Through the season's first two weeks, the Patriots offense had one thing going for them - the running game. That battered the Bengals in week one for 170 yards in a surprising (at the time) 16-10 win. A week later, that ground-and-pound attack accounted for 185 yards and had the Pats within a whisker of knocking off the Seahawks.
So, the answer on a short week in New Jersey against the Jets was evident, especially considering New York's inability to stop the run dating back to the beginning of last year. Instead, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt decided that was too obvious and tried a pass-first approach that predictably fell flat on its face. Faced with a negative game script, the run game became an afterthought in an ugly 24-3 loss. Lesson learned?
"You learn every game," said Van Pelt Thursday. "Last week, I said earlier I should maybe have stuck with the run harder earlier. That's something I'll grow from and get better from."
That's magic to the ears of his top two backs, Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. Like some of the offensive linemen, the backs were surprised at the approach against the Jets, feeling like they got away from what gave them their best chance to be successful.
"In a sense, I do," Stevenson told me. "Our identity is, you know, being a tough, physical football team, and I feel we didn't really get the chance to show that last week. It's early in the season, though. We all - I wouldn't call it a mistake - but we all have lessons to learn throughout the season. So I think that was one."
"Definitely," added Gibson. "You saw it. I think there were 11 carries between me and 'Mondre (Stevenson had 6, Gibson 5). But we're not going to blame that on why we lost. We didn't execute the stuff we were supposed to execute. ... So, running the ball or not, we have to execute what coach call up."
While neither back would spill the beans about the game plan this week, the sense I'm getting is that while Van Pelt has a couple new wrinkles for the passing game, he's recommitted to returning to the physicality that this offense needs to be defined by. When you consider the 49ers' defense has struggled against duo runs through the first three weeks of the season, and that's what the Pats' run game has done best, there is a path for moving the football and staying in the game.
"Yeah, I think that's the recipe for success for us," said Stevenson. "Just control the line of scrimmage. We put a lot of confidence in our guys up front to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage. So, I think we'll get back to it."
BELIEVE IN THE BILLS?
It turns out reports of the Buffalo Bills' demise were premature. Sean McDermott's team is off to a 3-0 start after that molly-whopping of the Jacksonville Jaguars Monday night.
Unsurprisingly, Josh Allen is driving this train. He had a virtuoso performance against the Jags, leading the Bills to 34 first-half points. Allen made the right decisions, threw nearly flawlessly, and spread the ball around, completing passes to 10 receivers.
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady had Allen thinking differently when he took over for Ken Dorsey mid-season a year ago. Brady wanted to balance the Bills offense, relying a little more on the run game while slowly phasing Stefon Diggs out of the plan. With Diggs out of the picture this year, the offense has gone to a higher level, averaging 37 points per game, and Allen has thrown seven touchdown passes to six different pass catchers.
"It's paying dividends of what we've worked on through the entire offseason and through training camp of the 'everybody eats' mentality," Allen said. "It could be your play this play. You never know when it's going to happen. That's the beauty of it when guys buy into this and really understand, like, 'I may not get the ball four or five times thrown to me a game, but the one or two times I do, I'm going to have opportunities to be in the end zone."
This offensive success hasn't come without a bit of drama this week. Some interpreted Allen's comments as a shot at Diggs. The talented wideout had become a malcontent even before his targets were reduced - who can forget his meltdown after their home playoff loss to Cincinnati? - and it was clear that anything less than 150 targets per season wouldn't be acceptable for Diggs. Thus, GM Brandon Beane shipped him to Houston this off-season for a second-round pick, perhaps emboldened by the Chiefs' success without Tyreek Hill. Yes, that means more weight on Allen, but he's been able to handle it so far while also handling the press mid-week, shooting down the chatter.
"I know there's a lot of people talking out there," he said. "I'm not trying to tear down anybody. I've loved everybody I've played with. ... I love 14 (Diggs' number), and I still do. But everyone wants to keep making this thing a thing. We're so focused on what's going on inside of our building and that's the only thing we're caring about right now."
