Make no mistake, the Krafts expected a little bit of a bump this season with Bill Belichick departing and Jerod Mayo taking over. They really thought, and most inside the building agreed, that if the Patriots stayed the same on defense, got better quarterback play, turned the ball over less, had a better field goal kicker, and Mayo got the players to buy into his vision for the football team and created a better environment, the Patriots would take a step forward this season and be on their way to true competitiveness in 2025.
It has not worked out that way. The Patriots have the same record as last year, and could be headed for 3-14 — the team's worst record since Dick MacPherson in 1992 — with a tough closing stretch to the season.
Is Mayo assured of returning for the 2025 season? Mayo himself sidestepped the question with WEEI on Monday.
“You know that you signed up for this, so you know that there’s speculation left and right about all this stuff,” said host Greg Hill. “Has Robert [Kraft] told you that you’re back again next year?”
“My main focus has just been really getting this team ready to play this week,” Mayo said.
“So he has not told you, or has told you that you’re back next year?” asked Hill.
“No no - I’m not gonna get into all of that stuff,” Mayo answered. “Look, here I go again dancing a little bit. But look, my focus is on the guys in this room, the coaches on this staff, and running this game that we have coming up.”
The chances are likely that he returns, but there are organizational sources who believe Mayo needs to keep the team competitive in the final four games.
"If they get blown out in all four games, I think all options are on the table," said one source.
The reasons why that would be the case are obvious. Many of the reasons to believe in a 2024 bump have come to fruition. They have received better QB play this season from Jacoby Brissett (at least in the turnover department) and, especially, Drake Maye (Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe in 2023 was a pretty low bar). They've turned the ball over less. Kicker Joey Slye, for the most part, has been much better than Chad Ryland.
Yet in just about every measure, the Patriots are worse than the 2023 version, despite playing the league's easiest schedule by DVOA (they played the 11th-most difficult schedule in Belichick's final season).
How can that possibly be? Two areas that fall under Mayo's direct purview: coaching/game management and defense. Look at the DVOA comparison between last year's team and this year (I prefer DVOA over raw numbers because it factors in the opponent, and compares results to the league average) before Sunday's games:
The Patriots have only improved in special teams and pass offense (by two spots right now). The rest of the team has backslid. The most distressing part is the defense, which endured plenty of injuries last year (especially at cornerback) and still finished in the top 10. For a defensive head coach, who helped direct the unit last season, to see his defense tumble from 9th to 31st (against the easiest schedule) is flat-out embarrassing. If you're weighing what kind of head coach Mayo might be, if he can't get his side of the ball to play better (and, in fact, regress badly) what hope should you have that he can lift up the rest of the team? And, of course, there are the multiple game management issues from Mayo that have cost the Patriots in winnable games against the Seahawks, Dolphins (QB Tyler Huntley), Jaguars, Titans (Mason Rudolph), Rams and Colts.
Mayo would tell you he just needs some offseason study and it will be OK.
“I still have a lot to learn as the head coach of this football team. And I understand that. It’s a very different role,” Mayo told Tom Curran in a sitdown.
“In saying that — and I tell the players the same thing — the biggest jump that you’ll ever have in your career is from Year 1 to Year 2 as far as becoming a better player, a better professional. I’m sure 100 percent that I will be a better coach in Year 2 than I am in Year 1.”
I'm not sure I've ever heard an NFL rookie head coach talk about his potential in Year 2, before Year 1 is even over.
Are you willing to wager Maye's foundational years — and cheapest — on Mayo's self-perceived potential? Are the Krafts? I'm not so sure, which makes the final four games so important. Mayo may need to show some signs of progress down the stretch. It doesn't have to be Dan Campbell's 3-3 record to close his rookie season. But four tight games against Arizona (13th DVOA), Buffalo (4th) and the Chargers (9th) would be an achievement.
The Raiders, who have lost nine straight and are 2-11, could move on from first-year coach Antonio Pierce — like Mayo a former linebacker for the team he coaches — after this season. If he hangs on to his job, it could be because of two close losses to the 1-loss Chiefs. Mayo has a chance to do that with two matchups with the Bills in the final month.
Carolina's rookie coach, Dave Canales, started 1-7 with a rebuild similar to the Patriots and appeared to be on the way out, but he has the Panthers on the upswing with two wins in the last five games and the losses featured the Panthers going toe to toe with division leaders Chiefs (12-1), Bucs (8-7) and Eagles (11-2). Mayo doesn't have any stretches like that, at least since Week 2. The Patriots' wins came against teams with a combined record of 11-27.
In Belichick's final season, the Patriots' strength of victory was .529 (36 combined wins), and strength of schedule was .522 (151 wins). Strength of victory for Mayo is .289 (11), and the strength of schedule is .399 (67).
If the Patriots (-86 point differential) lose their final four games by an average of 11 points, they would equal last season's -130. If the Patriots fall by an average of 18 points, it would equal the -158 in MacPherson's final 2-14 season before Parcells was hired. Hence, the blowout factor.
According to multiple sources, if Kraft comes to the realization he made the wrong choice with Mayo, he wouldn't hesitate to rectify the situation. That Kraft's ego and/or proving his gut decision on Mayo was correct would prevent Kraft from moving on after one season is false, according to team sources. Has it gotten to that point? No, but it could by the end of the season.
