I did not go into my weekly appearance with Felger & Mazz expecting to create week-long content for everyone regarding Jerod Mayo and his future, but it is what it is.
I don't take anything back, other than my comment about the coaches taking vacation during the bye week. That was unfair of me. I was reactionary and emotional from watching the wretched defensive film. Not proud of that moment and that was wrong of me to say.
But the rest? I completely stand by it.
What I said: Mayo is not assured of a second season if this is a complete dumpster fire the rest of the way, which I do not think is likely. But considering where they are after Week 7 (being blown out 16 points or more four of the last five weeks, calling his team soft, the dreaded midseason team meeting, etc.) — and they still have six games until they even reach the bye week — it can't be ruled out. Things could definitely get a lot worse. Of course, a win - any win - could change a lot of things and that needs to be the goal of Mayo and the Patriots.
I always go back to the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers teams I covered after Brett Favre's departure. They went from the NFC Championship game to 6-10 and then 4-4 in 2009 after a 10-point loss to a horrible Buccaneers team that was 0-7, had lost 11 straight games and would start that '09 season 1-12, with Green Bay the only victory. Packers fans wanted everyone gone: Rodgers, Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson.
The Packers did hold a team meeting (Rodgers got called out on the carpet for playing hero ball), beat Dallas the next week and finished the season 7-1 before losing a wild wild-card game to the Cardinals. The Packers used that as a springboard to winning a title in 2010.
I'm not comparing the two situations at all. The Packers had talent that would win a Super Bowl the very next season, and the Patriots very much do not. I'm just illustrating how much a win can change things.
The Patriots - Mayo, specifically - need a win very badly. That's why the Dolphins and Jaguars games (and to a lesser extent, the Seahawks game) were so frustrating. The opportunity to get another program-affirming victory was right there for them, and they collectively couldn't get it done.
That's why I have such a problem with some of the 10,000-foot commentary about Mayo and this team - yes, specifically by my good friend Chris Gasper, who I respect immensely. As a columnist, Gasper is great at looking at the big picture; it's why he's so good at his job. He sees things at the macro level that I just don't because I've been on the micro level my entire career in what I do analyzing the team. We just have two different jobs, and that's fine.
But I just reject some of the rationale for the Patriots being 1-6. Yes, the Patriots won four games last year but I maintain they could have and should have won more — they lost eight games by one score or less. Too many turnovers at quarterback, a bad kicker and coaching dysfunction (which Mayo was a central figure) caused last season to be worse than it was. Sure, they lacked talent but that didn't stop me from criticizing Belichick's coaching throughout the season because that season should have been better. Like this column after a 10-point loss to the Chiefs when Belichick completely mismanaged the game several times:
We know the 2024 Patriots are short on talent, and Eliot Wolf's decisions are a big part of why. We know injuries have made that situation worse. But are we just supposed to throw up our hands, say the Patriots just aren't talented and just ignore the actual games? That's what it seems like some people want to do, and I just reject that. Somebody call Goodell and tell the league the Patriots are not going to field a team the rest of the season. They play the games for a reason, and there's a scoreboard. I don't care who is on the field: we can make evaluations on the coaches, players, quarterback, personnel department as they play these games. I mean, why else are we here?
Just as point of reference, Dan Campbell took over a Lions team (thanks to Matt Patricia) that had finished last three straight years. In Campbell's first season, the Lions went from 5-11 to 3-13-1. They did not have good personnel (yes, it was better than the Patriots) and lost ... were people just supposed to ignore the actual games? Campbell's team lost but they competed: the Lions fell by 16 or more points four times (Mayo's Patriots have already matched that in seven games), and they went 3-3 to finish the season.
The point is, Campbell and the Lions accomplished something by losing, even if they lacked talent and rebuilding.
That's all I'm asking for from Mayo and the Patriots. I don't think that's unfair. So we'll see what happens in the final 10 games.
