As of today, the Patriots currently sit 5th in the NFL Draft order, thanks to the Browns' victory over the Steelers on Thursday night.
Right now, the Patriots stand at the top of the class of the 3-8 teams due to their strength of schedule (only the Dolphins, Commanders, Texans, Chargers, Eagles and Bills have had an easier road, or equal, to this point). But that's about to change some. The Patriots have the second-hardest (Bears) strength of schedule in the remaining six games. Our friend Aaron Schatz has the Patriots with the best chance to end up with the first overall pick (18.9%) over the Browns (before Thursday's win), Titans and Raiders. Patriots have a 78% chance at a top 5 pick.
You could make the argument the Patriots could use help just about every place on the roster outside of guard and strong safety (depending on the future of Jabrill Peppers). Patriots could use immediate help at LT, RT, WR1, WR2, edge, NT, LB, CB and FS. They could use help, down the line, at RB, TE and center.
The Patriots have nine selections in the draft, including an extra third (Matthew Judon) and two in the seventh (Nick Folk, part of the JC Jackson trade). They do not have a sixth (Jackson).
In other words, there is plenty of work to do and a lot of different directions they could go. There will be plenty of time in the offseason to dive into all the areas, but for now let's take a look at the landscape at the two biggest positions of need: left tackle (today) and receiver (next week). What are the best options in the draft and free agency/trade? Let's take a look.
LEFT TACKLE
Are there going to be options in free agency?
It certainly won't be a question of assets. The Patriots lead the league with $118 million in effective cap space for 2025, followed by the Cardinals ($98 million), Raiders ($90 million) and Commanders ($80 million).
But especially with this position and the dearth of good tackle play throughout the league, it's going to be a matter of supply. There's hardly any inventory at left tackle (especially) on an annual basis. In 2024, Jonah Williams (he's played one game due to injury), Jermaine Eluemunor, George Fant, Yosh Nijman, Tyron Smith and Trent Brown were the top of the market. None are franchise types. In 2023, it was Mike McGlinchey, Jawaan Taylor and Orlando Brown. Two years out, those guys are good players but only Brown is a LT. He also allowed 59 pressures in 2023.
Finding a starting LT is fairly tough in free agency.
There's one player who would be a bonafide franchise left tackle if he hit the market: Ronnie Stanley of the Ravens. But there's almost no chance he'll hit the market. The Ravens don't have any other major free agents up after this season, so they'll have the franchise tag available. Denver's Garett Bolles is in a similar situation. A tier below Stanley, but Denver also doesn't have many free agents. He'll be 33 next season so perhaps the Broncos would stop short of the franchise tag (projected to be $22.7 for any offensive lineman) but it's not that much of a raise over what he's currently making on a 2020 extension ($17 million APY).
Cam Robinson, who was traded midseason from the Jaguars to Vikings, would be the other option. He's allowed 11 pressures in three starts for the Vikings. He's a middling left tackle, but certainly an option. Minnesota has Sam Darnold, Harrison Smith and Aaron Jones up after the year.
An intriguing name just re-entered the space as former Cardinals starter DJ Humphries, recovered from his ACL surgery, signed for the rest of the year with the Chiefs. He's obviously banking on playing well during a Chiefs playoff run and then cashing in after the season. If he plays well, he might be at the top of the list and headed to the highest bidder. Someone to watch the rest of the season.
Tyron Smith leads the Jets in sacks allowed and is dealing with another injury (neck). I guess he could be a backup option.
Are there good draft options?
Not quite as good as last year where Joe Alt (fifth overall - Chargers) and JC Latham (seventh - Titans) went in the top 10. Olu Fashanu (11th-Jets), Taliese Fuaga (14th-Saints), Amarius Mims (18th-Bengals), Troy Fautanu (20th-Steelers), Jordan Morgan (25th-Packers) and Tyler Guyton (29th-Cowboys) also went in the first round.
You could make the argument only Alt (21 pressures in 9 games) has delivered as a rookie — at right tackle. But Latham (23 pressures in 10 games) has had his moments on the left side. But they're all rookies. Long ways to go.
Who are the top prospects in the 2025 draft?
Will Campbell, LSU (6-foot-6, 319 pounds)
Probably has the highest floor of this group, but you wonder how high the ceiling is. Certainly not the most dynamic athlete and won't wow you with his foot speed, but he knows how to play and is rock-solid. Could play a long time in this league. This is the film from his "worst" game of the season. Has started since 2022.
