Jerod Mayo and Alex Van Pelt insist that Ja'Lynn Polk will be a good player for the Patriots. As a proponent of his selection, I'm not ready to throw dirt on the second-round rookie, but recent history tells us that if Polk doesn't take a strong step forward in the final four games, this might be another personnel misstep by this organization at the position.
I went back over the last 10 drafts, looking at players drafted anywhere from 20th overall through the second round. I did this because you naturally assume if a player goes top half of round one, there's an excellent chance of success (and there was). I used the end of round two as the cutoff because teams generally have a broader variance on players once you get out of that top grouping. And with only a few exceptions, if that player didn't pop as a rook, he didn't pop, period.
Here's the list:
2015: Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, Philip Dorsett, Devin Smith, Dorial Green-Beckham.
2016: Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd.
2017: Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel, Juju Smith-Schuster
2018: D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, Dante Pettis, Christian Kirk, Anthony Miller, James Washington, D.J. Chark
2019: Hollywood Brown, N'Keal Harry, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mecole Hardman, J.J. Arceaga-Whiteside, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella, D.K. Metcalf.
2020: Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Laviska Shenault, K.J. Hamler, Chase Claypool, Van Jefferson, Denzel Mims.
2021: Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Dwayne Eskridge, Tutu Atwell, Terrace Marshall.
2022: Christian Watson, Wan'dale Robinson, John Metchie, Tyquan Thornton, George Pickens, Alec Pierce, Skyy Moore.
2023: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Jon Mingo, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Marvin Mims.
2024: Brian Thomas, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, Ja'Lynn Polk, Adonai Mitchell.
Of this collection, the only players having found their way after a tough start were Nelson Agholor (23 catches as a rookie), Curtis Samuel (15), D.J. Chark (14), and Wan'dale Robinson (23). And of that quartet, none became stars (the jury's still out on Robinson's ceiling).
Conversely, precious few cratered after early success, and the reasons have run from injury to idiocy. Chicago's Anthony Miller had 33, 52, and 49 catches in his first three seasons and is now a practice squadder in Baltimore. Mecole Hardman entered a great spot with KC, had 26, 41, and 59 grabs, but since has become nothing more than a break glass in case of emergency player. Jalen Reagor had 31 and 33 catches his first two seasons in Philly, then thought he was a Bugatti and has been on more teams than I care to recall. Jahan Dotson had 49 receptions in year two but was traded from Washington to Philly during training camp. The Commanders knew something. Dotson has 11 catches this year.
Polk has been one better than Dotson. He's had 12 catches in 12 games for 87 yards and two touchdowns. But he's seen just five in the last five games and has caught two for 7 yards, one of which was a WR screen. I approached Polk Tuesday, just before the Pats' players exited for the week. He was a popular man that day. Four reporters spoke to him individually before he headed back home.
"Y'all asking a lot of questions about my confidence right now," he told me. "Are y'all questioning my confidence or something?"
Questioning? No. More like wondering. I'd asked him why we hadn't seen the player we saw this summer in the regular season.
"It's a matter of time; it could be this year. You know, who knows? It could be next year," he said. "I can't put no time on it. Like I say, 'Man, I just control what I can control.' And just continue to work hard each and every day and just be ready."
The Polk on display this summer looked like he'd been in the league for four or five years. He was precise with his routes and attacked the football when it was in the air. Yes, his lack of top-end speed showed as camp wore on, and that concerned me, but I figured — and more importantly, so did the Pats — that he would be a solid player for them from the jump. But instead of growing from his early season experiences, Polk seems stuck in the muck, repeating errors and - sorry, Ja'Lynn - not playing confidently.
"I know I'm gonna have a great story," he said as we chatted. "So, I've had a great story. Like I said in camp before, I'm only here to prove (myself) to those who believe in me, right? It was a lot of belief at first, and that kind of faded away these past couple of weeks.
"It's all good because it's a part of my story. It's my journey. I trust my journey, and as bad as I want it to be different, you know, up to this point, it doesn't always work out that way. So, just continue to work hard, knowing it will be better. It's going to be great."
