Bedard: What should be the expectations for Drake Maye as he makes his first start?

Whether this was part of the plan or just flat-out desperation from a coaching staff, front office and ownership reeling from a 1-4 start to the season, the moment has arrived: third overall pick Drake Maye will start his first NFL game today against the Texans.

How we got here, whether it was a misstep or not, if this was the wrong opponent and the timing was off is moot at this point. Jerod Mayo has made his decision, and now the Maye show starts.

"Good week of practice," Mayo said on Friday. "I thought Drake went out there and performed well overall. Look, we’ve got to wait and see if it happens in the game, but he's done a good job. I feel like there's a renewed sense of energy throughout the team, and now it just comes down to Sunday, going out there and executing.

"I mean, you can feel it, first of all, before you even see anything. You can just feel the guys are locked in and ready to go. Those guys are running back to the huddle and just ready for the next rep, so it's encouraging."

Mayo's right, that his encouraging. But not really unexpected. The offense is one of the worst in the league. The passing offense has been terrible. Anytime there's a QB switch on a losing team, especially going to a young and talented passer, there's going to be a bump. Will it be more than a sugar high, and be sustainable for 70 plays and multiple games? That's the question.

I'm sure you've heard by now that the Texans are not a good matchup for a young quarterback and a fledgling offense. Houston's defense is third in DVOA - fifth against the run and pass (don't ask me how that happens). 

The Texans are only allowing a 51.7 completion percentage (best in the league), have a sack rate of 9.3% and are blitzing 28.2% overall. Their pressure rate of 35.8% is 13th in the league. Houston's 55 QB knockdowns (sacks and hits) - 11 per game - rank 7th among teams with 5 games played.

You definitely want to pass against the Texans on first down, where the blitz rate is just 17.6% and the passer rating allowed is 107.1.

You want to avoid third down at all costs: 40.9% completions, 15.4% sack rate and 41.1% blitz rate. 

Houston is normally a 28% man team, but that climbs to 53% on third down. They are a heavy Cover 3 on first and second downs.

Did we mention (a potentially concussed) Josh Allen completed just 9 of 30 passes against the Texans last week?

So what does all this mean for Maye?

Expectations should be low. From what we know about Maye - he's an elite athlete with a big arm and very good speed - he's going to make some plays. He's a bit of a gunslinger, so he's going to throw into windows Jacoby Brissett chose not to. Maye's going to rip some throws in there. He's definitely going to have a few big runs.

That should be the expectation. And that would be fine. I don't think he's going to be a trainwreck. Yeah, he'll probably throw a few to the other team. That's also fine. You really just want Maye to show he belongs, which I definitely expect, and that the moment isn't too big for him. I love his demeanor, his coolness, his ability to be resilient. I don't worry about him being a puddle, even if he's under assault. He may be young, but he can handle himself.

Really, this is all about Maye making steady progress for the rest of the season. There will be times he takes a step back, and some really rough games, but that's part of the young QB experience. And it will be fine.

It's incumbent on Alex Van Pelt to recognize what Maye can and can't do, and stick with what he can do. If that means more shotgun and RPOs in the short term, that's fine. What Maye is capable of on Sunday has no bearing on what he'll be five years out.

Josh McDaniels had an interesting discussion with Julian Edelman during training camp about bringing along young quarterbacks. The "bucket" plan is important and something, hopefully, Van Pelt embraces.

"I think you have to have a plan, you know, and that obviously starts from the head coach, his perspective," McDaniels said. "And you have to, you know, be able to agree on how you're going to kind of unveil that plan to the player and ultimately bring him along. You were a young player that needed to make progress every step of the way. Yeah, and this is no different. It's just there's so much notoriety and so much attention on the quarterback position. So if they're not talking about your arm angle, they're talking about your footwork. If they're not talking about that, they're talking about your eyes or your read or how you navigated the pocket. And there's a lot of things that go into playing it well, but I, at the end of the day, I think you got to take the player where he's at, when he comes in, whether that was Cassel or Garoppolo or Stidham or Brissett or Mac, Aiden O'Connell, like you got to take the player where he's at. They're all at different spots. They all have been taught different things. They've all digested different amounts of information. 

"You just got to figure out, all right, what do they know? And what do I? What am I going to try to push forward, to get him to progress the quickest. ... ... There's a lot of things that go into it, but I think it's just having a really good feel for where's the player at. You can't just keep throwing stuff at him. I always talk about it ... they have a bucket. You guys all had a bucket, and yours was a big bucket at the end, like you could handle whatever we gave you. Well, when you take a young quarterback, it's more like a cup, you know? You got to put some stuff in his cup, and when it gets to the top, you got to stop, you know what I mean? And then make sure he can do it well. And then, okay, so then when he's ready for more, then you get him a bigger cup. And then hopefully he ends up with a bucket, and you got a bunch of stuff in there that you can do well. But there's no shortcut. there's no shortcut to it and I think knowing where the player's at is really important."

