A question I received during this week’s Boston Sports Journal Live Q&A got me thinking.
As BSJ member loudenswain234 asks, “Hi GC - silly crystal ball exercise. On Labor Day are the Red Sox in a WC position or on the outside looking in?”
A good question, indeed.
Now, I generally prefer to be reactive in my commentary and don’t love dabbling into the world of predictions. Because I know for a fact what has already happened, and if something has happened that I don’t think is good for the team, I’ll certainly let you know about it.
Yet predicting the future is always a crapshoot. You just never know what’s going to happen, especially in sports. But it’s something that comes with the territory
Entering Saturday’s game in Texas, the Red Sox have 52 games and 16 full series left in their 162-game marathon. That’s certainly not an insignificant chunk of baseball — about 30 percent of the schedule.
Unfortunately, it’s not a particularly easy schedule...
The Sox’ will face AL East rival Baltimore seven times, Toronto seven times, Tampa Bay, the Houston Astros six times, Texas and the New York Yankees four more times, and Kansas City, the New York Mets, Arizona, Detroit, Minnesota and the Chicago White Sox for three more games each.
Of those 12 opponents, only the Rangers, White Sox, Blue Jays and Tigers do not have winning records. Boston will play those teams a total of 17 times down the stretch run. That leaves 35 games — nearly 70 percent of the remaining schedule — against opponents currently above .500.
You’re going to win some games you shouldn’t and lose some games you shouldn’t. That’s just the nature of the beast.
But given that the Sox have been able to beat up on inferior opponents, for the most part, this season, let’s assume they’ll be able to take care of business in those 17 games against losing teams. To be conservative, let’s say they go 5-2 against Toronto, 3-1 against Texas, and 2-1 against the White Sox and Tigers. That’s 12-5.
Now, in the 35 games against good opponents, it’s certainly not realistic to suggest they’re going to win every series. They’ll win some of ‘em, but definitely not all. Even I feel pretty confident in predicting that…
The likeliest outcome for the Sox is that they’ll probably go somewhere in the range of .500 against those eight teams. That being the case, we’re looking at something like 18-17, 17-18 — could be as high as 20 or 22 wins, maybe as low as 12, nobody really knows.
But for the purposes of this exercise, let’s say they post a winning record at 18-17. So it’s 18 wins against good teams, 12 wins against bad steams, and 22 losses. All told, that’s 30-22 from today until the end of the season. I’d say that’s realistic.
That would put the Sox at 88 wins. Looking at the last teams to get into the AL playoffs over the past two seasons since the third wild card was implemented: Toronto got in with 89, Tampa with 86. That’s squarely within the conservative range I’ve projected for the Sox.
So there you have it. If the Sox can win roughly 58 percent of their remaining games, they’re going to give themselves a pretty good chance to get in. Of course, they could make life much easier on themselves by winning more than that…
Sogard comes out swinging
Nick Sogard’s promotion to the major league was pretty unceremonious.
The 26-year-old infielder was got the call to the big leagues following the trade deadline and was on the roster for Wednesday’s series finale against Seattle, but didn’t get into the game.
On Friday, the former 12th-round pick of Tampa Bay in 2019 who was acquired by Boston in the 2021 deal that sent Jeffrey Springs to the Rays got the start at second base against the defending World Series champion Rangers.
Wearing No. 75 and batting eighth, Sogard came out swinging in Texas.
Nick Sogard's first Major League knock is a BIG ONE. pic.twitter.com/q1gkasn5PC
— Red Sox (@RedSox) August 3, 2024
Sogard collected his first big league hit in a huge spot with Boston leading 4-3 in the fourth. Facing Rangers starter Jose Urena with a pair in scoring position, he connected on an 81 mph slider and sent it into right field for a two-run single.
“Yeah, it felt good man for sure,” Sogard told the NESN broadcast after the game. ” To come through in that spot was a good feeling.”
He reached again with a walk in the sixth and scored when Ceddanne Rafaela homered the next at-bat and struck out in his two other at-bats.
