Newton's Third Law of Motion states that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.
What's true in nature also holds firm in football.
Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo have been busy this offseason, solidifying their core players and building blocks for the future.
Christian Barmore - $21 million AAV, $19.5 million cash in 2024
Michael Onwenu - $19 million AAV, $26 million cash in 2024
Kyle Dugger - $14.5 million AAV, $21 million cash in 2024
Rhamondre Stevenson - $9 million AAV, $11.1 million cash in 2024
Hunter Henry - $9 million AAV, $10.5 million cash in 2024
Not many would argue about the timing or the worthiness of any of the deals. They are the Patriots' best players at key positions and have played well in their tenures.
But when you start to hand out contract extensions in the NFL, the other guys in the locker room are going to react. I'm sure they are happy for their teammates, especially to their faces and publicly. But privately, the conversation either with their agent or family or both inevitably turns to: "That's great that X got his money. But what about me? I've done way more for this team (and/or in my career) than him."
It's hard to really compare salaries across positions, especially across the ball from one another. But when a contract emerges in a certain area of the field with other players close by, the discussion is going to be sparked.
The contract that has caused the most reaction around the Patriots this offseason is Christian Barmore's deal.
Four years. $84 million. $41.8 million guaranteed ($31 million fully guaranteed). $18 million signing bonus.
$19.8 million
$11.5 million
$13.5 million
$20 million
$21 million
There's little doubt Barmore is an ascending talent with his best ball ahead of him. The contract is a little rich, but that's the market.
However, it's off of really only one year of top-line production.
Last season he had 39 solo tackles, 8.5 sacks, 13 tackles for a loss, 16 QB hits, 6 passes defended, 1 forced fumble.
In his first two seasons, one in which he missed almost half the season, Barmore totaled 35 solo tackles, 4 sacks, 5 TFLs, 16 QB hits, 3 passes defended, 0 forced fumbles.
Matthew Judon is set to make $7.5 million in cash this season after averaging $15.8 million cash his previous four seasons, including his final campaign with the Ravens. He has no guaranteed money for 2024. The last time he had no guaranteed money was 2019 on his rookie Ravens deal.
In just four games last season, Judon had four sacks, 5 TFLs and 9 QB hits.
In his previous six seasons, Judon averaged 38.2 solo tackles, 9.8 sacks, 13 TFLs, 24.3 QB hits, 1.5 forced fumbles, 2 passes defensed per season.
Davon Godchaux is set to make $8.3 million cash this season after averaging $10.3 million cash in his previous two seasons. He also has zero guaranteed money, something he hasn't encountered since 2020, his final season with the Dolphins.
According to multiple league sources, the immediate reaction to Barmore's contract was that Judon and Godchaux were not going to play for the Patriots this season under their current deals. They expected their contracts to be addressed in some fashion. That was likely the case before Barmore's extension. It just ramped up the urgency a bit.
Godchaux all but confirmed that on Twitter last month:
Hopefully we can get something done that’s fair to me and my team before camp starts! I love NE, I would love to retire here but it’s has to make sense for us! What I do on the football field in the trenches most of time doesn’t show on the stat sheet but turn on the film you… https://t.co/PPH8Fvb4Ku
— Davon Godchaux (@ChauxDown) June 25, 2024
Judon issued a non-denial, denial on Twitter after my podcast comments were aggregated.
Before yall get on my ass I didn’t say that. At all don’t let them make me the villain
— Matthew Judon (@man_dammn) July 13, 2024
I never said Judon said it. And notice what he didn't say and easily could have: "I have no issue with my contract. I will be playing it out as is and look forward to free agency after the season."
No one associated with the NFL — team sources, rival teams, agents — believes Judon and Godchaux will play the entire season on their current deals.
"It is not going to happen. Book it," said one league source.
And I completely agree with the players ... well, at least Judon.
The question is, what happens next?
Judon told WZLX last month "We ain’t far apart, you feel me." But recently he responded to a tweet basically saying he didn't expect a big raise.
(Again, if there was nothing wrong with his contract, why the need for any updates?)
I think it would be smart for the Patriots to keep Judon happy and give him a bump of some kind. He could keep the base as is, but have incentives that could double his salary to $14 or $15 million. That would also allow the Patriots to possibly deal Judon at the deadline if the season is going nowhere.
They could certainly deal him before the season, but that can only happen if they are content with Keion White taking on a full-time role on one side, and Anfernee Jennings and Joshua Uche platooning on the other side, and possibly Oshane Ximines (or someone like that) in reserve. If those players are healthy and the coaches are happy, then you would look to deal Judon on the market. The compensation would be somewhere between a second and a fifth, likely in the middle. Depends on how much his new contract demands are going into his age 33 year in 2025. The timing is fine. If a contender doesn't like their pass rush, or suffers a big injury, they would be plenty desperate to solidify their pass rush.
Godchaux is more complicated. Nobody is really banging the drum to trade for an interior run defender. There could be a team near the deadline that wanted to solidify their run defense, if it was a glaring weakness. That usually doesn't happen at this time a year, but you can't rule it out. Still, even if the Patriots wanted to deal Godchaux right now, I'm not sure they could find a taker - especially since he wants a new deal.
The Patriots have almost zero depth against the run on the interior with Lawrence Guy still a free agent. Godchaux knows that, and is likely using that as leverage. How much do the Patriots care about winning as many games as possible in Mayo's first season? If they're all in on the Mayo plan, I could see the Patriots giving Godchaux a bump with incentives and more guaranteed money.
Would it be a total shock to see both Judon and Godchaux dealt at some point this year? No, and that would mean the Patriots were embracing their draft, develop and retain philosophy.
The two veterans wouldn't fit into that, and the youth movement would be off and running.