With Garret Crochet in the fold and Juan Soto off the table, the Boston Red Sox aren’t that far away from completing a respectable to solid offseason.
In my estimation, this team needs only three more major pieces to put themselves in position to achieve their goals of contending next season.
(Now, “contending” is a vague term. In this instance, they would be “contending” in the American League. Ideally, you should be trying to contend for a World Series. With the roster the Dodgers have built and the remaining available players, you would pretty much have to scoop up every big-name free agent left to have a chance — and even then you wouldn’t be the favorites. We all know that is highly unlikely, so that is a factor in my thinking…)
What are those pieces, exactly? Another All-Star caliber starting pitcher, a power-hitting right-handed bat and another late-inning reliever.
Corbin Burnes remains the big prize on the offseason starter market, and while signing the former Cy Young Award winner and four-time All-Star would certainly check off that box, it doesn’t feel particularly likely.
Part of the reason, in my view, that the Sox weren’t willing to match the Yankees in bringing in Max Fried is that they knew acquiring Crochet would be a more cost-effective option (for now, more on that below…).
Now that they have Crochet in the fold, I feel it’s more likely that the Sox would target someone like latest Japanese pitching sensation Roki Sasaki instead. While the Red Sox certainly believe that bringing in Crochet and a few more pieces will help get them closer to where they want to be, I’d imagine that if you gave Craig Breslow and members of the front office truth serum they would tell you they’re still not true contenders yet.
That’s why signing a 23-year-old Sasaki to pair with a 25-year-old Crochet would make more sense as the team knows that its young core still needs a little more seasoning. Yes, bringing in a 30-year-old Burnes would certainly expedite that process, but I like the idea of bringing in a couple of younger (but not too young) ace-type pitchers to continue to team build with.
Should they lose out on Burnes and Sasaki, then signing a Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea or Walker Buehler would also suffice in my book. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are also options, but file them as “break glass in case of emergency” types for me as both are over 40 years of age.
Trading for Luis Castillo could also be on the table, too (more on that later, as well)…
As for that right-handed power bat, we know all the names by now. Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Teoscar Hernandez among them. Some have suggested Bregman is ruled out since Breslow is committing to Rafael Devers at third base next season, but you could always plug Bregman in at DH or move him to first if you wanted. A trade for a hitter with upside in their mid-20s that isn’t on our radar yet would also be an acceptable way of getting that done.
Then you have the bullpen, which was bolstered by the signing of Aroldis Chapman. Character questions aside, I expect Chapman can continue to be a capable (was going to say “dependable,” but that’s more a matter of character and commitment and I’m not comfortable guaranteeing that at this point…) back-end option as he’s posted solid results the past couple of season.
But you ideally need another high-leverage setup guy. Garrett Whitlock, Liam Hendriks and Justin Slaten are all coming off injured years, and while you might be able to get that type of pitcher in any of the three, you really need to make sure you have enough options in the bullpen. Signing another starter would help because that would kick someone like Kutter Crawford back to the ‘pen.
As far as available options are concerned, I’d like to see them go after A.J. Minter, Kendall Graveman, Carlos Estevez, Kenyan Middleton, perhaps even a Paul Sewald type. There are a lot of decent options out there, yet I would focus on someone in the 30-33 age range.
If the Sox can come away with solid options in these three categories, that would be enough for me to give them a passing grade on the offseason.
Crochet-ing some moneybags
Crochet admitted it was a “big relief” to have all the trade rumors behind him and now be able to move ahead as a member of the Red Sox.
His future in Boston, though, is not exactly set in stone…
The 25-year-old southpaw claims the thought of signing an extension with his new team hasn’t crossed his mind since the trade despite his free agency looming in 2027.
“I really haven’t had much time to give it a lot of thought,” Crochet said in his introductory presser with reporters, adding that “this time of year the main thing that I’m focused on is my training and getting ready for spring training. So, until I’m told otherwise, that’s going to be my main focus.”
I highly doubt the Sox would trade for Crochet without the intent of extending him, especially after giving up a member of the “Big 3” and another top-five prospect in the process.
It could benefit the team to try to get a deal done now with the young left-hander. If John Henry and Breslow wait, the Sox are running the risk that Crochet could enter free agency as the top pitcher on the market commanding a larger salary.
With MassLive.com reporting it would take something in the range of a $25 to $30 million average annual value to get a long-term deal done, I would consider putting a seven-year offer for $200 million (a $28.57 million AAV) on the table. Given that a comparable starter in Fried just went for $218 million over seven years, I doubt that Crochet would consider anything less than $200 million.
Of course, it could also benefit the team to wait another year to see how Crochet progresses and if he adapts well to pitching in the Boston market. Knowing Henry’s hesitancy to extend players in general, this will likely wind up being the most realistic outcome. It certainly comes at a risk, but hey, that’s just the business of baseball…
Castillo to Boston?
Adding Crochet was a start. Bringing in a three-time All-Star fireballer like Luis Castillo? That would be a certified haul.
And apparently, it’s a real possibility.
Boston has engaged in “advanced conversations” with the Seattle Mariners about their newly-turned 32-year-old right-handed ace, according to reporting by the Boston Globe. Per their report, the talks have moved as far as Seattle checking in with Castillo about waiving his no-trade clause.
Castillo isn’t considered one of the top pitchers in baseball, but he’s certainly among the better ones. You don’t luck into three All-Star appearances, after all. His career 3.56 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 1,331 strikeouts are indicative of that. Although nearing a decade in the league, Castillo remains a solid starter after pitching to a 3.64 ERA and punching out 175 one season ago.
Of course, there’s the matter of what would be going back in the trade. Triston Casas’ name has come up a lot in public chatter on that front. I’ve made my feelings clear that I’d prefer to keep Casas to see if he continues to take the next steps. A plus to trading Casas, though, would be that it would free up a spot for Boston to pursue one of the aforementioned big bats. Perhaps this is where Boston might need to part with Wilyer Abreu, as well.
You have to give to get, and perhaps Breslow can pull another rabbit out of his hat like he did by acquiring Crochet without giving up and major league talent…
What’s the plan at catcher?
Once more of a certainty, the Red Sox now have a big question mark when it comes to the future of their catching position. With the decision to part with one of their top prospects in Kyle Teel in the Crochet deal, Boston is now left without a longterm backstop plan.
The Sox will almost certainly enter next season with Connor Wong as their No. 1 catcher. The 28-year-old has proven to be a dependable option behind the plate, but one I still believe is best served as part of a platoon.
Now, Boston countered its trade of Teel in part by acquiring 26-year-old backup catcher Carlos Narvaez in a trade with the Yankees this week. Narvaez has only sniffed the majors after playing only six games with New York last season, going 3 for 13 with a pair of walks and six strikeouts.
So we certainly don’t know if Narvaez is capable of being a reliable platoon option with Wong, who was shown he can swing a more than serviceable bat. But in today’s game, if you’ve got talent throughout the rest of your lineup, you’re generally OK with an offensive black hole at the catcher spot.
Looking elsewhere in the Sox’s minor league system, Boston has Johanfran Garcia and Brooks Brannon down on the farm. Garcia is the team’s 17th-ranked prospect and Brannon is No. 23 according to MLB.com's rankings.
Both catchers are projected to be major league-ready by 2027. Brannon was Boston’s ninth-round pick in the 2022 amateur draft. Garcia, meanwhile, has shown promise swinging the bat with a .286 average in three minor league seasons. Brannon has hit .257 in his minor-league career.
Only time will tell if either — or neither — could be the answer in Teel’s stead.