Kelvin Banks Jr, Texas (6-4, 320)
The size and arm length are going to be a big concern but he's pretty damn good and has a higher ceiling than Campbell due to his athletic ability. He also has more of a bust factor but he's pretty stout and strong. Like his film a lot. One thing I didn't like, and it could be very minor: when he gave up "sacks" against Georgia, he raised his arms to complain about the QB running into a sack (and he wasn't wrong). I don't know, just kind of rubbed me a little wrong. Again, very minor. There was a lot of talk about his play against Georgia - I didn't think it was as bad as people made it out to be. I didn't think he "struggled." Has 30-plus starts at left tackle.
Josh Simmons, Ohio State (6-5, 310)
Was shooting up big-time before a season-ending knee injury against Oregon. The San Diego State transfer could have ended up at the top of the list. Will he return to Columbus? When will he recover?
He played 10 snaps at LT (71) before the injury, which was almost non-contact.
As of right now, Cameron Williams (Texas), Josh Conerly (Oregon) and Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota) project more as right tackles in the NFL.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. I've already seen some bellyaching about why the Patriots didn't sign left tackle DJ Humphries, who just got cleared from ACL surgery and signed with the Chiefs.
The #Chiefs are giving former Pro Bowl LT DJ Humphries a salary that pays him $2M with a max value of $4.5M for the rest of the season in a deal done by @SportsAmdg. Big money this time of year. (Edited for clarity.) https://t.co/oej2xddDMe
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 22, 2024
I can understand it from the Patriots' perspective, but why on Earth would Humphries want to sign with a 3-8 team? The Chiefs are the perfect situation for him. He gets a huge stage in the playoffs to prove his health and level of play, and then he can cash in during the offseason as perhaps the best (and only?) free-agent left tackle. There's no amount of money the Patriots could offer to take that option off the table for Humphries.
2. Count Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel among the many who have been impressed by Drake Maye.
“I saw a true quarterback who has the ability to gain the confidence of his teammates and lead and orchestrate an offense," McDaniel told reporters this week. "A guy who can make plays in a multitude of ways. The Patriots are kind of feeling that right now where he’s a guy who can see down the field, can play fearlessly in the pocket and make every throw -- with the arm strength to do it. But also a very good athlete that has some juice and can make plays off schedule. That’s been a huge bonus to their offense of late. ...
“He’s a guy you expect to continue to get better. It’s always impressive when rookie quarterbacks make plays at the NFL level, because there’s a lot coming at them. ... I think it’s a credit to him and his preparation, and their coaching staff, as well.”
3. Alex Van Pelt not knowing Marcus Jones had previously played offense wasn't an indictment of him, but it was another for Jerod Mayo.
"I knew this question was coming. Look, the primary focus for us this year was to get Marcus healthy and get Marcus ready to go as a cornerback and a punt returner. That was the primary goal,” Mayo told reporters on Friday. “That was the focus. Look, how much time do we want to spend on gadget plays? He’s most valuable on the defensive side of the ball.”
I can understand that approach for Mayo to start the season, but at some point when the offense was struggling at 1-6, you can't mention to Van Pelt that he might want to look at some Jones tape? This all goes back to whether the coaching staff is getting all they can out of their roster. The answer is obviously no.
4. It's obviously a complete joke that Robert Kraft was passed over again for the Hall of Fame, according to an ESPN report. Ralph Hay? Please. Of course, this is probably for the best because the way the process is now — the contributor would have to go up against coaches and senior players in the next round — he probably wasn't advancing. The Hall needs to figure out a better process.
5. BEDARD'S PICK
Season: 3-6-2 spread, 6-5 straight up.
Line: Dolphins -7.5, 46 o/u
If the Patriots couldn't cover the slower Rams last week, how are they going to hold up against the much faster and better-schemed Dolphins? Add in that Christian Gonzalez tweaked his hip on Friday and is questionable for the game ... not great. I also don't like the matchup between the Patriots' offensive line and the Dolphins' front with Zach Sieler, Calais Campbell and rookie Chop Robinson, who is really coming on and has great closing speed. Plus, we all know the history of the Patriots down in Miami.
Dolphins 30, Patriots 20