I have been fond of telling my kids to get off the internet. Someone needs to remind Brandon Aiyuk there's value in that.
The San Francisco wideout is making news again this offseason for his work on the World Wide Web. This time, Aiyuk posted a video on TikTok (I don't get it, and you'll never make me) of himself talking with Commander's rookie QB Jayden Daniels, a former teammate at Arizona State, saying, 'They said they don't want me back."
Who are they? The 49ers, of course.
The caption for that post read, "Im laughing but im crying fr," (kids with their abbreviations and lack of punctuation. "fr" meaning for real). But is he? Aiyuk and his people have sent mixed messages about his desire to remain in San Fran since the Super Bowl loss, and the fact that all these wide receiver deals keep getting done has only strengthened Aiyuk's bargaining position and resolve; he skipped out on mandatory mini-camp. Per NFL Network (what's left of it), Aiyuk would like somewhere in the neighborhood of the contract Amon-Ra St. Brown signed with the Lions. That has $77 million in guarantees. A league source tells me he believes Aiyuk's number is higher and would push his guarantees into the mid to high 80s.
When you consider Brock Purdy's deal will need to be redone next offseason (assuming they keep and pay him), the 49ers will have to do some cap gymnastics to make it all work. That makes Aiyuk's situation one to watch, with a handful of teams no doubt willing to pay that man his money.
As for the compensation required, San Fran was looking for a high first-rounder in the most recent draft, but if the two sides reach an impasse, perhaps the reality becomes a second-rounder and a day three pick. Then again, teams might decide to wait it out and sign Tee Higgins when he undoubtedly reaches free agency next year.
So, is this where Patriots GM Eliot Wolf strikes, especially if that's the price? It's tempting, for sure, especially for an offense lacking difference-makers. Hell, as of today, do they have even one? My answer is no unless one of the kids blossoms. That's asking for a lot of second-, fourth-, and sixth-round picks (Polk, Baker, Douglas) this early in their careers and without a Mahomes or Brady throwing them the football.
Aiyuk would immediately change the math opposing defenses would be required to use, thus creating better matchups for the youngsters, Kendrick Bourne (my guess is he starts the year on PUP) and Hunter Henry. And when I think of it in that regard, I'm making that push. Aiyuk is just 26, coming off a nearly 1,400-yard season where he averaged 17.9 a catch, second-best in the NFL. Now, that's the proper weaponizing of an offense in desperate need.
The counter? You could argue the Pats aren't ready for Aiyuk, either in their ability to consistently get him the ball — that led to some of his unhappiness in San Francisco even before the contract talks bogged down — or in the logic of giving up cost-controlled picks for a player whose timeline is far more accelerated than the one it appears this organization is on or should be on.
An added argument against this is whether or not it blocks the progression of Polk and Baker. What if one of them is the next post-first-round success story at that position? A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, St. Brown, Puka Nacua, Nico Collins, and Michael Pittman all finished with over 1,000 yards this past season, and all were selected in the second round or lower. Does Wolf bet on the work he and his staff did on this draft class, or does he decide the proven commodity is far more valuable, even with the cost and the $$$$? Drake Maye ultimately may be Wolf's signature move, for good or bad, but being this aggressive this early with someone of Aiyuk's skill level would undoubtedly enter the chat.
Of course, this could be moot if the 49ers hold firm. They still control Aiyuk's rights, picking up his 5th-year option ($14.12 million) for this season. The team could slap franchise or transition tags on him for a couple years after that. But they did spend a couple of draft picks on wideouts, including their first-rounder on Ricky Pearsall. Preparing for the future? Or was that more about the now? The next couple of months will tell that tale.
LUCKY LAWRENCE
I've seen a fair amount of criticism of the Jaguars for signing Trevor Lawrence to an extension worth $275 million over five years. Ummm, what were they supposed to do? They picked him number one in 2020, and while he hasn't ascended as quickly as some might have predicted (he was considered the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck), there's still time for Lawrence to take the next step, especially when you consider his rookie season was an unmitigated disaster through no fault of his own (the loathsome Urban Meyer ran that program back into expansion territory).