The Bills visit Baltimore and the Ravens on Sunday. Then, they are in Houston the following weekend, followed by a Monday nighter in New York against the Jets. That's a rough road and will challenge the philosophy shift and personnel.
"You don't win a Super Bowl or get in the playoffs with only three games," said Allen. "I think this team understands that. We'll watch this film (of the win over the Jags) and put this behind us as quickly as we can."
BUMBLING BENGALS
Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense had seven possessions Monday against the Commanders, scoring four touchdowns, kicking two field goals, and missing another. There was not a single punt. And yet, Burrow and his bleached blonde head walked off the field 0-3, falling 38-33 to fellow LSU alum Jayden Daniels. How did that happen?
Cincinnati's defense made Washington look stouter than a Guinness. They, too, didn't force a punt, surrendering five touchdowns and a field goal on non-kneel-down possessions. This is unacceptable for a team that fielded one of the better defenses during their recent return to relevancy.
"Our defense will be better," said linebacker Logan Wilson. "We have to be. It sucks."
"It was not a good performance," said defensive end Sam Hubbard. "Not what we expected. Not reflective of who we want to be as a defense."
Bengals cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt made news leading up to the game by saying the Commanders have a "nice college offense" and "they keep it really simple" for Daniels. Daniels shredded Taylor-Britt and company like the mozzarella you put on the top of your pizza, completing 21 of 23 passes (91%) for 254 yards and two touchdowns. To his credit, the young defensive back stood there and owned it post-game, but head coach Zac Taylor expressed his disappointment in those comments.
"That's not what we do," he said. "We praise our own team, praise the other team. We don't need to take shots like that."
Obviously, the Bengals are now up against it. From 1990-2023, only four of 162 teams that started 0-3 made the playoffs. So you're saying there's a chance? Yes, a very slim one. It starts Sunday at Carolina.
ARE YOU WATCHING?
Daniels may be having a hell of a good time through the first three weeks, but the man who went one pick before him in the draft (#1 overall), Caleb Williams, is finding out that life in the NFL for a kid quarterback is unpleasant at best and painful at worst.
Williams threw the ball 52 times in Sunday's loss to the Colts, and while he surpassed well over 300 yards passing, this was not the plan in Chicago. Bears GM Ryan Poles insisted this was the organization's best offensive line in years, and they invested plenty of money in free agent running back D'Andre Swift to take some of the heat off Williams. Instead, the running game has been the league's worst, averaging 2.3 yards per carry (Swift's at 1.8). That's hard to do, people. Very hard.
"So like I said on Sunday after the game, whatever it takes to win the game is what I'm going to do and what I'm happy to do," said Williams this week. "It's what I'm here to do is win games, so we've got it going, got to get the offense going, got to get the run game going, I've got to be better with not turning the ball over and a lot more. We're going to be better."
Perhaps, but without the ability to run the ball, Williams is being asked to do far more than any rookie should. He's thrown four interceptions (to just two TDs), been sacked 13 times (the third-highest total in the league), and been under pressure on nearly a third of his dropbacks. That is not a recipe for long-term success or Williams' health.
Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was brought over from Seattle this off-season, and saying he's been a disappointment would be an understatement. Waldron's been slow to adjust, and his play-calling has been dissected, especially his fourth-and-goal decision from the one-yard line Sunday. If you missed it, the Bears had called three runs prior, then dusted off a speed option to the short side of the field. It predictably went poorly.
"Shane and I watched the tape at 6:30 this morning, and we talked that through," said head coach Matt Eberflus. "That's gotta be a better call and a better matchup there."
I can't disagree, but let's not act like Eberflus shouldn't catch his share of blame. He hired Waldron, knowing full well they were drafting Williams. Waldron is on his resume, just as fired OC Luke Getsy was before him (who failed to develop Justin Fields). At some point, if Waldron fails, so does Eberflus. And you know what that means...a new head coach.
