Al Horford certainly has been part of Boston’s preparation for the upcoming season. He’s healthy and he’s been on the practice floor, but he didn’t play in the first two preseason games and, with three games in four nights starting on Saturday, he won’t play in all of the remaining games ahead of the regular season.
“Just ramping him up,” Joe Mazzulla said Thursday after the team’s first official practice since returning from Abu Dhabi. “He'll definitely play in one of them, maybe two, just kind of ramping him up and making sure he stays sharp. That's all.”
Horford doesn’t need much to stay sharp. At 38 years old and heading into his seventh season with Boston (albeit with a brief detour in the middle), he’s as plug-and-play as it gets. So there might not be much to read into his sitting for most of the preseason schedule.
At the same time, consistency matters. And for Horford, so does making sure he’s ready for another healthy, full season and deep playoff run. Keeping Horford in a sixth-man role, even as the Celtics wait for Kristaps Porzingis to return, might make some sense.
“Obviously, he's been great for us both coming off the bench and starting, and so we just have to make that decision, whatever we think is best for the team,” Mazzulla said. “And it's a credit to him that he's open-minded enough to know that. He'll just do whatever's best for the team.”
The Celtics are deep enough to make either decision work. Luke Kornet started both games in Abu Dhabi and played well. With so much talent on the floor surrounding him, Kornet simply has to do the same little things he’s been doing effectively, and the Celtics offense will be fine. Defensively, he’ll offer some rim protection but less versatility, which might also be fine considering the alternative of asking Horford to switch a lot early in the season.
The biggest thing to consider in this situation is that Porzingis looks and feels good already and is gearing up for a potential return in December. Whatever decision is made now is temporary. Whatever decision Mazzulla makes will last for about a quarter of the season.
So there is an argument to be made that keeping Horford consistent for 100% of the year. A starting unit of Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown is more than capable of winning a lot of games with Kornet starting. Last season, four of the five most-used Luke Kornet units were overwhelmingly positive, though mostly in fairly limited possessions. A fifth lineup, double-big with Horford, was not good, but that doesn’t apply here.
The bad news is that the only combination of Kornet with the starters from last season didn’t go well. It’s only 38 possessions, which works out to be about a game and a half, but it was still a -12.8. It’s impossible to gather anything from that number other than an understanding that sometimes it won’t work, which is fine. The Celtics have plenty of options when Kornet has an inevitable bad game.
The first option is to just sub Horford in earlier than expected. Starting someone doesn’t bind that player to any amount of minutes. The Celtics could foul someone after the opening tip and sub Horford in after a few seconds if they wanted, so if Kornet has a rough night, he can be parked on the bench. The Celtics could also go to Xavier Tillman and/or Neemias Queta, both of whom will get a fair share of minutes regardless.
An argument against this might be that Kornet and Porzingis play very differently, while Horford is a similar stretch big who can keep some stylistic consistency. And that's a fair argument, but the counter is that Horford will sit out back-to-backs, so there will be four games where someone else will be starting no matter what.
The other argument is that Horford is the better player and the Celtics should just roll with the best lineup until Porzingis get back. That's also very obviously a fair argument to make. And it might be where the Celtics settle. Whenever Porzingis returns, the Celtics can give Horford a bit of a break and strategically rest him in order to get him back to 100%. There's nothing wrong with starting Horford but holding him to 25 minutes, making use of Kornet, Tillman, and Queta to eat up the remaining minutes. This is the plan I expected heading into camp, so this being how the season starts makes sense.
That said, managing Horford’s minutes might be easier off the bench, and the substitution pattern can be such that Horford is still finishing games. Starting with Kornet doesn’t mean ending with him, so using him as a connective tissue guy to support four elite starters and giving Horford the final four or five minutes works just fine.
The more I think about it, the more I warm up to the idea. Kornet can still score off lobs, dump-offs, and offensive rebounds. He’s there to set screens, get the defense’s attention in the paint, and make the right passes, and he can do all those things well.
I like Horford working with Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard. Last season, a lineup with those three along with Holiday and Tatum was +9.4 in 193 possessions. I like the Celtics being able to manage Horford’s minutes without being too disruptive to the starting lineup.
There's a case to be made to start the season with Kornet in the starting lineup. I like the idea, and it seems Horford is open to it. Going with Kornet in October, November, and December might be the best way to make sure Horford is still at his best when it matters most in April, May, and June.