As for Mayo's future, the Krafts obviously do not want to fire him, and I'm sure they haven't even contemplated it - they usually let the entire season play out and have a post-season meeting before making any changes. Of course, they didn't do that last year when the decision to move on from Belichick and enact their Mayo succession plan starting at 2-8. So Mayo better watch his back.
The truth of the matter, when it comes to Mayo and the Krafts, after a series of conversations with sources in and around the team, is the Krafts had some doubts about Mayo's readiness in the offseason when they didn't see much action behind Mayo's corporate jargon (the warning signs should have been there after his opening press conference). But most around the team were impressed with the camp Mayo ran, and the results spoke for themselves in the opening win over the Bengals. But as we've explained, season openers are no barometers for anything - especially against the slow-starting Bengals, with the Patriots having new leadership in all three phases of the game and months to prepare for the Bengals.
The proof of what Mayo and this coaching staff were going to be capable of (or their shortcomings) would be revealed once they got into the cycle of the season and it's one week after another of 60-hour weeks, fatigue sets in, you've been self-scouted, there's more film on you, and now you have a short week against the Jets, then you have to travel to the West Coast, then to London, deal with injuries and adjust to those. I mean, the findings are there for all to see, unless you just want to bury your head in the sand of the roster: the coaching and the ability to provide solutions to make the team competitive are getting worse by the week. That's just a fact.
And the Krafts see this and they are alarmed, make no mistake about it.
If things get worse — along the lines of losing out, even more non-competitive games and signs that Mayo has lost the room and players are quitting — then absolutely I think Mayo being a one-and-one is possible, if not probable. And I do think Mike Vrabel being available and the Krafts not wanting to pass on him twice, could increase the likelihood of the Krafts moving on.
But I don't think that's going to happen. I think the Patriots will find a way to be more competitive, and that might happen just because of Drake Maye, if he keeps the rate of improvement he's shown dating back to the Eagles preseason game.
I think the Krafts will retain Mayo and Wolf, but they will basically mandate Mayo bring in more experienced coaches on defense and to assist Mayo. And Mayo will do anything the Krafts tell him to do. Whether Van Pelt is retained will depend on how Maye plays in the final 10 games.
But here's the problem the Krafts are going to run into. Maye is a draw, no question, but what offensive coordinator is going to come in here to be with a possible lame-duck head coach? They also have to realize there's a lot of chatter in league circles about Mayo and how good he is, which led to some of the staffing problems last offseason. Between Mayo's eroded relationship with Bill Belichick, Belichick's people not respecting how Mayo conducted himself in Belichick's final season, and the less-than-flattering reviews of the interviews the Patriots conducted last offseason, the well is going to be pretty poisoned when it comes to finding the right people to support Mayo. Of course, money and contract terms solve a lot of that - but not all.
The Krafts might reach a conclusion that supporting Mayo better is the way to proceed (their preference) ... but what does that actually look like? And would it just be better to cut their losses, admit their mistake (I also fault Bob Kraft for not telling Mayo, if he was the heir apparent five years ago, to go out and get the needed experience elsewhere), and move on as quickly as possible? Yes, it would be a bad look to move on from Mayo, and it is what bad organizations do.
But if the Patriots ended up with Vrabel as head coach and his hand-picked general manager, Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator, Maye going into Year 2, a top 10 left tackle in the draft, a restocked roster thanks to $110 million in cap space ... is anyone really going to care what transpired with Mayo? You don't think Gillette Stadium would be banged out for the season opener?
That's the conundrum the Krafts are going to be looking at after the season, and they realize that. Bob relies on his gut ... what do you think his gut is telling him now, or will be after the Patriots finish 1-16 and are blown out eight times?
That's why the games matter, not just circumstances, for Mayo. In these final 10 games of the season, he needs to illustrate that he can run a detailed football program, not just talk a good game.
