The Patriots currently rank 29th in defensive DVOA - 27th against the pass, and 27th against the run (don't ask me how that adds up to 29th).
A year ago, the Patriots finished 9th - 15th vs. the pass, 3rd against the run.
We know there have been personnel issues this year, losing Matthew Judon, Christian Barmore, Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jabrill Peppers. But the Patriots also didn't have Judon and all three starting cornerbacks (Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones) for much or part (J. Jones) of last season. So just blaming it on personnel doesn't hold much water, in my opinion.
The biggest issue for the regression to this point? A spike in explosive plays allowed (rushes over 12 yards, receptions over 16 yards).
The Patriots are now 13th in the league with an average of 6.5 allowed per game. Since Week 1, when they tied for the league lead with just two explosive plays allowed in the lone win over the Bengals, the Patriots have allowed an average of 7.4 per game. Per week:
Bengals: 2
Seahawks: 5
Jets: 6
49ers: 8
Dolphins: 12
Texans: 6
You could make the argument the Jets, 49ers and Texans might have been worse if the game wasn't largely over in the fourth quarter of each game.
Last season, the Patriots led the league with just 5.2 explosive plays allowed per game. The Patriots only allowed six or more explosive plays, during a 4-13 season, six times (35.3%). This season, they've allowed six or more in each of the last four games (66.7%). So nearly double.
Mayo was critical of the defense on Monday.
"Defensively, I would say just big plays. Big plays killed us," he said. "They had two runs that were over 50 yards. You take those away and it looks a lot better, but at the same time, that's what the NFL is. You’ve got to limit those big plays."
When you allow explosive plays, it's a sign you're a poorly coached team, that you lack discipline. As Bill Belichick showed last year, with a cornerback group that had Myles Bryant, Jalen Mills, JC Jackson, Shaun Wade and Alex Austin among top snap-getters, it's about being disciplined, assignment-sure, doing your job and tackling well. The Patriots have gotten worse by the week under Mayo and DeMarcus Covington, and Mayo's frustration is rightfully mounting.
"Defensively I would say just the fundamentals of just tackling, our run fits have to improve. They have to improve," Mayo said after the game. "I told all those guys, I said, “You should feel like crap today. You should feel like crap.” ... We had two runs over 50 yards. That's just not winning football."
Mayo aims to fix it come Sunday against the Jaguars.
"To me, and I tell the guys this all the time, it's about that action," he said. "It's no more talking about what we need to do. It's about what we put out there on Sunday."
A look at some of the big plays (and touchdowns) allowed against the Texans, and then some possible personnel solutions:
1-10-NE 10 (3:18) (Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short left to J.Mixon for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
There was a communication error on this play between Jahlani Tavai and Kyle Dugger, but I'm not sure who is to blame. Patriots are in man coverage, Tavai has Joe Mixon and Dugger has TE Dalton Schultz, who runs a borderline legal pick on Tavai (not every pick beyond a yard is illegal - there has to be intent and action to take out the coverage player; if you just run a stop route and the cover player happens to run into you, that's legal). Either Dugger was supposed to switch with Tavai, or he likely has to flash like he's helping. Dugger is flat-footed and solely focused on Schultz.
1-10-HST 19 (11:24) J.Mixon left tackle pushed ob at NE 22 for 59 yards (J.Hawkins).
This features a weakness of the Patriots that dates back to Belichick - an undersized end being taken advantage of. It has been Deatrich Wise for years (he'll be coming up later), and this time it is Keion White. The big issue is White is almost instantly pushed out of his gap and so easily the guard doesn't have to help and can quickly get on Raekwon McMillan. Would be nice for Jaylinn Hawkins to limit this to about half the yardage with an open-field tackle (Devin McCourty was great at that), but he's late to recognize the run. This whole play is a bad run fit on all three levels.
2-10-NE 22 (10:37) (Shotgun) C.Stroud pass deep middle intended for D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by M.Jones (M.Mapu) at NE -8. M.Jones to NE 27 for 35 yards (D.Pierce).
Included this on the video to highlight Stroud's unforced error.
