While some might take it as a foreboding sign that both goalie Jeremy Swayman and the Bruins declined the salary arbitration option last week, it’s actually quite the contrary. Instead, the mutual arbitration avoidance signals a commitment that both sides want to get a long-term deal done that will keep Swayman in Black and Gold for a long time to come.
The question becomes what that deal will ultimately look like as both sides continue to negotiate common ground with Swayman also free and open to receive offer sheets as a restricted free agent now past the arbitration window. WEEI morning host Jermaine Wiggins had his ideas about Swayman’s potential number on Monday’s Greg Hill Show as he freely spoke of New York Islanders goalie Igor Shesterkin as a comparable after signing an eight-year, $66-million contract that will pay him $8.825 million per season.
Wiggy: "What is taking so long?" Ullmark is gone, but Swayman still doesn't have a contract. Will a contract be soon? If so, how much? @WEEI pic.twitter.com/Q2jXyUEqDm
— The Greg Hill Show (@TheGregHillShow) July 8, 2024
All due respect to Wiggy, as he’s a great guy and actually a pretty good men’s hockey league player, but Swayman is not even close to a comparable with Shesterkin and Winnipeg Jets netminder Connor Hellebuyck (seven years, $59.5 million) at this point in his career. It’s easy for many to simply say “just pay him his money” and hand him eight years, $64 million that will pay him $8 million per season, and undoubtedly Swayman is in a good bargaining position with ex-goalie hug partner Linus Ullmark already shipped away to the Ottawa Senators.
But let’s just look at Shesterkin for comparison’s sake because the 31-year-old Hellebuyck is in a different stratosphere as a two-time Vezina Trophy winner at this point in his career who’s also been a Vezina finalist four different times. The 28-year-old Shesterkin has topped 50 games started the last three seasons, has a career .921 save percentage, has a Vezina Trophy and has finished amongst the top-10 in Vezina Trophy voting in three different seasons.
The 25-year-old Swayman has started more than 40 games in an NHL season just once in his career and has never approached 50 games played with his 44 games played a career-high last season. Swayman finished amongst the Vezina Trophy voting for the first time this past season while finishing seventh overall, and his .919 career save percentage falls a little short of Shesterkin as well.
Honestly, the best comp for Swayman right now is the three-year, $15 million contract that Juuse Saros signed before fully taking over for Pekka Rinne in Nashville, just as Swayman is going to do this coming season. It’s also the $5 million per season that Ullmark had been making as the veteran goalie who annually started more games than Swayman in Boston until this past season.
To take it one step further, Swayman isn’t even a comparable with Saros at this point as he signed an eight-year, $61.92-million contract on July 1 that will pay him $7.74 million per season to be Nashville’s No. 1 guy between the pipes.
The 29-year-old Saros has topped 60 games the last three years with Nashville and has finished in the top 5 of Vezina Trophy voting those three seasons as well, even if his .917 career save percentage is a shade below Swayman at this point.
So, honestly, Swayman is probably even a notch below Saros as a comparable until he puts together a proven workhorse track record as a No. 1 netminder who can play 60 plus games, stay healthy and maintain his performance with the starter’s burden on his shoulders. The good news is that’s exactly what he wants to do moving forward with nobody else but the Boston Bruins.
“That's everything to me," said Swayman, when asked how important it is to remain a member of the Bruins as he looked ahead to the offseason back in May. "I think it's obvious how much I care about this organization, how much I care about this team and the city. And I wouldn't want it to be any other way. That's what allowed me to come to the rink every day and just give my absolute all because I know I'm representing more than myself and my family. I’m representing the city and an organization and a great history.
"You talk to guys around the league that don't have that experience, and I feel bad for them. So I couldn't be more happy to be a Bruin.”
But the point here is that the Bruins would be irresponsible, and maybe even a tad reckless, to pay Swayman like Shesterkin, Hellebuyck or even Saros until he’s actually done the same things as that goalie trio at the same high level he’s maintained in a pretty evenly split goalie tandem with Ullmark. Swayman obviously showed he could handle the playoff load while performing masterfully during the first two rounds against the Maple Leafs and Panthers this spring, and that’s certainly a checked box for him after posting a .933 save percentage this spring in 12 postseason games.
Jeremy Swayman’s just chillin pic.twitter.com/Lu2BCdhFoY
— Evan Marinofsky (@EvanMarinofsky) May 7, 2024
But it’s also just a month of work at the end of the day.
What if Swayman struggles to maintain that consistent performance over the course of a 60-plus-game season (or even 55 games) during the regular season? What If Swayman starts running into injury issues when the workload becomes heavier with the pressure that he needs to play behind a Bruins defense that relies on elite goaltending as part of their winning formula?
As Swayman famously said this season, “You can’t buy experience at Target”, and he simply doesn’t have the experience as a starter. This humble hockey writer truly believes Swayman has what it takes to be a franchise goalie with All-Star berths and Vezina Trophies in his future, but he needs to do it first before being held in that company.
The Bruins should get those answers before paying upwards of $7 million per season for Swayman, even after his maestro performance during the playoffs that gave Boston full confidence they could move Ullmark.
Maybe there’s a middle ground where Swayman could get a 3-4 year deal paying him $6 million per season that will allow him to get truly get paid at 29 years old as guys like Shesterkin, Hellebuyck and Saros did in the last season or two. No matter what happens, Swayman will be getting a significant bump from the $3.48 million contract he signed through arbitration last season.
That’s really the way this should go down if A) the Bruins are being truly responsible about contract negotiations and B) if Swayman’s camp is being realistic about comparable goaltenders, and the amount of money and term he should be looking at as a past co-starter that’s just now entering the franchise goalie phase of his NHL career.
Everybody wants to see Swayman get taken care of by the Bruins and they do have the cap space ($8.68 million, per our friends at Puck Pedia) to hand him a ridiculous contract but giving him a deal at this point that he hasn’t completely earned isn’t a good idea at this juncture.
