CINCINNATI — Normally in this space, on the day of the season opener, I have some grand thoughts about the state of the Patriots. Of course, with the change on the sidelines, this is a season we haven't seen in decades. It's a completely blank chalkboard. New head coach, new coordinators, new general manager, three new quarterbacks.
If I told you I had a good grasp of what was going to happen, I'd be lying to you. And I don't do that - for better or worse.
What I can tell you is a mixture of things I believe will or won't transpire. Part confidence and worry list. Part thinking out loud. Oh, and you'll get my final prediction for the Patriots' record - and when the wins will happen.
Let's start with the men in charge of the on-field product...
COACHING
I do think Jerod Mayo is going to have a positive influence on this team. This isn't quite going from Bill Parcells to Pete Carroll in terms of vibes and player empowerment, but it's an easy comparison and joke to make. I think Mayo is a lot more demanding than Carroll was in his early years, and I think he's going to strike the right balance between easing off the players and demanding more from them. Do I like that he's in this position now, or how he got the job? No. But it was time for a change and Mayo is Robert Kraft's guy, at least for right now. Mayo will be fine. Not terrible. Could end up being a bridge to something greater.
I have zero problem with Mayo calling Alex Van Pelt the head coach of the offense. I mean, what the hell does Mayo know about offense or quarterbacks? At least he's smart enough to know what he doesn't know.
I think the offensive coaching is going to be better than you think. Van Pelt has been through it all, as a player and a coach. Who cares if he's getting his first real shot in his 50s? People can slip through the cracks. Now, do I think you're going to be blown away by his scheme and creativity? No, I do not. He has some really nice route concepts, but it's pretty old school West Coast. And if the ground game isn't clicking, he's not the kind of coordinator who will invent yards out of thin air. The complaining about the lack of creativity will start after the first game ... maybe the second.
But Van Pelt is the right guy to train up Drake Maye, give him the foundation he needs to grow into a franchise quarterback. And that should be Job 1 for the entire organization. Van Pelt knows QBs, and his demeanor for developing players is outstanding. Ben McAdoo is an asset. I think by the middle of the season, you'll be impressed with the work of offensive line coaches Scott Peters and Robert Kugler. TEs coach Bob Bicknell is an excellent coach. The rest? I'm not sure about.
I worry that defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington is going to be too aggressive. It might work early when teams are figuring some things out, but once more film is out there, I worry about his blitzes getting exposed. I also have a lot of concerns about the run defense. And, I'm sorry, you can't just take two of the players closest to being blue chips off the roster (Matthew Judon and Christian Barmore) and just expect to be a great defense. I worry greatly about the interior run defense. I think the defense's performance last year was a bit overrated due to the QBs faced. That changes this year: the Patriots have the hardest schedule by quality of QBs this season.
I have no idea what's going to happen on special teams, not that I'm really worried about that.
PERSONNEL
Obviously it's not great in spots, and depth is definitely an issue. But I don't think it's as dire as people make it out to be when you admit the hole Eliot Wolf started in, and you can't fix everything in one offseason. In fact, you don't want to do that. That's the surest way to stay mired in a rut of suck.
If you want to build a monster, it has to be through the draft. They got the quarterback. At least one good receiver. Possibly two good offensive linemen. That's a good start.
Get the next tackle next year. Use your $90 million in cap space in 2025 to address the holes that are obvious during this season.
Wolf whiffed trading up into the second round for a tackle to give themselves a chance. But their thinking in signing Chuks Okorafor to play left tackle instead of Jonah Williams was sound - if Okorafor doesn't flake on them. He can be a solid stopgap at left tackle. Vederian Lowe was coming on before being injured. Okorafor/Lowe, Sidy Sow/Cole Strange, David Andrews, Layden Robinson/Mike Onwenu, Onwenu/Caeden Wallace isn't a dumpster fire, I don't think. Yeah, it could be ugly at times early, but I agree with Wolf that they do have some solid pieces to get the job done.
A No. 1 receiver is the obvious other glaring need. Wolf gave it a go, but it just happened the two players available didn't want to leave the south (Calvin Ridley) and the other never wanted to leave his team and didn't (Brandon Aiyuk).
The Patriots have a distinct lack of blue chip players anywhere right now, and just can't buy them all. They re-signed their best, looks like they hit on Maye and Polk. That's a start. It's going to be a few years before they're on par with the most talented teams in the league, but you can still win in the interim. And I think they will next year.
QUARTERBACK
Brissett is the right guy to be here and starting right now, but prepare to be underwhelmed. He'll make a few plays, but you'll also be screaming at the screen for him to get rid of the ball and not take any more sacks.
I think Mayo will be pretty frustrated by Brissett in short order. He's a lot like Brian Hoyer: smart, great team guy, looks good in practice and you can talk yourself into him being ok based on some of his previous stints. But as soon as things get off schedule ... look out.
I expect to see Maye before the midpoint of the season, mostly because Brissett's below-average play will leave Mayo with no other choice. I don't love that. I want to sit him as long as possible. I don't give a crap about this season, sorry. And I don't give a crap about the entertainment factor either. I want Maye on the Patrick Mahomes Plan. Sure, I wish Brissett was as good as Alex Smith but he's not. And Kirk Cousins or Baker Mayfield weren't the right guys to a) spend the assets on while drafting the third overall pick, and b) not the right ego fits for this situation.
But Maye has revealed himself to be very smart, and his improvement has been dramatic in recent weeks. Better yet, I love his steady demeanor. I think the chances of him seizing up like Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson are very low. He can handle the heat and pounding. That's why I'm no longer opposed to him starting sooner rather than later.
But, still, I'd love it if the Patriots and Brissett were good enough to keep Maye in the garage for a long while.
I just don't think that's going to happen.
PREDICTION
6-11, 1-5 in the AFC East.
Wins:
- Week 2 vs. Seattle
- Week 5 vs. Dolphins (in what could be Maye's first start)
- Week 9 at Titans
- Week 11 vs. Rams (1 p.m. for a West Coast team is not good)
- Week 13 vs. Colts
- Week 17 vs. Chargers (could be another 1 p.m. game)
I do not rule out the Patriots beating the Bengals, but I think a split of the first two would be good.
I have the Patriots 2-6 going to Nashville, so that could be another spot for Maye's first start. Week 9 would be more to my liking.
I also have the Patriots with the sixth pick in the 2025 Draft. Not a terrible spot to be in. Joe Alt went 5th, Malik Nabers 6th, JC Latham 7 and Olu Fashanu 11th. Not bad.
Gotta hit those lottery picks out of the park when you have a chance, however. That's the only way out of this - not by playing fantasy football.