The first big domino of the baseball offseason has fallen… and the Red Sox were not involved.
Fortunately, it wasn’t Juan Soto they missed out on — yet. Instead, the Sox failed to procure the services of the best available pitcher on the free agent market as Blake Snell opted to join a small market organization with limited funds that’s been struggling to acquire talent.
You know, the Los Angeles Dodgers. At least, that’s what one would think given that Snell became the latest L.A. signee to agree to defer salary when he agreed to a five-year, $182-million deal with the defending World Series champs…
The #Dodgers have now secured $964M of deferred payments since July 2020.
— Spotrac (@spotrac) November 27, 2024
Shohei Ohtani: $680M/$700M
Mookie Betts: $115M/$365M
Blake Snell: $62M/$182M
Freddie Freeman: $57M/$162M
Will Smith: $50M/$140M
(I’m all for gaming the system, and what the Dodgers are currently doing here isn’t illegal. But seriously, MLB might need to do something to limit this tactic in the interest of competitive balance…)
Nevertheless, the best starter is officially off the market and the Red Sox missed out.
Or did they pass?
We know the Sox met with the two-time Cy Young-winning left-hander. We don’t know what their offer to him was, or if they even made an offer at all. As is well-documented, they are currently attempting to reel in the biggest fish in franchise history at record cost. Perhaps they would have been willing to spend on Snell but weren’t sure how far they might need to extend themselves for Soto.
Either way, Snell wasn’t willing to wait and chose an ideal location at an ideal price tag. To say it is hard to compete with the Dodgers in signing free agents right now might be the understatement of the century. A team with limitless talent and limitless resources coming off a dominant Fall Classic victory? Sign me up…
Yet even the Dodgers can’t sign everybody — not because of budgets, but because you can only carry 26 guys on your baseball team. With Snell off the market, that leaves Corbin Burnes and Max Fried in the next tier of top starters available.
Boston has met with — and benefitted from Lucas Giolito’s recruitment of — Fried, who seems like a more realistic fit given his status as the top remaining left-hander on the market. Not to say that Burnes — or Snell, for that matter — wouldn’t be a good fit, but I think that Fried is still the best available option.
Snell coming off the board also starts the clock and turns up the pressure for Craig Breslow to get a deal done with somebody. Boston could still wind up with the starter or two they need in a trade, namely Garrett Crochet, but that would require giving up assets — possibly one of your prized Big 4 — instead of simply forking over just cash.
Their offseason grade won’t be finalized until the start of next season, but were Boston to not come away with at least one of Snell (gone), Fried, Burnes or Crochet, I would consider that a major failure barring a trade for another top arm…
Hot Soto-ve
If reports from credible reporters are to be believed (which, yeah, they should…), the Red Sox aren’t simply resting on their laurels after making their offer to Soto — they’re “pushing hard” and are “legitimate contenders.”
Per the New York Post, Boston’s pitch has centered on more than just they money — which is projected to approach and possibly exceed $600 million. Their sell has been to point to the Dominican stars of years past — Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz — as well as the success left-handed hitters have had at Fenway Park.
The Boston Red Sox are "increasingly seen" as a legitimate contender to sign Juan Soto, per @JonHeyman.#MLBNHotStove pic.twitter.com/mvq1b5fE7R
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) November 27, 2024
Having a rich history and iconic players — who also happen to be helping to actively recruit him — to point to isn’t a bad thing, but I’d imagine the appeal to being the star and face of the franchise in Boston is limited.
Soto is already a superstar — we wouldn’t be talking about him on a daily basis if he weren’t. No matter where Soto plays chooses to play next, he will continue to steal headlines for his performance. Heck, he rose to fame with the Nationals in Washington of all places…
From the team’s perspective, it’s becoming clearer and clearer that they actually are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Soto. That, if true, is deserving of credit. Not as much credit as if they actually sign him, because at the end of the day, you can always outbid somebody else…
Yet in their pursuit of Soto, it seems like the Sox are finally being genuine about acquiring star talent again. Of course, it will mean nothing if the Sox fare no better than “Soto finalist” and then fail to make any other big moves this winter…
The good news is that, if Soto somehow does sign with Boston, the Sox aren’t planning to stop there. The Boston Globe’s reporting suggests that the Sox would look to keep spending to add another top starter, and their approach this offseason isn’t “an either/or proposition.”
That’s certainly good, but it doesn’t address what would happen if they don’t sign Soto. If you’re willing to spend big on Soto and then another starter, you should still be willing to write a big check for the next best hitter on the market as well… right?
Logic would dictate so, but we know the Sox’s front office has been devoid of sound logic in recent years. The logical follow up would be to shift to attempting to sign Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Teoscar Hernandez — or perhaps both Bregman and Hernandez.
You can’t guarantee any signing, even if you leave things with the biggest offer on the table — although you’ll probably sign more players than not when that is the case. Maybe the Sox strike out on all of the above this offseason. We certainly wouldn’t be happy about it, but if the Sox end up making top-level offers to top-level players, it’s something we could credit them for and live with (before shifting to bashing them for becoming an undesirable destination thanks to their recent lack of spending).
Personally, I’d rather live in a world where the Sox just sign the Sotos and Frieds of the world…
Happy Thanksgiving!