After years (decade+?) of swinging and missing at the position — see Thornton, Tyquan, Harry, N'Keal — GM Eliot Wolf, Mayo, and company can only hope that Polk's prediction comes true. History will undoubtedly argue against it.
CHANGES COMING IN CINCY?
Despite another offensive explosion, the Bengals lost again, falling 44-38 to the Steelers. They are now 0-7 against teams .500 or better this season and give up an average of 36.4 PPG in those losses. Considering where this team was defensively in 2021 and 2022, it's a mighty hard fall for Cincinnati and its well-respected defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo.
"All of this starts and ends with me," said Anarumo earlier this week. "The players have done a fantastic job of preparing, practicing with energy, giving us our best. Proud of the way we've gone about that. I need to do a better job of making sure it shows up on Sundays."
During their Super Bowl run during the 21-22 season (which ended with an eventual late loss to the Rams), Anarumo's defense was the backbone of that surprising group. His creative game plans and use of personnel earned him the nicknames "Lou-dini" and "The Mad Scientist." A year later, the Bengals reached the AFC Championship game in Kansas City and damn near pulled that one out (Joseph Ossai got whistled for a late hit on Patrick Mahomes) late in the fourth quarter, leading to a Harrison Butker game-winner with just three seconds left. Since then, the magic has left The Queen City and Anarumo.
The Bengals went from 7th in defensive DVOA that season to near the bottom of the league just two years later and are surrendering nearly a touchdown more per game than in '23-24. Aside from DE Trey Hendrickson and LB Logan Wilson, no defender is having a good year, and several highly drafted defenders (Myles Murphy, Sam Hubbard, Cam Taylor-Britt, and Kris Jenkins) and a handful of free agents (safeties Geno Stone and Vonn Bell) are failing to deliver on their promise. You can't fire all the players, which means Anarumo is undoubtedly on a scorching hot seat.
"There's as much pressure in this league every day you walk into the building," he said when asked about his job security. "My focus is on our players and trying to get them better every day. That's all I think about. I mean, we all know, as NFL coaches, what we signed up for. And like I said, my concerns are our players and getting them in the best position to be successful on Sundays. That's all I think about."
Cincy's defensive woes are overshadowing Joe Burrow's incredible season — an MVP campaign if the Bengals' "D" could be slightly below average. The former number-one overall pick has 30 touchdown passes, the most TDs by a quarterback with 8 or more losses through his team’s first 12 games of a season. Burrow has thrown for 300 or more yards and three or more touchdowns in five losses this year, also the most ever (with 5 games to go). It's hard to suppress that high level of play, but that's precisely what's happened, and it's weighing on the franchise signal caller.
"I feel the pressure on me to be great," said Burrow. "That's part of playing quarterback in the NFL. I just have to play to the absolute peak of my ability every week for us to go and win. Some games I've done that. Some games I haven't."
OUT OF TOUCH?
Of all the people I expected to be critical of the 3-game suspension of Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair for his dirty hit on Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, Tom Brady wasn't one of them. Yet here we are.
“It’s gone to a point where everyone will label a certain player as a dirty player; I don’t like that one bit,” Brady told "The Herd with Colin Cowherd" Tuesday. “Maybe they fine or penalize a quarterback for sliding late and say, ‘Look, if we don’t want these hits to take place, we’ve got to penalize the offense and the defense rather than just penalize a defensive player for every single play that happens when there is a hit on a quarterback.’”
Brady believes that quarterbacks need to " take better care of themselves" when exiting the pocket. And while there is something to that - watch how Mahomes constantly flirts with the sideline before continuing his jaunt - I find this a little rich coming from someone like Brady, who begged for flags over the latter part of his career if even so much of a hair of his was knocked out of place.
In Lawrence's case, he clearly surrendered on the play, sliding feet first. Al-Shaaiir could have altered his body position but instead decided to lead with a vicious forearm shiver (wearing an elbow brace, no less) and then tried to pretend as if he didn't do anything egregious. The league has suspended Al-Shaair for three games (he has appealed).