I won't argue that Lawrence has yet to live up to the pre-draft billing, but two seasons ago, he authored a hell of a playoff comeback win over the Chargers, then pushed the Chiefs to the brink the following round. I'd bet on that, especially when you consider the alternative. Prior to his arrival, the Jags rolled out guys like Blake Bortles, Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon, Jake Luton, and Nick Foles. It went as poorly as those names would suggest (except that one Bortles season that was clearly the anomaly).
Lawrence showed the toughness you want from your highest-paid player. In 2023, he played through various injuries, including a high ankle sprain, a sprained A/C joint, and a knee issue that may have required surgery (the quarterback played coy on that one). Before all those problems added up, the Jags were 8-3. Not too shabby.
Now entering his third year in Doug Pederson's system, the time is now.
"I learned this back when I went to Green Bay as a player under Mike Holmgren: It takes three to four years," said Pederson. "It takes that time to develop into the quarterback that you want to become, or you want for your team. And it's just not an overnight deal. It's not a plug-and-play deal. Some teams, some guys are going to have success, but there is that just understanding the game and learning the game and studying the game.
"It's the encouraging part as an offensive staff and just myself now going into that third year (with Lawrence). This is kind of this jump year that he can have moving forward."
Lawrence will need to cut down his turnovers and improve on third down (he hit just 38% of his passes on the money down), but the tools are all there to find another level. And if he doesn't? The contract has been structured such that Lawrence doesn't start making $50 million or more until 2029, which happens to be when there are no more guaranteed dollars left in the deal.
SNAKE EYES?
This shouldn't surprise you, but the quarterback "battle" in Las Vegas has gotten off to an underwhelming start. Holdover Aidan O'Connell and free agent Gardner Minshew didn't exactly catch the media's attention for their performance during OTAs and mandatory mini-camp. Yes, I understand these sessions are far more about teaching a new offense (Luke Getsy coming to LV from Chicago) than evaluation, but head coach Antonio Pierce sure would have liked to see one of the two jump off the page. Alas, that's not what happened, and the Raiders should know better. O'Connell and Minshew are cut from a similar cloth. Neither possesses a big arm or elite athleticism. The only real difference? O'Connell is entering year two, while Minshew has been around the block a few times (Vegas is his 4th team).
It makes you wonder why the Raiders weren't more aggressive in pursuing a signal caller in this year's draft. Yes, there was reported interest in Jayden Daniels, but if you read deeper into that story, it was unlikely that the former LSU star was their first desire. So they're rolling with a journeyman and a young prospect who feels like he has all the makings of being that himself. With Davante Adams on a megabucks deal but aging - he turns 32 in December - it feels like a waste of what's left of his prime, but when you can stand pat and take an undersized tight end (Brock Bowers), who's really a big slot receiver, you have to do it, I guess (sarcasm).
For what it's worth, on that front, Adams praised Bowers.
"Yeah, that's BM, man. That's what I call him, BM, that's the businessman," said Adams to reporters last week. "He doesn't care about nothing else other than just locking in on football. And I could see it in his eyes. I tried to tell a joke and get him to laugh talking to the rookies, did a little panel with him a couple of weeks ago. And I mean, sitting there stone-faced, didn't laugh at the thing I said. And so, I was like, this is BM right here. I told him that (yesterday), I gave him his nickname. So, I definitely know. I see what he's about; I've seen the tape. He's a big, strong dude, and he's focused and driven, so the sky's the limit for him."
Great, but if whoever's playing QB can't distribute the ball properly, Bowers, Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and the rest of the receiving crew will be shiny ornaments on a car that struggles to run.
As an aside, "BM" is not a great nickname. If the offense tanks and Bowers struggles, I think opposing fan bases, and maybe even those in the Black Hole, may twist that into something no one wants. Or does, depending on where you sit.