Four games remain in the Patriots' season. There may be no playoff appearance in their future, but there remains plenty to play for. Having already written about Jerod Mayo this week, I'm excluding him from this next exercise, where I have determined the five men with the most at stake and most to prove, starting in Arizona on Sunday and ending the first weekend of January against the Bills (day and time have yet to be determined).
1.DeMarcus Covington — The Patriots defensive coordinator has endured a rocky first season as Jerod Mayo's handpicked choice to continue the team's strong tradition on that side of the ball. Sure, he had to deal with the losses of some key players in September and October, but in no way, shape, or form should this defense be 31st in DVOA (31st against the pass, 28th vs. the run) after being 9th a year ago.
“We’re struggling in different areas, and I think we’re looking to get better at, you know, throughout the season on those things," said Covington. "I wouldn’t say that it’s one thing, one thing here, one thing there. I think it’s been different challenges throughout the year, at different parts of the year, and different areas. So I don’t think it’s one thing. I do think we have improved in certain areas, and then we’ve improved some areas, and one week it goes off.
“So, to me, that leads back to being consistent in all areas. That’s what you want to be; you want to be consistent in all areas and good in all areas. That’s really the goal on whatever you do, and knowing there’s going to be ups and downs throughout as you’re on your pursuit to be consistent, but make sure you finish out on top more.”
That was a massive word salad that answered very little, and his entire press conference was either a) defensive or b) tone-deaf (both?). To me, it felt like Covington was feeling the heat. He's got 9 of the 11 starters from last year back. No more excuses. If he doesn't turn this around, Covington needs a former DC to help run the unit next year, or he needs to go.
2. Ja'Lynn Polk - I wrote about him in last week's notebook. Most of you have determined he's already a bust. I'm not there yet, but history is not kind to rookie wideouts who don't pop quickly. Kayshon Boutte would have been cut by most franchises after his rookie year, but now he rarely comes off the field. That I don't think he's more than a #4 is neither here nor there. Can Polk author a similar turnaround? He's a second-round pick (Boutte was a 6th rounder), so you know he has a longer leash than most. But his first season has been an abject disaster and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt told us Thursday that Polk's drops earlier in the year "set him back a little bit mentally."
3. Caedan Wallace - It's unrealistic to believe the rookie right tackle with just 70 pro snaps under his belt can miss two months and look like a better player when he finally gets game action (Mayo said it's unlikely Wallace plays Sunday). But as another high pick (3rd rounder, 68th overall) of first-year GM Eliot Wolf, Wallace showing that you can count on him as the starter next season - or at least feel comfortable that he's your swing tackle - would undoubtedly free the Pats brass to have even more flexibility in free agency and the draft. Before he got hurt, Wallace was primarily used as a muscle-tight end, and his start against the Jets in week three went poorly.
4. Marte Mapu - He was a healthy scratch the last time the Pats were in action (vs. the Colts). A third-round pick who can't get on the field when Mayo has repeatedly talked about the need to find out about these young players is damning. Bill Belichick liked to select these niche players, but with him no longer in the building, Mapu has been a lost soul wandering around, with no one totally sure where he fits best or if he fits at all.
5. Alex Austin - There have been flashes from Buffalo's 2023 7th-round pick, both at the end of last season for the Pats and again two Sundays ago vs. the Colts. That he, too, lost two months to injury is a tough break. Still, cornerback coach Mike Pellegrino is a fan of Austin's game, and if he can deliver a consistently good four weeks, Wolf and company might be able to scratch off another position of need as they head into the off-season (Austin at one corner, Christian Gonzalez at the other, and Marcus Jones in the slot. Throw in rookie Marcellas Dial, sign up for another year of Jonathan Jones, and draft a corner somewhere on day three of the draft).
DREAM ON?
Does Joe Burrow know something we don't? The season-long assumption is this is the last roundup for the explosive trio Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Burrow. Chase is extension-eligible, and Higgins is playing on the franchise tag and would seem to have priced himself out of Cincinnati.
But after the Bengals' 27-20 win over the Cowboys Monday night, Burrow dropped this nugget about Higgins' future.
"We don't know; those discussions are ongoing," he said. "I am confident we are going to be able to do what it takes to bring Tee back — that I'm going to do what it takes to get him back, and so is he. We've had those talks. Those are going to be offseason discussions, but I think we are excited about that opportunity."
Wait, what? How is that possible? Are the notoriously cheap Bengals going to pay both Higgins and Chase after backing up the Brinks truck for Burrow (his salary jumps from $29.5 million this year to $46 million next)? That can't be, can it?
"We'll see," added Burrow with a cat that ate the canary look on his face.
The reporters immediately ran to Higgins with this information, looking for clarity. He didn't provide much, “Things never changed. I never ruled it out. Media can persuade things the way they want to persuade things. We’ll see.”
Based on the going price for #1 receivers, or something close to that - Calvin Ridley got $50 million guaranteed at the age of 30 last off-season - Higgins, who will turn 26 years old next season, is next in line to get overpaid. His list of suitors will be lengthy. Aside from the Patriots, who have the most cap space heading into next year, the Cardinals (3rd), Commanders (4th), Chargers (7th), and Broncos (10th) are all almost certain to be in the Higgins market. So look for a contract that should at least equal what Brandon Aiyuk got from San Francisco just a few months ago (4 years, $120 million, $76 million guaranteed). When you consider that Chase is in line to at least match Justin Jefferson's $110 million guaranteed, I can't see Cincy retaining his services unless Higgins does it because he's willing to take less, much less. However, the player has changed agents. He is no longer represented by David Mulugheta - no friend of the Bengals - so you're saying there's a chance?
“It’s possible,” said Chase. “It’s 100 percent possible. Got to play chess in that situation, but it’s possible.”