“I see Josh Allen running a lot, I see Lamar Jackson running a lot, and it’s a great skill to have. I wish I had that skill set,” said Brady. “And at the same time, when you run, you put yourself in a lot of danger, and when you do that, I don’t think the onus of protecting an offensive quarterback whose running should be on a defensive player. I don’t really think that’s fair to the defense.”
Perhaps. I've often struggled with the expectation that defenders can adjust a strike point in a split second, but this play wasn't that. In addition, Al-Shaair has a history of living on or going over the edge, including a punch to Bears' RB Rochon Johnson earlier this year (after a borderline dirty hit on Caleb Williams), which played into the length of his suspension.
Texans GM Nick Caserio was passionate in his defense of the linebacker - “Where we take umbrage is the picture that’s been painted about Azeez, his intentions, who he is as a person — quite frankly, it’s bull(bleep)" - and head coach DeMeco Ryans also stood by his guy. You expect that. Al-Shaair is an essential player on their team. But Brady, who took an oddly aggressive stance on Daniel Jones asking for his release from the Giants a couple weeks ago, misses the mark on this situation.
(Lawrence has been placed on injured reserve and is likely done for the season).
BUYER BEWARE
The Pats have so much cap space and so many needs that they should be massive players in free agency. But generally, there's a reason these players get to this point, especially in the age of significantly better salary cap management and a cap that rises around 10% every year.
A case in point is Diontae Johnson. The 28-year-old wide receiver was a 1,200-yard receiver in 2021 and caught 86 balls in 2022. Entering the last year of his contract, Johnson had a chance to re-establish himself as a go-to pass catcher in Carolina (after being dealt last off-season) and get paid this off-season. Instead, after being traded by the Panthers at the deadline, Johnson has been suspended by his new team, the Baltimore Ravens, for refusing to enter Sunday's loss to Philadelphia.
There had been questions about Johnson's playing time in that loss. He dressed but never played despite Rashod Bateman being sidelined in the second half with a knee injury. Head coach John Harbaugh was vague about Johnson's non-usage, and when the suspension was announced publicly through a statement, GM Eric DeCosta called it a "difficult decision."
Johnson's issues should come as no surprise. He ran his course in Pittsburgh with Mike Tomlin, who knows a thing or three about mercurial pass catchers, and then pouted his way out of Carolina because of their quarterback play. Some teams will convince themselves they can reach the former third-round pick out of Toledo. Perhaps, but even if you do, it won't last with this guy. It never does. (That's code for don't ask me about Johnson in free agency this winter. No. Just, no).
LAST RIDE
After his contract lapsed in Buffalo, Micah Hyde didn't seek employment elsewhere or file retirement papers. After a couple of physically difficult seasons, the 11-year vet wanted to return home to San Diego to heal up, spend time with his family, and coach his son's soccer team.
But Hyde never closed the door on a return to the Bills, and GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott left the light on, never pouring cold water on the rumored reunion. Those rumors became a reality on Wednesday as Hyde signed to the Bills practice squad.
“Match made in heaven, baby,” he said. “Everyone’s saying, ‘Welcome back.’ It’s more like ‘Welcome home.’”
The Bills turned over their safety room this off-season, letting Hyde and running mate Jordan Poyer (released) go, drafting Cole Bishop, signing Kareem Jackson and watching Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin elevate. McDermott insists that Hyde's signing does not reflect how they feel about that room.
"We are fully confident (in those players)," he said. "They've all been doing a real good job for us in the roles that they are currently in. They're going to stay in those roles and Micah is in a practice squad role, so good to have him back and his family as well."
Hamlin said he studied Hyde's every move for the three years they were teammates and is thrilled to have him back in the building. Josh Allen called Hyde one of his all-time favorite teammates, and Von Miller noted that the mere presence of safety is uplifting.
"I'm taking it day by day, and I think that's a special thing, and that's the cool thing about this new role is, I can take it day by day; I don't have to have a goal to be out there on Sunday, this weekend or next weekend or whatever it may be," said Hyde, adding. "So, listen, I'm here to help. I left my ego in San Diego. As I said, the goal has always been to bring a championship back here, and that's always going to be the goal. Until that happens, you guys probably going to be tired of me, because after this season and I truly retire, maybe you might see me doing something else here until we get a championship."