It’s the middle of October and the world champs are ready for another serious run at a title. They look pretty good after a few preseason games, and I can honestly say I haven't seen a hint of regression from anyone. This is a team that looks locked in and ready for this next run.
So of course the biggest thing we’re focused on is the race for essentially the last spot in the rotation.
Who, we are all wondering, will win that last spot to get a bunch of DNP-CD’s but then occasionally get 15 minutes on a back-to-back or when someone sprains an ankle?
Okay, yes, I’m being glib about this. Every position matters and you never know when the winner of the race for Oshae Brissett’s minutes will get an important opportunity.
“Injuries happen and opportunities can arise,” Payton Pritchard said after Boston’s win over Toronto. “I think all of us need to take advantage of these situations just because this is how you keep growing your game and showing the world that a lot of us are capable of taking that next step and doing that. But also accepting the role that our team needs and doing the best with that to help us.”
Jordan Walsh has stepped to the forefront of this competition after four preseason games. It’s wild to say that after I wrote these words almost exactly three months ago:
“There's no way to sugarcoat this summer league for Walsh. It has been bad. Every time I thought he might bounce back, he instead went in the other direction. He’s pressing in a big way and he needs to find some zen before leaving Vegas. Maybe he needs an overnight ayahuasca journey in the desert to reset his mind. Whatever he needs to do, he should do it now.”
Maybe he finally made that journey because that Jordan Walsh was left behind in the desert and a new version of him has been on the floor in Boston.
“It feels good to have a year under my belt,” Walsh said. “I kind of know what to expect now with the season, with the team. I know how to play with the team. So I feel like that’s the biggest part going into this next year.”
There's a problem with basing determinations off preseason performances, though. As good as they might seem, the sample size is always small and prone to quirks. Take, for example, Luke Kornet’s big preseason so far. I think he looks great, and I think it shows the Celtics can start him and keep Al Horford in a bench role to preserve his minutes for the playoffs. But even Kornet admits that some weirdness has contributed to how good he’s looked.
“We had a lot of advantages on the court (against Philadelphia), so it was a little easier than we probably expected it,” he said. “Denver kind of plays a pretty unique way, and it was a little different.”
So on one hand, Kornet did great in these situations. On the other, Denver was leaving him and blitzing the ball handlers while the Sixers started Guerschon Yabusele at center. That kind of takes some of the starch out of these arguments.
So when I look at Walsh and think his shot looks better, it’s because I saw him hit three in rapid succession and, after that disaster of a summer league, him shooting 6-16 (and 4-7 at home) from 3 feels like a big step forward.
And, to be fair, the shot does look good.
It doesn’t look a ton different, but the biggest issue he was having before was balance and how he was releasing the ball. It came off his hands inconsistently, so some slightly improved footwork and balance plus a a more consistent release seems to be paying off.
It’s still only 16 shots, and he’s still only shooting 37.5% this preseason, and it’s buoyed by a quick 3-3 stretch against a bunch of guys the Sixers are about to cut. What we don’t know is how practices have been going, which is a bigger determining factor in this land of small sample sizes.
What we do know is that Lonnie Walker hasn’t been scrimmaging much. This quote from him after the Saturday game kind of blew me away:
“This is really my first time getting my feet wet as far as playing with the team, as far as even getting reps in general. Even with the practice runs, I've been with the other guys, with Ron Harper and everyone doing our own thing. So this is my first time playing with Payton and all the other guys and stuff. So really just figuring out on the fly trying to find where my comfort zone is.”
His weekend performances dragged me back into thinking Walker might still have a shot on this roster, but I’m also having a hard time believing a guy who hasn’t been included in any practice runs and who doesn’t even have a locker at the Garden will truly supplant someone on the team.
I want to think the guy with real NBA experience who can score in different ways fits on this team. And there is a way to do it if they move Jaden Springer, who very clearly frustrated the hell out of Joe Mazzulla on Sunday. Springer hasn’t done enough to warrant a trade-for-nothing kind of deal, but his stock has certainly dropped over these four games.
I just spent 900 words explaining why all these success stories need to be taken with a grain of salt because of quirks with the competition. How is it that Springer isn’t experiencing the same kinds of success? He didn’t even play against Philadelphia.
He has, though, hit 3-6 from 3, which is less than half the insignificant sample size of Walsh’s but hitting shots is better than missing them. And honestly, when he’s focused on defending well, it’s hard to find someone better on the ball.
All of this makes the final call on this position kind of difficult. Walsh has separated himself a bit, which would be great news for Brad Stevens. He could have undrafted Sam Hauser and second-round pick Jordan Walsh making contributions to this team. It’s hard to get that kind of production out of those spots, never mind hit on them in two of your four drafts.
Springer is essentially a second-round pick for them because that's what it cost to get him. After all this, I feel like he’s going to get the nod over Walker because his contract is guaranteed and Walker’s isn’t. This lets Boston go the usual Exhibit 10 route with him and let him work through the G League process before maybe joining the team later. Springer will have time to do the same if he needs to, and Boston will just move forward with the original plan. If Walker gets plucked from the Maine Celtics along the way, so be it.
It’s a long way from what I thought the Walker signing was going to be, but I can’t find a way out of it that makes more sense than this. The signs point me in this direction, no matter how much I thought it could be something different. If Walsh can slide into some minutes here and there like Brissett did and make a positive impact, then the other stuff doesn’t matter much anyway.