The results matter.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Speaking of Mayo's words, I don't have a problem with him calling his team soft, but I do have two big issues with how he did it. Let's start with his actual words, straight from the transcript:
"What I would say is, look, we're a soft football team across the board. You talk about what makes a tough football team. That is being able to run the ball, that is being able to stop the run, being able to cover kicks. We did none of those today. They controlled the ball for most of the day. Their run game averaged over four-and-a-half yards a carry. Our run game, not sure what the average was, but it wasn't good. Look, back to the drawing board. I mean, we can't sit here and pout. We just got to put a game together.”
At no point did Mayo include himself. I'm sure he meant to, and that was on his mind, but it's vital that a coach actually does that. Something like, 'We're a soft football team across the board and that is my fault. And I'm going to get that fixed. We're going to get that fixed."
2. The other issue: Mayo has no credibility - as a coach - to say what he did.
Mayo did as a player, and I'm sure that's what he was falling back on, but that was a long time ago. When he was captain of the Patriots, he could tell his teammates, "That was effing BS. We were soft today and that stuff is going to stop like effing today." Mayo was as tough as they came on the field, and no one defended the run better. Mayo the player could say that.
Mayo the coach? What's he proven in the eyes of the players? Don't think for one second that the players who know the difference aren't looking at him and whispering, like, 'Wait a minute. Are you kidding me? If we're soft what are you? Inept? Incapable? Incompetent? What answers are you geniuses coming up with to help us? What solutions are we being given? Foxboro High could run through us with the scheme choices you guys are making."
This was already a mess, but those words have Mayo on a tightrope with those players, whether he realizes it or not. This could go one of two ways against the Jets: the players rise up to show Mayo they're tough and we're talking on Sunday night about how Mayo was a genius and this could be his finest hour as Patriots coach and it turns everything around. Or, after an initial flurry, the Patriots collapse and go the other way. Sunday is must-see TV.
3. On a positive note, the Jets are a really good test for the early development of Drake Maye.
One NFL executive's opinion after two games: "I'm gonna be interested to see somebody play him a little bit more aggressively. Not just blitzing, but like, get on the receivers, change the looks, give him some goofy coverages. That's going to be another step in his development, but I've been impressed with him. I mean, for two games straight, he's handled the bullets, delivered to football. He's made some big-time throws. Gotta feel excited about that part."
I'm still not giving anyone credit for the plan or what have you. While Maye's mental game has improved the more he sees, his footwork and mechanics are starting to regress a little bit and I want to see what happens. Here's a good look at the positives and negatives late week from QB expert JT O'Sullivan:
It's still my belief that if the Patriots decided to fast-track Maye for the opener, he'd be doing what he's doing, maybe even sooner. They could have given the processing information to get him ready, but they just chose not to.
I did want to shoutout Van Pelt for his own substantial improvement from last week:
Not sure if I've done it, but I wanted to point out that Alex Van Pelt was also substantially improved at making protection a priority and the route concepts were better.
— Greg A. Bedard (@GregABedard) October 23, 2024
4. I'm worried that the reaction to the defensive issues is just going to be a ton more blitzing. That's fine against some quarterbacks, but the Patriots will play with fire against Aaron Rodgers.
5. BEDARD'S PICK
Season: 3-3-1 spread, 5-2 straight up.
Line: Jets -7, 40.5 o/u
I really don't know what we're going to get out of either of these teams. Rodgers is going throw a bunch of short crap to Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson, and then they'll try to some double moves. Rodgers won't throw it down the middle of the field or stay with the scheme, and will instead throw a bunch of back shoulders that aren't really effective. I do think the Jets will be able to run a bit, but not to the levels the Patriots have allowed in recent weeks because New England will (finally) throw more numbers at it.
I'm enthused about Maye and he'll continue to make plays, but the Jets are the type of team that will get him to turn it over.
What it all looks like is a total guess. Two teams that are enigmas at this point.
Jets 27, Patriots 17