If the Red Sox don’t sign Juan Soto — alright, when the Red Sox don’t sign Juan Soto — then who should they sign?
“Should” and “will” are two very different questions, of course. But for discussion’s sake, let’s say John Henry & Co. surprise us all and make a competitive offer to Soto, meaning that they are indeed willing to spend this offseason.
There are the usual suspects: Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Teoscar Hernandez among the others. All three will command salaries well north of $20 million annually, but almost certainly none will reach the same stratosphere of Soto’s $500-million-plus (probably $600, possibly $700) deal.
So why not flip one New York free agent target for another?
Personally, I always come back to Alonso. Soto’s game has reached another level the past two seasons, with nearly identical 40-ish homer, 109-RBI campaigns. But when you compare Soto’s and Alonso’s first five seasons, Alonso’s production comes out ahead.
The slugging Mets first baseman averaged 38 homers and 100 RBIs while Soto averaged 25 and 75. Soto swung a more consistent bat, batting .287 with a .950 OPS, while Alonso hit just .251 with an .870 OPS.
Soto is five years younger, but Alonso represents that elusive right-handed bat the Sox have so desperately needed. Alonso’s swing does feel tailor-made for the Green Monster, and while he will be 30 by the time next season begins, there’s plenty of reason to believe he can remain productive well into his 30s.
Once Soto sets the market, I’d predict Alonso will sign for an AAV of somewhere between $25 and $30 million (a number that could always balloon if the bidding gets crazy). Why not throw five or maybe even seven years at $30 million to Alonso? I’d be plenty comfortable signing that deal.
Looking elsewhere, Hernandez still profiles as a good fit who has shown an affinity for playing in Boston. Coming off a previous AAV of $23.5 million, you figure that number will bump up a bit — probably in the $27 million range. He’s only 32, so a little bit ahead of Alonso, but not significantly so. I’d say Hernandez would be my ideal Alonso backup plan (who himself should be the backup plan to Alonso).
I do like Bregman’s bat and wouldn’t object to the Sox signing him if the other options are off the board. But his offseason elbow surgery to remove a bone chip could be a red flag, so I would treat him more as a “break glass in case of emergency” signing.
Beyond those four, Christian Walker could be a good fit, but is a little older than the rest at 33 and isn’t a great contact bat. I could see the Sox taking a flyer on Paul Goldschmidt, too, who at age 37 is on the back nine — but could still pack some pop.
Now, almost all of these options I’ve presented are corner infielders — and the Sox currently have those boxes thoroughly checked in Rafael Devers and Triston Casas. As for where to put them, I’m moving on from Masataka Yoshida in almost every scenario this offseason, which opens up a spot for the newly signed bat or Devers. Then there’s the possibility of a Casas trade, which would open up first base as well.
And of course, not signing Soto would allow for more room to bring in another starter, which frankly is a bigger need — as nice as it would be to have Soto. Not signing a deal worth $50 million-plus AAV conceivable allows you to sign two players around $25 million per, which is nothing to sneeze at.
There are plenty of intriguing names on the starter market — Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and Shane Bieber among them. Snell and Burnes will probably set the market, leaving Fried, Flaherty and Bieber in that next tier.
It’s wishful thinking, I know, but I’d rather have Alonso and Fried (and getting greedy, I’d love to add Bieber to that trio) than only Soto. There’s always the chance that all could be in play, but logically speaking, we know that probably won’t be the case.
There’s a good amount of intriguing options out there, for sure. So when the Sox do inevitably miss out on Soto, no matter how close or far their offer falls, all is not lost and there are still plenty of chances to significantly bolster this roster.
Soto pitches
The Red Sox brass isn’t the only one making its pitch for Soto’s services.
Boston stars past and present are making their voices heard. Pedro Martinez said in a podcast interview with Steve Perrault that he’s predicting that the Sox will sign Soto this offseason, adding that “he’s the kind of bat and power we need. New England will go cuckoo bananas, I’ll be jumping on top of the dugout.”
David Ortiz went as far as to call Soto the next, well, him. Ortiz told WEEI that “if there was one player in baseball who could be the next David Ortiz in Boston, it is Juan Soto” and added that pairing Soto with Devers “would have Manny and Papi for the left side.”
Even Jarren Duran got in on the recruitment pitch, telling MLB Network that “I feel like he’d abuse that Monster in left field, like he has against a couple of times. That would be fun to see.”
Everybody loves Soto, and what’s not to love? It’s not a surprise that Soto’s fellow countrymen in Martinez and Ortiz are firmly in his corner, and it’s not a surprise that a current member of the Sox is pushing for the team to add the star outfielder — even though it could ironically lead to that very player being shown the door via trade.
Sotomania is running wild, and even if it isn’t practical, it’s still pretty fun…
To Casas, or not to Casas
Triston Casas and his future with the Red Sox organization have become a hot-button issue.
Despite Craig Breslow coming out and pooh-poohing the concept of trading away Casas at MLB’s recent GM meetings, the idea of Boston moving on from their young first baseman of the future is gaining steam around baseball.
“Now is the time to trade Casas because he’s had three of the last four years affected by injuries,” ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested on the Baseball Tonight podcast. “He had that one monster season which fueled the perception of him in a positive way in the industry, but last year was another down year. If he has another down year, man, it would be hard, his value would drop precipitously.”
Olney’s trade proposal was based on the Sox moving Devers to first, something that Breslow also pushed back on at the GM meetings. Nevertheless, the fact that a reporter as prominent as Olney is openly suggesting this on the Worldwide Leader airwaves leads me to believe that there’s more smoke on this than we know.
It would make sense from an asset management standpoint given the availability of so many first basemen and the need for pitching. And while I wouldn’t put Casas in the “untouchable” category, I’m still a believer and think Casas could still be an anchor of this lineup for years to come.
So I guess Breslow and I can agree on something…