2-11-HST 23 (2:00) (Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to J.Mixon ran ob at HST 43 for 20 yards (M.Wilson)
This is a complete coverage bust by Tavai or Christian Elliss - no one covers Mixon out of the backfield. Would have been helpful if Joshua Uche hit the back coming out of the backfield to slow him up a little. That's usually a tactic used by the Patriots. This is just terrible on 2nd and 11 after the Texans fumbled the snap.
2-10-NE 10 (13:31) (Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short middle to S.Diggs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to a veteran running a great route against a young corner like Christian Gonzalez, who was put in a tough position playing off and Diggs is in a tough split where he can run the full route tree. Tough spot for Gonzo.
1-10-HST 20 (11:58) C.Stroud pass deep middle to S.Diggs to HST 46 for 26 yards (J.Jones)
Just a two-man route (are you paying attention Alex Van Pelt?) with the over and under route concept the Patriots have been killed by against the Seahawks, 49ers and Dolphins previously (all from the same Shanahan tree). This is just a mess. Dugger doesn't eliminate the over, which means Marte Mapu has to help and neither McMillan or Tavai recognizes the under route and are lost in coverage. Patriots are lucky this didn't go for 60 yards or longer. Stroud easily could have thrown the over.
2-4-NE 20 (13:23) J.Mixon left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Texans run the same play short-motion wham on Davon Godchaux as the 59-yarder. This time, Wise is in for White but the result is the same. Wise gets blown off the line which leads to Tavai getting eliminated (like McMillan earlier) and Jonathan Jones can't prevent Mixon from jump-cutting it to the outside.
1-10-HST 46 (7:58) (Shotgun) D.Pierce right end for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Ekuale runs up the field, vacating his gap. Jennings gets turned around. Both issues allow linemen to get up on McMillan and Tavai, but the real issue is Tavai thinks Stroud still has the ball and gets lost. He's supposed to fill the gap where the run goes. Add in Jaquelin Roy and Kyle Dugger missing tackles, and you have a long touchdown.
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Again, just a mess on all three levels. Poor fundamentals and a lack of discipline are most of the issues. The Patriots have to coach it up better, get these guys to play within the scheme.
I would like to see the Patriots make run defense more of a priority on the defensive line, which means three linemen who can hold up to double teams. White and Wise can't. They have to do a better job keeping the linemen off the linebackers.
At linebacker, the Patriots have to hope Sione Takitaki can replace McMillan, but he had his own issues in this game. I would be open to Kyle Dugger moving full-time to linebacker as well, as another option.
Here are the positional ratings against the Texans:
DEFENSE
Defensive line (2.5 out of 5)
Largely, this wasn't bad aside from the big plays thanks to some gap/edge issues from Deatrich Wise, Keion White and Anfernee Jennings. The pressure rate of 32% was above their season average, but they had to blitz a season-high 39% (PFF had it at 42.9%). ... Patriots are currently 26th in the league in pressure rate at 29.8%. Last year they ranked 23rd at 32.8%. ... Davon Godchaux was terrific again, and newcomer Jacquelin Roy impressed as well. He might be the answer at RE against the run.
Linebackers (0 out of 5)
Aside from Christian Elliss producing a hurry and half-sack, this group was brutal and seems to be getting worse by the week. ... Jahlani Tavai factored four big plays and a touchdown. Raekwon McMillan was part of two and an 8-yard run. Sione Takitaki completely overran his gap on an 11-yard run.
Secondary (1 out of 5)
Jonathan Jones and Christian Gonzalez had a rough day at the office in all facets of the game. ... I did not have a problem with the Marte Mapu penalty - he grabbed the TE's arm while the ball was in the air. They call the tugs, just like they did with Pop Douglas. And Kyle Dugger should have been called for a trip. ... Jaylinn Hawkins rarely shows up on film.
THREE UP
DT Davon Godchaux: This is twice in the past three games where the big fella has been terrific and impactful.
DT Jacquelin Roy: Very strong with a sack and very good play against the run.
DE Keion White: Led the team with three QB pressures. He saved the Patriots from a huge play when he hit Stroud as he released the ball.
THREE DOWN
LB Jahlani Tavai: In what has been a theme since he's been here, Tavai has a tough time against the faster teams with athletic offensive lines. That's the Texans.
LB Raekwon McMillan: It would surprise me if he's not going to the bench this week.
CB Jonathan Jones: Jones is normally one of the fastest guys on the field, but he couldn't keep up with Tank Dell.
