Brad Stevens talked to the media Tuesday, wrapping up the season and looking ahead to the upcoming draft. Boston has the 30th and 54th overall picks (the last pick in the first round, and the fifth from the final pick in the draft). This year, the first round of the draft is on Wednesday and the second round is on Thursday.
Here are the key things Stevens had to say about the draft, team building this summer, winning a championship, Kristaps Porzingis, and more.
-On the Porzingis injury:
“Kristaps is still in the middle of consulting with some different doctors and specialists but we anticipate surgery will be soon. And then we'll have more of an update for timeline of recovery after the surgery.”
Karalis’ analysis: Porzingis might have held out some hope of participating in Latvia’s Olympic qualifiers, but there's no way he’ll be able to contribute, so he’s going to have the surgery in the next few days.
According to the team, there's no other way to fix this particular injury. It’s not like rest is an option and maybe it’ll heal on its own. He needs surgery and it’ll take a while for him to get back into the swing of things.
The recovery will almost certainly bleed into training camp, especially since Boston’s camp will start a week early due to their preseason game in Dubai. So the sooner he get the surgery, the sooner he can get to healing. He can get the surgery done, rest for a little while, then go recover in Latvia and take it easy.
Porzingis might not be ready to start next season, so we should be aware that it might take him a little time to not only recover, but also return to NBA action.
- On the draft:
“If the right person is available at 30, then we will take them and if we have a couple of people that we think are still the right person, then we'll see what our options are and what kind of flexibility we have. I anticipate picking a couple picks and whether they're on roster or two-way and investing in young players, I just ... if they come in and crack our rotation, then they're really good. That'll be a good thing, too.”
Karalis’ analysis: I really don’t think the Celtics need a rookie on a guaranteed deal. The 30th pick will be due almost $2.1 million but with taxes Boston will be paying around $7 million, depending on how other contracts work out. It could be more.
So I will stress that Boston does not want to essentially spend top-two pick money on the final pick of the first round. They will trade down, or out, of this pick unless a miracle falls in their lap.
If they make this pick, it’s either (a) a player they are utterly shocked is still available, or (b) a draft and stash. Otherwise, they're doing everything they can to move the pick.
- On team building under the second apron rules:
“It's one of the reasons why last year was the time to trade, because that was the time we could aggregate and that's a big part of this. Now that you're over the second apron, you can’t aggregate in trades. So in both of our major trades last summer, that was part of it.
“It'll be interesting to see how it affects the league. Are there a lot less trades? That will be interesting to follow and look back and study over the next couple of years.”
…
“We'll always evaluate how to make our team better and we have the opportunity to tweak our team all the way up until February. Last year we ended up doing it in June and October and then there wasn't as much to do once we got to February. We have an opportunity over the next six months to figure that part out. But I think we would be crazy not to say the character and the foundation of this team is right. And let's see if we can be as consistent as we can, grow, develop, and get better. Try some new things on both ends of the floor to add some juice and jolt that way. And then see if we can pick up where we left off. … I don't anticipate major changes, at least early on, because I think this team deserves that.”
Karalis’ analysis: Here’s the quick translation: Most of these guys are coming back. There might be minor moves to make some tweaks, but that's about all.
I laid this all out yesterday, and Stevens basically confirmed it all today. They can’t aggregate any salaries to add to a trade, which means they're not making any significant trades. They're not moving anyone in their top six at this point, and moving someone beyond that makes no sense because they’d be lateral moves at best.
I’m not saying trades won’t happen. They're just not very likely. And Stevens even suggests that a lot of trades won’t happen at all across the league.
I’m very curious to see if this depresses player movement rather than enhances it. This CBA was designed to break up winning teams, prevent long dynasties, and put players into the player pool and give them fewer choices, thus sending them to less desirable spots.
For example, 10 teams are currently over the first apron, which means they can’t take back more salary than they send out in a trade. Another four teams are a few million away from the first apron, and they probably want to avoid any hard caps so they won’t take back more money in a deal.
So basically half the league is abiding by some kind of restriction, which leaves 16 teams to trade without much fear of a hard cap. Are they going to trade with each other? Not likely, because it’s the other 14 teams that have the good players the lower half of the league wants.
They can try to come up with a trade, but the rules limit how many players can be included in a deal, which means the apron teams are going to be less interested. Draft picks will carry a lot more weight in deals to make them interested, but how many are teams willing to part with in order to make the pot sweet enough?
Teams might just roll with the players they have for another year or two, choosing to hold on a little too long rather than not long enough.
Boston is in a good position to kind of sit back and watch how the league reacts to this new environment. They’ll watch how other teams make big trades (Paul George? Trae Young? Brandon Ingram?) and what the return is. Then they’ll figure out how it could have been done better or what loopholes might have been missed or created.
It’s a luxury they have right now. It’s not a bad position to be in considering the unique circumstances.
- On the difficulty of running it back
“All the stuff that showed true in the team and how the team pulled together and how the team responded to good and bad all the way through the season will be tested at a greater level next year, and we're all really well aware of that. And so how do we mentally prepare for that and emotionally prepare for that. And also we'll see how these injuries play out and when guys are going to be back and all that and try to put the best foot forward that we can for our team.”
…
“I think the guys that are part of that a part of the group that are back all have to understand that the challenge is greater. And the challenge, because again the target, human nature, all those things that are real. But, we also have to say okay, sometimes you need a jolt from within.”
Karalis’ analysis: This is going to be a new challenge for the Celtics. On one hand, the Celtics are returning more players from a championship team than most teams since free agency became a thing. That's going to make them the favorites next season.
On the other, the short turnaround, complacency, and a summer of basking in the afterglow of a championship works against them. As Joe Mazzulla said, “If someone tells you "Good job," that's just as dangerous as someone telling you you suck.” Believing your own hype can be an issue.
And the Celtics are now going to be the prime targets of every other team. They will not only get other teams’ best, other teams will be making moves with the Celtics in mind.
Winning gets harder every step of the way, and winning a championship increases that exponentially. Look at the Denver Nuggets. They lost a key player along the way and they faced a team specifically built to match up with them. Who knows if they could have beaten Boston in the Finals because they never got there.
It’s a cautionary tale, but also an unavoidable obstacle for Boston.