Perhaps, but more than likely, this was Burrow's way of sending a message to owner Mike Brown and GM Duke Tobin, making sure, at the very least, they understand where his head's at and how best to keep their most important piece - him - happy. And that, at the very least, means making sure his longtime teammate and friend, Chase - they played together at LSU - is happy and well compensated.
"We feed off each other," said Burrow. "We make each other better. He’s a really smart player. It’s tough to take that away when you have a really smart receiver like that, that you can move around and do a lot of different things with. Hopefully, we can play together for as long as we are in this league together.”
Did you hear that, Mr. Brown?
ON THE WAY OUT?
As of this writing, the 49ers still have a playoff heartbeat - be it ever so faint. But this NFC power is soon to face a series of business decisions involving its aging roster and a damn good quarterback, but maybe not $50-$55 million good.
Deebo Samuel is one of the players likely impacted by the coming change that GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan need to shepherd the organization through. So you can understand why, in this trying year, the playmaking wideout/running back/returner is frustrated with his situation. That said, taking those feelings to social media isn't the wisest choice, but Samuel did that and then deleted it. But the internet is forever.
“Not struggling at all just not getting the ball!!!!!!!” read the tweet.
The veteran confirmed his feelings when the media followed up with him this week.
“I mean, you read what you read. (I’m) a little frustrated for sure.”
The 28-year-old has another year left on his contract and three more void years tacked on after that. However, the 49ers have an out after this season, and considering their financial plight - especially if they pay Brock Purdy - Samuel is a logical cap casualty or trade candidate.
The trade aspect is complicated because Samuel has a $15.4 million option bonus due March 10th. He could agree to push that date to facilitate a trade, but a release with a post-June 1 designation allows San Fran to spread the remaining cap hit over two years, a more likely scenario.
Samuel isn't the only one who could find himself searching for a new home. Left tackle Trent Williams just got a new deal, but fellow vets George Kittle, Fred Warner, and Javon Hargrave could be on the chopping block as the 49ers look to go from one five-year run of success (two Super Bowl trips, two NFC title game losses) to what they hope is the next.
BROTHERLY LOVE MISSING IN PHILLY?
Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are insisting they are on good terms despite a suggestion otherwise made by teammate Brandon Graham.
On injured reserve with torn triceps, Graham appeared on his weekly radio show Monday and dropped what went over like a bomb, saying, "They were friends before this, but things have changed, and I understand that because life happens. But it's the business side that we have to make sure the personal doesn't get in the way of the business."
Graham was reacting to a terse response by the Eagles star receiver after Sunday's win, the team's 9th straight. Brown was asked what needed to improve offensively and said simply, "Passing." Considering Brown's emotional outbursts in the past, conclusions were drawn. Graham tried to put the cat back in the bag a short time later, but this was a full five-alarm fire.
"BG was just being BG," said Brown. "He's emotional. In that case, he just misspoke. Me and Jalen are good."
He added, "I think that's what the world did. They perceived what I said about passing and felt like it was an attack on Jalen, and that's what [Graham] did. Me and Jalen's relationship is personal."
“We’re good, we’re good," Hurts said. “B.G.[Graham] knows he spoke out of place, and he knows that.
“Sometimes things as dynamics change, but, for him, he [A.J. Brown] knows I have a lot of love for him, just like I’ve got a lot of love for all these guys. Ultimately, he’s a guy that’s a competitor. He wants to win. He damn sure wants the ball, and he wants to make an impact in the game. And I respect that. That’s just like all of us.”
Hurts threw the ball just 21 times in that win over the Panthers, completing 14 for 108 yards. Brown wasn't targeted until the second quarter, and at one point, he slammed his helmet down on the turf after a three-and-out. He had reason to be mad. He was open a lot and Hurts either didn't see him or didn't pull the trigger.
Before their game last year (season opener), Pats players were complimentary of Hurts publicly, but privately, thought he wasn't someone who could beat them playing quarterback from the pocket. While they lost the game, I'd argue they were on to something.
The Eagles, who sit at 11-2 and still have a shot at the one-seed in the NFC, host the Steelers on Sunday.
NERD NUMBERS
- Drake Maye is the 5th QB since 1950 with 1,500+ pass yards, 10+ pass TDs, and 300+ rush yards through his first 8 career starts. Hurts, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, and Daunte Culpepper are the others.
- Jakobi Meyers became 1 of only 5 undrafted players in NFL history to hit 700 receiving yards in 5 of their first 6 seasons. The others are Antonio Gates, Drew Pearson, Gary Clark, and Rob Moore. Meyers also has gone the entire season without a drop.
- The Panthers are guaranteed their 7th straight season with 7 or fewer wins. That's the longest such streak in franchise history and T-2nd-longest active streak in the NFL. The Jets are tops (or bottom) with 9, and the Falcons have 7.
- The Chiefs have a -4 TO margin despite being tied for the NFL's best record at 12-1. That's the 2nd-worst TO margin since 1940 by a team to start 12-1 or better. Only the 1976 Raiders had a worse TO margin at -6 (they won the Super Bowl).
- Derrick Henry is 2nd in the NFL with 1,407 rush yards and T-1st with 13 rush TD in 2024. With 93 more rush yds, Henry will reach his 4th career season with 1,500+ rush yds. Barry Sanders (5), Walter Payton, Eric Dickerson, and Edgerrin James (4 each) are the only players in NFL history with 4+ career seasons with 1,500+ rush yards.
- The Lions' Jared Goff has thrown all 10 of his INTs against zone coverage in 2024 (Next Gen Stats). His opponent this weekend, the Bills, play zone nearly 78% of the time (5th-highest in NFL, Next Gen Stats).