What exactly would be the case for retaining Mayo? What has he done right? What progress has the team shown? Who has gotten better this season? About the only thing you can point to, aside from special teams, is Maye. Does Mayo get any credit for that? Does even Alex Van Pelt? Maybe Maye is just that good. Anthony Lynn didn't get credit for Justin Herbert as Lynn was fired after going 7-9 in Herbert's rookie season. The Krafts have to be on high alert that Mayo isn't to Maye what Brandon Staley was to Herbert — a waste of his cheapest contract years. Some will argue for Mayo that the players continuing to play for him is a positive for him. Not many teams quit on a first-year head coach, especially one who was on staff and a former player.
Here's a list of the one-and-dones since 2011, and their final season record:
Hue Jackson, Las Vegas Raiders, 2011 - 8-8
Mike Mularkey, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2012 - 2-14
Rob Chudzinkski, Cleveland Browns, 2013 - 4-12
Jim Tomsula, San Francisco 49ers, 2015 - 5-11 (6-11 total)
Chip Kelly, San Francisco 49ers, 2016 - 2-14
Steve Wilks, Arizona Cardinals, 2018 - 3-13
Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns, 2019 - 6-10
Urban Meyer, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2021 - 2-11
David Culley, Houston Texans, 2021 - 4-13
Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos, 2022 - 4-11
Lovie Smith, Houston Texans, 2022 - 3-13-1
Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers, 2023 - 1-10
Are we sure Mayo has a better future than the names on that list? Are the Krafts?
Doubt about Mayo's staying power didn't just come on in the past few weeks. During the offseason, ownership had some concerns that Mayo was in over his head, and not focused on the right things to build a football program. You have to remember, the Krafts inherited Bill Parcells, hired Pete Carroll and Belichick. All three of those coaches are going to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. All of them had previously been head coaches, and had many years as coordinators. Mayo had none of that experience, and it is showing — and has been showing for a while. The Krafts know what a successful head coach looks like. Would it be a shock if they felt Mayo isn't measuring up, and another year isn't really going to help?
The Krafts were alarmed when the team was 1-6, which is the time ownership started to have communications around the league. It wasn't just about how to support a rookie quarterback, as it was reported. The conversations were also about how to support Mayo better going forward (which is the preference), and if that was even possible. They also did some research on Mayo's final years on the staff to get a better sense of his role in the demise of the team. They began to understand why Mayo rubbed some people the wrong way, including Mayo's perceived disrespect of Belichick and Bill O'Brien. Multiple sources said Mayo was harsh about the offense in staff meetings while expressing that his side of the ball was fine. The Patriots named Mayo head coach on Jan. 16. Two days later, O'Brien agreed to become the offensive coordinator at Ohio State (before the Boston College job opened up).
The Krafts are no dummies. Their eyes are wide open and they realize what they have in Maye. With a young talented QB, a likely top 3 pick, $117 million in effective cap space, a new building to house football operations and well-respected ownership, the Patriots would be the most attractive job if it was open - by far.
Are they going to be content with Mayo, that he just needs to grow into the job? Some around the team have their doubts. Maybe they're coming to the realization that this was not a well-thought-out succession plan. If the Krafts were hiring for one of their companies, would they ever hire a CEO (Mayo), President (Eliot Wolf), COO (Van Pelt) and CFO (DeMarcus Covington) who had never done those jobs before? Promoting Mayo from being an assistant for five years to head coach is akin to promoting a sales supervisor to run the company. At least with Wolf you could make the argument he had been the No. 2 in two others stops previously, so he was just waiting for his chance. None of the other three are close to that level of experience. That's not to say Wolf is safe either.
The Krafts have a huge role in Mayo's underwhelming first season. If they knew five years ago they wanted Mayo to succeed Belichick at some point, they should have hatched a plan with Mayo to go out into the league as a defensive coordinator to develop and to expose himself to other coaches and offenses to be ready for the time when Belichick would be done. Mayo was never going to develop under the very guarded Belichick, and we're seeing that lack of development now.
Their preference is to better support Mayo. But can that truly happen? Who is coming to work for a head coach who would enter 2025 on the hotseat? Do they change offensive systems for Maye's second season when another poor season could lead to a complete regime change for his third season? You can't just bring in an experienced defensive coordinator over Covington — like, say, a Robert Saleh or Matt Eberflus — because they run completely different schemes and Mayo would have to cede even more control on that side of the ball. To say nothing of the fact that any coaches who check with BelichickWorld will not get a flattering review of Mayo. Coach agents also know the OC interview process did not go well from the perspective of at least some candidates last year.
The Krafts have this information now. Again, depending on how the final four games go, their only real alternatives could be to start over completely from scratch at all levels with the wide-open searches they foolishly never did, or retain everyone and hope to augment with some former staffers who like Mayo or need the job (like former Patriots DB coach and Dolphins defensive coordinator Josh Boyer).
The Mike Vrabel factor can't be discounted either. He was available last year, and the Krafts stuck with Mayo's succession. Fortunately, Vrabel's still available. Will the Krafts pass on him again, and risk losing him to the Jets? Or will they realize Vrabel is exactly like their previous successful coaches, and both of their hires (Carroll, Belichick) and go back to their tried and true formula? Kraft said he went with his gut on Mayo. With Vrabel staring him in the face, what does Kraft's gut tell him about choosing Mayo — after seeing him operate for a year — over Vrabel this time around?
As of today, I would say the odds are strong that everyone is retained and they try to add some more experienced hands and swap out some positional coaches. But the final four games will have an impact, one way or the other. If the Patriots conclude the season losing their final seven games and some are lopsided, anything could be possible.
Either way, I hope I'm not writing this same column next year. That would be a disaster for the Patriots and, especially, for Maye.