play had a chance to hit big. Bourne whiffed. ... The Marcus Jones play and the lack of action for Demario Douglas are everything that's wrong with this offense. That was a nifty play - why can't we get 6-10 of those a game, which most going to Douglas? How can Greg Dortch have 4 touches for 66 yards for the Cardinals, but Douglas can't?
Offensive line (1.5 out of 5)
Mike Onwenu was really good (hooray!). Demontrey Jacobs was very solid. Everything else was terrible, and it wasn't just the fault of the players (as we previously laid out). A 40% pressure rate was high but not absurd, but a 33% stuff ran was also subpar.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (2 out of 5)
Minimal impact out of this group, and more poor run fits as a whole. ... Anfernee Jennings was by far the most impactful play (7), but he also blew two edges (one for the Jonah Williams touchdown), had the tough roughing the passer penalty and a blown run gap. ... How does Deatrich Wise celebrate a potential sack without knowing it was a blatant horsecollar penalty? ... Davon Godchaux was mostly stout in the middle, but he got wham blocked badly once. I've never seen that before because he's such a smart player. ... You know things aren't great when Yannick Ngakoue is the highest-graded player with a whole 2 impact plays (half knockdown, half screen).
Linebackers (2.5 out of 5)
Christian Elliss was really good in this game with his take down of Kyler Murray on a third-down scramble, and a pass tackle near the goal line. ... Jahlani Tavai missed three tackles and struggled. ... Sione Takitaki looked like a smart pickup in the offseason but he has not been good for the Patriots. Didn't fill quick enough on one of the TD plunges, and gave up the edge for 17 yards.
Secondary (2 out of 5)
Christian Gonzalez was awesome in this game, we could all see that. Marvin Harrison wasn't ready for him. ... Kyle Dugger was terrible again. Combined with Jabrill Peppers to allow the 53-yard run, missed two big tackles for a total of 56 yards, allowed three easy third-down catches - including another where his eyes were in the wrong place again. He also wasn't in the right gap on the other TD plunge. I'm sure he's playing hurt, but this has been really bad. Dugger is a -24.3 for me in the last four games. ... Everything else was meh.
THREE UP
CB Christian Gonzalez: A Pro Bowl performance. Sorry, he's nowhere near an All-Pro level this season. But he could be next year.
RB Antonio Gibson: A superb all-around game from him. Did everything.
QB Drake Maye: If only the OC used him to his full capabilities.
THREE DOWN
LT Vederian Lowe: Was a minus-10 with 5 total QB pressures and 4.5 stuffed runs!
S Kyle Dugger: He's struggled at times, but never like this.
C Ben Brown: By far his worst game of the season. It makes you wonder how much they practiced this week. He is not that bad of a player. Could have opened the door for the Cole Strange experiment (hold onto your butts).