What's in Maye's cup at this point? Van Pelt should have a good idea, probably in conjunction with Ben McAdoo who has been working with Maye a lot, what concepts Maye is comfortable with, what routes he likes to throw, what are the run concepts he likes, and start there. Even if it's not voluminous, a good schemer and playcaller can dress up simple concepts many different ways, through formation and personnel, to make it look different to the defense. You have to have a good starting point, and then slowly expand.

This might be a run-around game for him - he was quick to run against the Jets and that was the book on him in college - but that's fine as well (I don't want him to pass up open receivers for runs - he's here to play QB) because some athletic quarterbacks don't settle down until they get to run around a little bit. I hope he has worked through some of his footwork issues (when he gets sloppy, his heels almost clicky-clack together as he climbs the pocket and he doesn't throw from a good platform). Tightening his long motion will happen over time, but I'm a little worried against starting DBs that it could be an issue early. Definitely don't want him to look at the rush, which is the kiss of death for a young quarterback. Hopefully Van Pelt puts a premium on protecting Maye and not just running five out in a route because that's what he believes in for his scheme.

This is a tough opponent and a tough open. But I don't think Maye has much to lose (you know, aside from injury). Make a few plays, produce a couple touchdowns and everyone will be happy. Anything more than that is gravy.

Maye has a long way to go to be the QB everyone envisions, and this is just the first step.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. The Patriots may get some unexpected help at some point, as Jerod Mayo said Christian Barmore's return from bloodclots is now more realistic that it was in August.

“He’s progressing,” Mayo said. “He still has some checkpoints or hurdles to get over, but he’s progressing well.”

2. Mayo also seemed to indicate that Cole Strange is getting closer.

“He’s starting to look like an NFL player,” Mayo said. “He’s getting better. We’ll see what happens as we go forward.”

Could Strange move to center?

“One hundred percent,” Mayo said. “I mean, any of those interior spots. He can play guard, he can play center, and we have to get the best person out there. I think he has the ability, the physical tools to be able to do it.”

Mayo did say Strange hasn't taken snaps at center, even in practice. But that's not really important to whether he can actually play there for the Patriots - it's going to be mental. There's no doubt Strange has the physical skills to play center (it was the position I thought suited him best in my draft evaluation due to his elite athleticism for the position that would be perfect for the zone-blocking scheme. Can he handle all this scheme puts on the center? That's something they can assess in the VR simulators.

3. Patriots defensive line coach Jerry Montgomery agreed Keion White needs to be a smarter going forward, including on the non-flagged two-point conversion drilling of Snoop Huntley.

"The one with the quarterback, his strike zone just got to be low. We know we can't be close to the head. They'll call it every time," Montgomery said. "Emphasized strike zone, and talked about it a lot this week, but the kid got to the quarterback. He's just got to stay below the hit for me.

"Yeah, pretty hard (on the two-point conversion). That'd be another one where, you're tackling the quarterback. We got to really kind of fall off to the side or not put all the weight on it. But yeah, it's been emphasized, been talked about, and that was addressed."

4. Some good reviews for Christian Gonzalez this week.

"Just seeing him, his instincts showing up, his ability to make plays on the football, you can see him leading a lot of one-on-one matchups,” Texans coach Demeco Ryans told reporters on Wednesday. “He’s doing a really good job.”

And this from Tyreek Hill:

5. Give the guy playing Gronk in American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez, all the Emmys (the guy playing Bill Belichick is pretty good too - Bob Kraft, not so much).

And Gronk ... has stunt doubles?

BEDARD'S PICK

Season: 2-2-1 spread, 3-2 straight up.

Line: Texans -6.5, 37.5 over/under.

The Patriots are definitely getting a break not having to face Nico Collins, the NFL's most productive receiver and CJ Stroud's favorite target. New England is also a bit of a trap game for Houston after beating the Bills and before Houston travels to Green Bay.

But Stroud is just too good, and I expect Houston to take to the ground a bit more, which has been an issue for New England at times. And the speed of this Texans defensive scheme, and their creativity on third down, is going to lead to some issues. But this game could be closer than most (and I) think: Houston is 1-4 against the spread this season. They haven't won a game by more than six points, and that was Caleb Williams and the Bears. As good as Stroud is, it's really the defense that makes this team - and losing Collins isn't going to help.

Texans 27, Patriots 17.