It was clear by watching him both during his big at-bat and after the game that this kid is composed.
Most players in that spot are trying to swing for the fences to collect their first big league hit, but Sogard was looking at his key fourth-inning at-bat with more of a technical approach.
“Second and third, less than two outs, the infield was in. I was kinda trying to tell myself to just touch it, and you know, put a ball in play, get guys in,” he said.
Red Sox fans and media alike had made plenty of calls for the team to elevate Nick Yorke earlier this season as Boston was searching for a serviceable second baseman. I can’t remember Sogard’s name being mentioned once — and probably because he hasn’t spent much time at the position in the minors of late.
“It felt good. I haven’t played a lot of second base this year, but throughout my life I’ve played it a bunch,” he said. “I feel comfortable there.”
With Sogard in the fold, the Sox now have a versatile infielder — and he’s a switch hitter, to boot. Here’s hoping that Craig Breslow and Alex Cora caught lightning in a bottle here…
Garcia debuts
After Lucas Sims debuted in a key spot in Wednesday’s finale against the Mariners, it was Luis Garcia’s turn to make his Red Sox debut.
The big right-hander came on in mop-up duty in the ninth inning of Friday’s 11-6 rout of Texas.
He featured a nice mix of high-velocity fastballs, sweepers and sliders. He went from 97-mph fastball to an 81-mph sweeper — a whopping 16-mph difference.
Garcia made quick work of the Rangers — throwing only seven pitches, six for strikes — to log a scoreless appearance to lower his season ERA to 3.63.
It’s been an encouraging week, for the most part, for Breslow’s trade deadline additions. While James Paxton wasn’t particularly impressive, although he wasn’t bad either, both Sims and Garcia have looked sharp in their appearances.
Speaking of Sims, he tossed 1 1/3 scoreless innings in this game before passing the baton to Garcia. Just like Garcia, Sims allowed no hits while striking out one. He throw 13 pitches, 11 for strikes.
Sharp, sharp stuff…
Kutter looks gassed
Kutter Crawford very much looks like a pitcher whose tank is on ‘E’.
For the third straight start out of the All-Star break, Crawford was… well, flat-out bad. The 28-year-old right-hander allowed at least five runs for the third consecutive outing, spotting Texas a five spot on six hits with a walk and five strikeouts.
Prior to Friday’s game, Crawford had allowed five runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 in the Saturday extra-innings loss to the Yankees last weekend. And before that, it was six runs on seven hits — and a whopping five home runs — over five in L.A.
Oh, and I buried the lede on this one… Crawford allowed four more homers in his start against the Rangers, which established a new major league record for the most homers allowed in a three-game span with 12.
Kutter Crawford
— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) August 3, 2024
Has set a MLB record with 12 HR’s allowed over a 3-game stretch
Kutter Crawford - 2024 - 12 HR
Oh wellpic.twitter.com/VfZdWKAnb7
That just isn’t going to cut it for a Red Sox team with a real shot of making it to October.
This is why pursuing a Jack Flaherty — or heck, even a Martin Perez, or any able body — would have been beneficial for the Red Sox. We’re seeing a new starter being pushed to his breaking point. And, unsurprisingly, he’s breaking.
Unless Paxton can replicate his 15-win days with the Yankees down the stretch, the heart of this Sox rotation might be very much in trouble. You’re going through the same thing with Tanner Houck, although his implosion hasn’t been as dramatic.
Then you have Brayan Bello, who has been pitching much better of late. But he’s still young and can be wildly inconsistent. Not to mention that Nick Pivetta has been doing his up-and-down thing again plenty.
Add that up and you’ve got… five volatile starters.
This could be quite the bumpy finish, folks. If these trends keep up, then the Sox are going to need a lot more 11-run outbursts like they had on Friday to make this whole thing sustainable…
Gethin Coolbaugh is a columnist for Boston Sports Journal. Follow him @GethinCoolbaugh on X/Twitter.