FOXBOROUGH — What do we know about the Patriots with seven games to play in Jerod Mayo's first season as coach?
The special teams are vastly improved, especially at kicker.
The rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, is very talented and athletic, seems to have the right demeanor and makeup - and to this point, he's made plays for both teams in each game.
And the Patriots coaches are not among the worst in the league. They proved that much by besting the Jets and Bears, two teams that were cratering at the time of the matchup and are headed for full regime changes in the offseason.
Other than that, not much.
That's why Sunday's matchup is such a great opportunity for Mayo and his coaching staff. Call it a proof of concept-type matchup. The wins over the Jets and Bears were certainly nice and featured some promising coaching signs. While the Rams aren't world-beaters — they are very much in the middle of a rebuild and dealing with a ton of injuries on the offensive line — Sean McVay is still an excellent coach, and this represents a big step up on the coaching front over Jeff Ulbrich and Matt Eberflus.
If the Patriots can match wits with McVay, that would be the most definitive sign that the Patriots are going in the right direction and could really springboard them to a strong closing stretch that would be vital heading into 2025.
Have another game like the Titans - which followed the Jets victory - and the Patriots would seem to be stuck in the same cycle: they can get over on the imploding teams, but they struggle to get over the hump against competent outfits.
The Rams, to this point, are 19th in total DVOA, while the Patriots are 30th. Considering the Patriots are at home, the Rams are on short rest and playing at 10 a.m. their time, this game should be in their weight class. And these aren't the Rams you remember. They are slow and struggling on offense with zero running game. Their defense, in terms of the EPA efficiency metric, are 2nd in the league over the last four games. The Patriots also seem to be improving on defense and will get a boost with the return of Christian Barmore today from blood clots.
So this game will likely come down to the quarterbacks, and the coaches.
What do I want to see from the Patriots' coaches in this one?
First and foremost, I want to see a plan for rookie defensive end Jared Verse. Call this the Jeffrey Simmons Test. The Rams' defense has young talent, but Verse is the difference-maker. Over the last four games, he has 24 total quarterback pressures: 3.5 sacks, 10 hits and 13 hurries. The next-closest players are Kobie Turner (14), Byron Young (13) and rookie DT Braden Fiske (12 - loved him at the Senior Bowl). This is one of those games where the head coach has to tell the offensive coordinator, "The No. 1 thing we have to do is limit No. 8. Everything works off that."
If we get to the end of the game (or even the first half) and Verse is wrecking the game like Simmons did, that's an epic fail by the coaching staff, starting with Mayo and Alex Van Pelt.
Defensively, the Patriots have to keep the Rams' non-existent running game in the same place it is. Most of the Rams' passing game relies on playaction because they are pretty slow and Matthew Stafford needs time for things to develop, and for McVay's scheme to open up space in the defense. That's been a huge issue so far this season. Stafford is the worst full-time starter in the league facing pressure (47.1 rating). The only part-time QBs worse than him have been Will Levis, Joe Flacco and Spencer Rattler. Woof.
The Rams are without two of their top three tackles (Rob Havenstein, Joe Notebloom). And they are deciding which among Jonah Jackson, Steve Avila, or Beaux Limmer will start at center. In other words, they are hurting up front. This is a matchup the Patriots need to win, just like they did against the Bears.
Finally, the Patriots need to have a plan against the Rams' top wideouts: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and DeMarcus Robinson. The Patriots have won all three games where they've played man coverage at their highest rate. I don't see why that shouldn't continue. If I guess, I would say Christian Gonzalez goes with Nacua, who isn't fast but is strong and one of the best route runners. Jonathan Jones, who played mostly safety last week, could get the quicker Kupp who is also bigger than you think - and Marcus Jones has been picked on due to this size.
Lastly, the Patriots need to dominate on special teams. Over the last four games (a better measure than the entire season at this point), the Patriots are 10th in EPA and the Rams are 29th.
This game is in the Patriots' wheelhouse. This is not a game where people should be making the talent argument after the game. This is a perfect opportunity to prove the Jets and Bears games weren't flukes against teams that were bottoming out. The Rams are a borderline playoff team, hoping to make a push. If the Patriots stand in their way, or at least take them down to the wire, then that would be a real, tangible accomplishment.
And the Patriots would definitely be pointing up.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Welcome back, Christian Barmore. Kind of surprised that after just one official padded practice, the Patriots decided to activate Barmore but the doctors definitely cleared him. I'm sure they feel comfortable where he is. I'm wondering if just the sight of him on the field might be inspiring his teammates and worth the gameday roster spot. I'd be shocked if he played a ton, but I'm also pretty surprised he returned before December. Everyone heals differently.
2. Goodbye, Tyquan Thornton. The Patriots released their 2022 second-round pick after just six games played this season. He finished his Patriots career with 39 receptions on 76 targets, 385 yards and two touchdowns in 28 games. I know a lot of people will be asking why didn't the Patriots trade him when they could? They couldn't. Despite his name being out there and rumored to teams like the Cowboys, the Patriots couldn't give Thornton away.
3. The Patriots' 2022 draft class is just bloodbath. Only Cole Strange, Marcus Jones and Kevin Harris (practice squad) remain with the team. I mean, we're not even through Year 3! Holy cow. Call it the Overdrafted Class of 2022. And you wonder why the Patriots are where they are.
4. From what I know about the reported offensive background work done by the Krafts (which is true), it's not as much about finding the next offensive coordinator as sort of doing the due diligence and vetting the process of developing a young quarterback, which should have been done last March and April. They're not necessarily looking to replace Van Pelt. They're trying to figure out how best to support Maye and also Jerod Mayo as he enters Year 2.
5. BEDARD'S PICK
Season: 3-5-2 spread, 5-5 straight up.
Line: Rams -4.5 43.5 o/u
To me, this game comes down to DeMarcus Covington and the Patriots' defense. They have to stop the run and get pressure on Matthew Stafford behind a brutally beat up offensive line. If they do that, the Patriots should be in the game until the end. Drake Maye and the offense are going to struggle against this Rams defense, which is playing its best ball of the season. They've only allowed 18.5 points per game in the last four games since their bye week — and they've played the Vikings, Seahawks (OT) and Dolphins. Those are no offensive slouches. The Patriots have only scored 18.3 points per game in the four games Drake Maye has started and finished. In other words, the only thing I feel confident about on Sunday is the under.
Rams 20, Patriots 17.