CREDIT WHERE IT'S DUE
I've never been an overwhelming fan of Matt LaFleur, but I'm currently reconsidering my stance. LaFleur's regular season record has been undeniable, and his work in developing Jordan Love from raw prospect to franchise quarterback is the kind of work that will almost assuredly get him another head coaching job whenever his lease on that gig in Green Bay runs out. But it's what LaFleur has done with Malik Willis and this offense over the last two weeks that has swayed me.
A 2022 third-round pick of the Tennessee Titans, Willis quickly fell out of favor. He struggled to process, wasn't nearly accurate enough, and was once benched in a preseason game by Mike Vrabel. Yes, a preseason game. The Titans were likely to cut him, but the Packers were disheartened by their backups this summer and swung a trade for Willis, sacrificing a late-round pick. The deal was a head-scratcher. What could Green Bay have seen that no one else did? Turns out, everything.
In his first start for the injured Love, Willis wasn't asked to do much in the way of the passing game, throwing the ball just 14 times. But LaFleur built a potent rushing attack around him. The Pack rushed for 261 yards in a 16-10 win over the Colts. The former Liberty star got another chance this past weekend, this time against his former team. Willis threw for 202 yards and a score and ran for another 73 and another TD in a 30-14 victory.
"I just cannot articulate the job that he's done in this short period of time," LaFleur said. "People can't fathom it. I promise you, you guys don't get it. I know you think you got it, but you don't get it. What he's been able to do, I've never seen something like this."
LaFleur deflected questions about his responsibility in Willis' star turn, crediting quarterback coach Tom Clements and his assistants for getting the quarterback ready.
But his opponent this weekend, Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores, was not shy in his praise for the 5th-year head coach.
"We certainly got one of the best coming up as far as offensive coordinators," Flores told reporters. "I've had my share of tough days against LeFleur and his offenses dating back to when he was in Tennessee. Had a tough day then a few years back, and, quite honestly, we have to do everything we can to stay ahead of a guy like Matt.
"I don't think he's being talked about enough (about) what's going on over there with Malik Willis. I think for Matt to go in his bag and be a West Coast guy and then turn around, and he's got this whole zone read, RPO, counter read, I mean, that's pretty impressive."
Flores acknowledged that LaFleur has had some pretty good tools to work with — Aaron Rodgers, then Love — but this brief stretch with Willis is the icing on the cake.
"The adaptability to me is [impressive]," Flores wrote. "I learned a long time ago, great coaches are able to adapt. There's so many injuries in the National Football League. This is going back [to his time in New England with] Bill Belichick; there's so many injuries that you have to be able to coach and play at a high level regardless of what the situation is."
If LaFleur can outwit and outlast Flores and the Vikings Sunday, likely with Love back under center (though certainly not 100%), how do I not go full mea culpa and give that man his flowers?
NERD NUMBERS
- Jacoby Brissett is averaging 5.3 yds/att in 2024. That's 28th among 31 qualified QBs.
- Flores' Vikings defense has 16 sacks (5.3 per game) in 2024 (most in NFL). No team has averaged 5 sacks over an entire season (NFL record: 4.8 by 1967 OAK).
- Week 4 at LAC will be Patrick Mahomes' 100th career game (and start). Mahomes has the record for the most QB wins since 1950 (77 wins, one more than Tom Brady and Roger Staubach), passing yards, pass TD, and games of 300+ pass yards in a player's first 100 career games.
- The 2024 Jaguars are the 4th team in NFL history to allow 85+ points and have 0 takeaways in the first 3 games of a season. The others are the 2023 Giants, the 2020 Texans, and the 1998 Lions. None of these teams won more than 6 games that season. Paging a new head coach, part one.
- Trevor Lawrence is averaging 186.7 pass YPG, has thrown 2 TDs, 1 INT, and has a 75.1 passer rating. That's the fewest passing YPG and TDs in the first 3 games of a season in his career. The only qualified QBs with fewer TDs than Lawrence in 2024 are Bryce Young (0), Bo Nix (0), and Brissett (1). Paging a new head coach, part two.